Braden’s Opinion on Which Swimmers Will Make the 2024 U.S. Olympic Team

On Friday, we published our way-too-early predictions for the 2024 U.S. Olympic Team Trials. We received overwhelming feedback about many of our predictions, so as promised, all seven writers who picked their Olympic teams will be breaking down some of their selections.

Yanyan, who organized this project, kicked things off, and now it’s my turn to address some of the questions I got on my picks in the comments.

• In case you forgot, all of our Olympic Trials picks can be found here.
• See Yanyan’s breakdown of her picks here.

Reminder of My Picks

Men’s Picks:

Women’s Picks

My take on Regan Smith

My process was basically this: I went through and made all of my picks in a vacuum, and then went event-by-event and nailed down on things like “where I think they’re going to shift their focus” and “event conflicts” and made some semi-educated guesses.

That’s where my Regan Smith outcome came from.

I think two divergent things will happen between now and the 2024 Olympic Trials: I think Smith will focus more-and-more on the 200 meter races, and I think Claire Curzan will focus more-and-more on the 100-meter races.

When Regan left Stanford for Arizona State, she said that she felt the need for more volume, and to me, that pushes her more-and-more toward the 200 fly and 200 back, and away from the 100 fly and the 100 back where she has been so good in her career.

Inside Braden’s head: I probably should have picked her to win the 200 fly.

I know she’s got the American Record in the 100 back. I know she swam well in that event at the 2022 Trials. I know all of these things. I just think that she will find more-and-more comfort over 200 meters as Paris approaches, and ultimately I think that means she drops the 100 fly, and maybe drops the 100 back.

The good news for her (I guess?) is that she’s not particularly good at freestyle, so in spite of her versatility across fly and back, she doesn’t have to balance relay swims. I think there’s a chance that she starts to explore the 200 IM as well, though that event is going to be a logjam in the next few years.

Gretchen Walsh Is Not a Short Course Specialist

While I recognize that our readers abroad like to label any NCAA success story as a short course specialist (including, recently, the World Champion in the 200 and 400 long course meter IMs Leon Marchand), Gretchen Walsh is unequivocally-not a short course specialist.

No swimmer who swims a 53.74 in the 100 free at 16 (which, by the way, is faster than the Australian record for 16-year olds) is not a short course specialist.

Did she have an adaptation period to get back to that level in long course at Virginia? Absolutely. Does it seem like she’s figured it out now? It sure does.

I hear the arguments about Abbey Weitzeil and Simone Manuel. Weitzeil had a great meet in Knoxville (I wrote about that here), but I think America has to reset expectations. Weitzeil’s meet was great, but getting back to her best isn’t good enough in 2024. A much-younger Torri Huske was 52.92 at Worlds last summer, which is .07 faster than Weitzeil’s personal best.

While I think Weitzeil showed that somewhere in the neighborhood of 53.00, which will grab a relay spot, is in reason for her, I just think there’s too much young talent progressing for her to get individual spots there. If she decides to go full-in for the 50, do a Bruno Fratus or a Kasia Wasick, I would gladly change my pick there, but that’s generally not the American swimming way.

As for Simone, while it’s great to see her back in the water, we have to pick based on the information available, and what we’ve seen so far doesn’t indicate that she’s going to be back at 52-mid. It’s definitely too early to write her off, but it’s also too early to declare her a favorite. Let’s see how that progresses.

A Wave of Youth

I think 2024 is going to see a massive wave of youth swimmers interrupting the established order. Between the pandemic, the changed motivation patterns, a generation of swimmers who have hung around longer than most we’ve seen in the past, and a ridiculous wave of teenage talent, I think that there are going to be a lot of teenagers on this team.

Thomas Heilman to make the squad in the 100 and 200 fly doesn’t seem like that much of a reach to me. The 200 fly continues to be a weaker event for the US, and since he’s been training with Gary Taylor, his 200s have been his biggest growth.

His Winter Juniors times in short course yards were ridiculous, and came off an equally-ridiculous long course season (51.98 and 1:56.52 in the flys at Junior Pan Pacs). I just don’t see, with his momentum, how that doesn’t become 50-point and 1:54-point, at least, by 2024.

I was shocked that I was the only one to pick Kaii Winkler. That kid has momentum and seems fully-focused on long course performance right now. Maybe 4th was too high. But I think he makes the team.

After his 1:47.3 in Knoxville, I’ve got Henry McFadden just above his future Stanford teammate Rex Maurer in the 200 free. This is another event that’s due for a turnover in the American ranks, and I think we’re going to see it in a big way with lots of fresh faces. The Carson Foster pick there is based on him swimming it; if he doesn’t, stick Maurer in my lineup.

I’ll acknowledge that Camille Spink is a bit out of left field. She had big drops in 2022 and I think Tennessee training will suit her.

Wherefore art thou Caeleb?

The exercise was not to hedge. If I think that Caeleb is 70% to come back, but if he comes back, he wins everything, I can’t put him 2nd because of that 30% uncertainty. That’s just not how this game works.

So on balance, my crystal ball tells me this: Caeleb will come back, swim a light schedule in Fukuoka in 2023, return to his normal lineup in Paris (sans a mixed medley), and then ride off on his tractor into the sunset. I think he’d be satisfied ending his career now, but I also think he can muster the passion for one more big run. And if he does, he’s still the favorite in his events.

No Olivia Smoliga?

Olivia Smoliga will be just shy of her 30th birthday when the 2024 Olympics roll around. While the 100 backstroke used to be a veterans game, for the last decade it has been dominated by the overwhelming cycle of youth.

Even if I don’t think that Regan Smith will swim this, that still leaves Claire Curzan, Katharine Berkoff, Rhyan White, maybe Gretchen Walsh, and Isabelle Stadden to fight through.

Smoliga’s better chance is if she sneaks on to a 400 free relay, but there’s a lot of youth there too and I just don’t see it.

We all love Smoliga, too. She gives great interviews, she’s fun to watch – but that doesn’t convince me that I’m wrong.

Women’s 200 IM Picks

This one was really tough. The US has three great choices here (and probably more to come): the defending long course World Champion Alex Walsh, the defending short course World Champion Kate Douglass, and the defending long course World Championship bronze medalist Leah Hayes.

They’re all still clearly getting better. Hayes is the youngest of the group. Douglass seems like she’s got the most untapped upside from her current best pick. They’re all current or future Virginia Cavaliers (though Hayes isn’t committed to arrive until after Paris).

I basically just went with the safest pick. None of the three in any position would surprise me at all.

What About Michael Andrew?

Swimming’s biggest enigma since Caeleb Dressel, Andrew doesn’t seem fully focused on swimming right now. That said, he’s so talented, and by the nature of his training, if/when he decides to go back full-in, he can catch back up in a hurry.

If nothing else, he’s at least staying very active.

What’s he going to swim? What’s he going to make the team in? I don’t know. The #2 spot in the 50 still seems like his. He would’ve made the team in the 100 fly in 2021 if he had swum the event at Trials. The 100 breast is an event where an obvious second behind Nic Fink hasn’t emerged.

I think he drops the 200 IM. I think he swims the other 3. I think he makes 2 of them. I don’t know which 2.

Shaine Casas‘ Conundrum

This was another “but the schedule!” scenarios. Casas is immensely talented. In a bubble, he’s a contender for the team in the 100 fly, 100 back, 200 fly, 200 back, 200 IM, and 100 free, at least.

We’ve seen him struggle at selection meets in the past, but putting that aside, he has some choices to make with the schedule. Specifically, does he want to run the 100 fly on the same day as the 200 IM final.

Something tells me that Eddie Reese and Wyatt Collins will talk him out of that. It’s not the worst double, because the 100 fly prelims are alone (the morning of the 200 IM final), and the 100 fly semi-final comes after the 200 IM final. But it’s right after.

I don’t know, I don’t see it happening. I think he’ll swim the two backstroke races, the 200 IM, and maybe take a prelims flyer on the 100 free to see if he can get a look for the Games. To me, that’s the smart schedule.

What Are We Gonna Do About the Men’s Mid-D and D Frees?

I’m not going to lie, these were the hardest events for me to pick. Bobby Finke was the easy call at the top of the 800/1500 free fields. If he stays healthy, I don’t think anybody is touching him in those races.

But there’s a lot of good talent behind him, and it’s not entirely clear who’s going to emerge. Especially with the Jakes, both of whom have to show us still how they’re going to adapt to new training this season (Mitchell at Florida, Magahey still at Georgia but post-Bauerle retirement). And how many of them will make the team in the 800 free relay?

I went young on the 200 free. Johnston feels more dialed in to the 800 than the 1500 to me, but it feels like it would be a bad decision to leave Clark off the team.

So I don’t know. I’m not sure if those picks were all intellectually consistent. But I made them. And feel as good about them as I can.