Wow. 17.63.
I’m trying to put into perspective how overwhelmingly ridiculous that swim is. In the very first article I wrote for SwimSwam, I talked a bit about how much certain people dropped records by. It was only looking at LCM events, but the takeaway was that taking 3% off a record is a tremendous amount of time that’s only happened 12 times in the modern era – by people that we consider truly legendary in their respective events (Phelps, Peirsol, Mary T, Tom Jager, etc.). But even there, this was only looking at record drop. As these giants of the sport changed their events, the world followed – so they were never as far ahead of their competition as these numbers might suggest. When Phelps swam a 49, there was another 49 in the same heat. When Peirsol swam the 1:51.9, Irie was 1:52.5 right there. The drops in the records are huge, but the gaps against the competition is smaller.
When Caeleb Dressel came onto the scene, the fastest time ever swum in the 50y free was Cesar Cielo’s 18.47. Cielo is now the second fastest all-time, but a whopping 0.84s back. The magnitude of that margin is difficult to comprehend. 4.55%. This would be the 2nd largest gap in the original article, but there’s nobody else in that gap. A full 4.55% back to the second fastest person ever. Ryan Held is an Olympic gold medal-winning sprinter, the fourth fastest all-time in this event, and the NCAA final reminded me of the Hulk tossing around Loki like a ragdoll.
4.55% is just a number though. How does that compare to other events? Let’s take a look at some people we consider untouchably dominant in their events. Katie Ledecky in the distance freestyles. In the 800m free, she’s nearly 10 seconds faster than anybody has ever been. She’s taken distance swimming to a completely new level. And yet, how fast would she have to be to equal Dressel’s dominance? 7:51.63.
I took a look at all the other events where currently we think of somebody as completely owning (being at least 1% ahead of the next fastest ever), and this for me really puts in perspective what Dressel’s time really means.
| Swimmer/Event | 2nd Best Ever | Their Best | Gap to 2nd | What it would take to be 4.55% ahead |
| Dressel, 50y free | 18.47 | 17.63 | 4.55% | — |
| Sjostrom, 50m fly | 25.07 | 24.43 | 2.55% | 23.93 |
| Ledecky, 1650y free | 15:24.35 | 15:03.31 | 2.28% | 14:42.31 |
| Peaty, 100m breast | 58.46 | 57.13 | 2.28% | 55.8 |
| Peaty, 50m breast | 26.52 | 25.95 | 2.15% | 25.31 |
| Ledecky, 1000y free | 9:10.77 | 8:59.65 | 2.02% | 8:45.72 |
| Ledecky, 800m free | 8:14.10 | 8:04.79 | 1.88% | 7:51.63 |
| Dressel, 100y free | 40.76 | 40 | 1.86% | 38.91 |
| Ledecky, 500y free | 4:28.90 | 4:24.06 | 1.80% | 4:16.67 |
| Ledecky, 1500m free | 15:38.88 | 15:25.48 | 1.43% | 14:56.18 |
| Manuel, 100y free | 46.2 | 45.56 | 1.39% | 44.1 |
| Murphy, 100y back | 44.07 | 43.49 | 1.32% | 42.07 |
| Liu, 200m fly | 2:03.41 | 2:01.81 | 1.30% | 1:57.80 |
| Dressel, 200y im | 1:39.38 | 1:38.13 | 1.26% | 1:34.86 |
| Ledecky, 400m free | 3:59.15 | 3:56.46 | 1.12% | 3:48.27 |
| Murphy, 200y back | 1:36.81 | 1:35.73 | 1.12% | 1:32.41 |
| Kalisz, 400y im | 3:35.76 | 3:33.42 | 1.08% | 3:25.95 |
| Phelps, 200m fly | 1:52.70 | 1:51.51 | 1.06% | 1:47.57 |
| Bolt, 100m Dash | 9.69 | 9.58 | 1.14% | 9.25 |
Would love to see the comprison with Bob Beamon’s long jump in 1968. Dressel is clearly head and shoulders above the rest of the world, but we know how that works, once some see what is possible the gap quickly closes.
Honestly, the guy is a great swimmer. But don’t bother benchmarking him in yards swimming. I’ll tip my hat if he continues his dominance on the world stage, against the rest of the world in a standard pool. Not in the delusional bubble of yards that nobody else does.
Fascinating conversation here. Two factors I’d like to throw out to get opinions on…in my estimation there has been much more improvement in pool technology over the last 30 years, as opposed to track technology. Comparing times over eras (and the resultant drops) has to include the differences in the move towards a neutral venue differential.
The other thing to keep in mind when talking about apex performances…science has ‘proven’ many things to be impossible, just to watch someone ‘unprove’ them.
I would argue that all of these yard times don’t have nearly as much context. Especially on the women’s side. More international men swim US college than do women. And all college swimmers are done by age 21 or 22. So when using the yard times, a large set of international, over 22 swimmers are being excluded. I can’t wait to see the update to this article after long course season.
In comparison, contextualize the duration of Janet Evans world records in the women’s 400 m freestyle (22 Sep 1988 to 12 May 2006), women’s 800 m freestyle (20 Aug 1989 to 16 Aug 2008), women’s 1500 m freestyle (26 Mar 1988 to 17 Jun 2007).
Katie’s real 800-meter time is not in the article, sadly. Article shows only what she would be doing if she swam with such a wide margin — that mythical time.
Because more numbers:
If we take Dressel out of the equation:
Tom Jaeger swam 19.05 in 1990. Cielo swam 18.47 in 2008 or a 3.04% difference. This translates to an average of a .18% drop per year. At that rate of 50 free progression it will take over 25 years for anyone to hit Dressel’s mark…obviously another Dressel-esque swimmer could come along and manage it, but it’s crazy to think about the fact that this swim might be 25-30 years ahead of its time.
I’m convinced people even in the swimming world don’t realize what just happened. This makes swims like Ledeckys 3:56/8:04 and Peaty’s 57.1 look kinda trivial in terms of how far ahead of the field they are (not thaf they are…). You’re looking at a guy that’s going virtually near the fastest ever time not including Dressel, and he’s getting obliterated by more than a body length in a 50 yard race.
Even during Peaty’s 25.9, people were at his thighs, and that’s in a race that’s 8-9 seconds longer than this. Held at full extension was at his ankles at best.
I don’t think is fair comparing Dressel with Ledecky and Peaty swims.Dressel didn’t fight against the world best.I still believe Dressel would win by a fair margin, but wouldn’t be a full second.Cielo swam 18.47 in his junior year wearing a FS Pro.In his senior year, he would be swimming in a Jaked and by his own account(he told in an interview he gained half second per 50), probably a half second faster.Manaudou 20.2 is way faster than Cielo.
But nothing of that diminished the deed what Dressel did.An amazing swim.
Manauduo’s time is an interesting comparison…hopefully we’ll get a serious SCM swim from Dressel and see what he can do in the 50. If we convert his time (which SCY to SCM in 50 conversions tend to me relatively accurate) you’ve got Dressel at a 19.56. which is still a gap of 3.45% or almost a body length (about 1.78m).
It’s also worth noting that Manauduo’s time was done when he was 24 and near/at his peak. A more apt comparison in regards to developmental points might be his 2012 SCM time of 20.70 (Afterall, the SCY 50 is really just a comparison of college-aged kids). If we take that time, there is a pretty good likelihood of a… Read more »
If a jaked cut of 0.5 from Cielo, it would also cut 0.5 off of Dressel. He’d be approaching 16 as cielo is approaching 17…
The difference between Dressel and Cielo (who still had the advantage of a body suit) is 4.55%. That mark is over double the next closest percentage difference. This swim is unfathomable.
And to say He didn’t swim against the worlds best is foolish. His times blow the fastest ever lcm swimmers out of the water (Bousquet, Cielo, Morozov, Adrian). That is pretty much the worlds best.
This is what I mean when I say I don’t think people quite truly understand how massive it is. There’s no way to contextualize it. He… Read more »
PVDH,
of course, Dressel would be faster in a Jaked, but we don’t know how much.I just think you are reading too much in yards time.What I tried to tell you is: Cielo still improved(a lot) after that swim, and had tools(at the time)that could make him swam a lot faster in his senior year, but he went pro.We get Dressel ‘amazing swim’ at his best, but we don’t have Cielo or Manaudou at their best in yards.At his last NCAA time(2008) Cielo has the best start in the world(Just see his 18.47 swim, his first 25 were only 0.02 slower than Dressel first 25), and he got a lot faster than that in his swimming phase.What I am… Read more »
I’m not reading into anything or giving a subjective/opinion based prediction. I’m giving you a mathematical breakdown. Cielos 21.32 is not much different than an 18.47. Cielo didn’t improve that much in the time from March 2008 to Beijing. That’s pretty much the same level.
Didnt phelps go 1:52.09 as his second best 200m fly at 2007 worlds?
They mean next fastest person.