With mid season invites in the bag, pretty much every team in the country has had a meet that they’ve taken seriously. This means that we can finally start to get some useful information by comparing team’s times so far. The easiest way to do this is with our Swimulator. The Swimulator takes everyone’s top times so far this season and scores out a national meet respecting individual event limits and reasonable event choices (swimmers can’t do two events in a row). No diving is included.
For the men, this puts Cal on top over Texas by a score of 517.5 to 442.5. Despite the advantage to Cal, this is actually a good result for Texas. At this point last year, Cal had a 112.5 point advantage over Texas. Cal went on to outscore Texas at nationals by 69.5 points in the swimming events at nationals, but Texas won the meet with on the back of their 81 diving points. None of Texas’s divers graduated. This year Cal are ahead by only 75 points. Both teams have significantly more points in the Swimulator rankings than they did at this point last year.
Cal project to 188 relay points, they have a top 2 ranking in every relay and the top ranking in 3 relays. Texas project to 154 relay points. They have a top 3 time in 4 of the 5 relays including a #1 ranking in the 800 free relay. Their main failing is the 200 medley relay where they currently rank 10th.
Cal have 13 individual swimmers projected to score, including 6 swimmers with 25 or more points. Texas have 16 swimmers ranked in scoring range with 5 projected to score 25 or more.
Texas and Cal’s improved totals may be a bad sign for Indiana and NC State, last year’s 3rd and 4th place teams. Indiana are only 34.5 points ahead of where they were at this point last year (this year: 189, last year: 154.5) when they went on to score 324 swimming points at nationals. Cal are 45 points ahead of last year, Texas are 82.5 points better.
NC State are behind their pace from last year at this point (this year: 265, last year 304). The gap to the top teams is still closeable, especially for Indiana with their diving strength, but the hill NC State and Indiana need to climb is bigger than last year.
One team that jumps off the page is Missouri at #7. Missouri are unranked in our current power rankings, so 7th is impressive. Last year at this point they had 104 points in the Swimulator rankings and ended up with only 29 at nationals, so some drop off again this year wouldn’t come as a big surprise. Still, with 185 points they have a significant head start on where they were last year.
The most dramatic drop off came from Arizona State who sit at only 72 points vs the 150 they had at this point last year. ASU lost some talent to transfers and their top returning swimmer Cameron Craig has yet to race this season.
If you are interested to see the full event by event projections check out the full Swimulator page here. The event projections are below the points. Just scroll down. Below the event projections are individual swimmer point totals sorted by team.
I’ll be doing write ups on the women’s rankings and some of the conference rankings in the coming days, but if you want to see those rankings before those articles are written, feel free to run the simulation you are interested in yourself.
One final thought: this type of ranking isn’t intended as an exact prediction of what will happen at the end of the season. It’s intended as a starting point when thinking about what will happen at the end of the year. This is a baseline. If your expectation is that a team will do better or worse, look at their swimmers current rankings and think about which swimmers are likely to move up or down between now and the end of the season.
Swimulator Projected Points
Swimulator projections do not include diving
| Team | Swimulator Points | Swimulator Points At this Point Last Season | Swimming Points at Nationals Last Year | Diving Points at Nationals Last Year | |
| 1 | California | 517.5 | 472.5 | 437.5 | 0 |
| 2 | Texas | 442.5 | 360 | 368 | 81 |
| 3 | NC State | 265 | 304 | 385 | 0 |
| 4 | Michigan | 242 | 220 | 168.5 | 0 |
| 5 | Stanford | 190 | 223.5 | 205 | 0 |
| 6 | Indiana | 189 | 154.5 | 324 | 98 |
| 7 | Missouri | 185 | 104 | 29 | 0 |
| 8 | Texas A&M | 144 | 113 | 34 | 41 |
| 9 | Tennessee | 138 | 131.5 | 67 | 56 |
| 10 | Arizona | 136 | 96 | 64 | 0 |
| 11 | Southern Cali | 135.5 | 154 | 240 | 13 |
| 12 | Alabama | 135 | 190.5 | 95 | 0 |
| 13 | Florida | 128.5 | 177 | 347 | 0 |
| 14 | Georgia Tech | 113 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Georgia | 79 | 65 | 129 | 0 |
| 16 | Arizona St | 72 | 150 | 45 | 0 |
| 17 | Florida St | 67 | 52 | 42 | 0 |
| 18 | Notre Dame | 61 | 25 | 26 | 3 |
| 19 | Grand Canyon | 57 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 | Utah | 54 | 28 | 10 | 0 |
| 21 | Louisville | 50 | 61.5 | 156 | 0 |
| 22 | Harvard | 32 | 15 | 58 | 0 |
| 23 | Virginia | 23 | 9 | 19 | 0 |
| 24 | Minnesota | 21 | 18.5 | 53 | 14 |
| 25 | Brigham Young | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 | Missouri St. (M) | 14 | 17.5 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 | UCSB | 14 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 | Denver | 14 | 78 | 31 | 0 |
| 29 | Pittsburgh | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 | Kentucky | 8 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 | Duke | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 31 | East Carolina | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 33 | Hawaii | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 34 | West Virginia | 2 | 0 | 2.5 | 0 |
| 34 | Wisconsin | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Super excited to see the write ups of Division 2 and 3, not enough attention at those meets. Especially with that crazy Denison invite. When will those be up?
D3 will be up tomorrow morning. D2 either this weekend or Monday.
This weekend or Monday?! I’m not that patient!
Thanks for the write ups!
Was looking at D2. Going to wait until the Tampa Invite (which is this weekend) is in the system before doing a write up. Seems silly to post a ranking without Nova Southeastern having a mid season rest meet. Sorry. Going to have to keep waiting a few more days.
Cal and Texas are obviously the big two in the comments right now… But i do get the sense that NCState might be able to overtake Indiana this year for 3rd.
Some of their stars didn’t look to be tapered and only slightly rested for the IU invitational.
Are we really thinking that the reigning 800 free relay national champs won’t have a top 3 relay? Or that Justin ress… Who is currently ranked outside the top 8 in all his events, won’t be back in the top3? Or Jakob molack?
I think that’s a solid 60-100 points between the relay and those two ‘s 3 individual races.
I can’t think of anyone on IUs side that… Read more »
Finnerty, Lanza and Apple are all going to score another 20pts each and their relays I would score them an extra 50 so now add that 110 to the 189 and then add the diving in and you are going to get at least 350 points. NC state will be 320-350 their relays are already at 152 so maybe an extra 20 at best. 170 points in 5 relays is a second place avg. so I dont think anyone but Cal can beat 170. Ress will be a 45 pt scorer. I dont see the math that can get them over 350. NC state vs IU is the same as Texas vs Cal, the difference is the diving.
This is lanza last ncaa he even left SC world team he is probably going all out for both fly and 200im and he had impressive times on scm this year
NC State definitely wasnt fully tapered for this meet. They come in with a much deeper team this year, I don’t know if it is enough to make a difference against Indiana but I hope so, I would love to see that fight for third.
If Cal is to break the Texas streak, this is the year to do it. But they’ll need some step-up performances from guys like Hoffer, Mefford, Julian, Quah, Carr, Grieshop, Sendyk, etc to support Seliskar. And Whitley needs to deliver, too.
After this year, Texas looks awfully tough to beat for the next few years, with their loaded 2018 and 2019 classes, plus Carson Foster in 2020…
Wouldn’t it be great if Carson de-committed from Texas and ended up at CAL? Oh the drama!
Who was the last top 5 or top 10 recruit to decommit?
Hanna House comes to mind, but I feel like there’s been one since…
Dakota Luther? And we have seen a lot of transfers in/out of ASU recently though not top 10… I was mostly speaking in jest too 😜
Carson already committed to Cal but then de-committed. Wouldn’t it be awesome if he then de-committed to Texas to re-commit to Cal!!!! Has that ever happened??
Mefford made two A finals last year LOL and Hoffer has the best time of all people returning in the 100 free. He won’t fail like he did last year.
Has there been any significant relay DQ’s on the mens side recently? Like ones that would effect who wins? I know its happened on the womens side….It cost Stanford the title the year before Ledecky got there and I know Cal has had multiple relays DQ at NCAAs
Ummm I can’t think of any recently that impacted the NCAA champion. NC State has had a few pretty high profile DQs in the past 5 years, including one that was sort of infamously overturned at NCAAs. That’s the biggest I can think of.
Tennessee women last year had a DQ and the Erica Brown thing where she swam the wrong stroke and they missed the top 16.
Matt Josa had two DQs in prelims and both swims were A final qualifying. Didnt effect the team standings in the end.
Thats all I can think of now it still happens.
Hurry up and post the womens so we can talk about how Stanford isnt going to win.
Post will be tomorrow morning. Here’s the current ranking: https://staging.swimswam.com/swimulator/?type=conference&gender=Women&division=D1&conference=Nationals&season=2019&taper=Top+Time&date=Whole+Season&heats=16
Does Cal still have no diving scoring chances? Looks like we may be heading for another instance of Cal crushing the swim portion but getting denied by Texas divers.
They had a freshman and sophomore qualify for NCAAs last year, and they’ve now got platforms on campus, so I wouldn’t call it ‘no chance.’ They certainly will give up a lot of ground to Texas, though, and they don’t have any freshman divers this year.
If Cal could even get like 10-20 diving points that would be huge, and could make the difference. Should definitely keep an eye on if any of the Cal divers start performing better than last season.
Yeah, NCAAs could be THAT close again, like they were last year. I won’t claim to be a diving expert, but I do follow it more closely than most on this board. Connor Callahan is having a big year, he’s already broken the school record on the 1-meter with a 379.28 (though the judges at that meet seem to have been pretty generous).
It wouldn’t surprise me if he scored this year. I think 20 is probably a bridge too far. But, 5-10 is within a reasonable range.
Maybe a nit, but I have Texas scoring 70 points in diving in 2018 versus your tally of 81. I also believe that the Texas squad is playing a bit of possum with Haas, Katz, Pomajevich and Shebat, but ultimately will finish @ 25 points ahead of Cal with diving points being the critical difference. Cal will be the #1 swimming team and Texas the best combined team. But so much depends on tapers, health and nerves. Should be very exciting NCAAs.
Windle 45+Campbell 23+Cornish 13=81
Here’s a list of their places on each board.
https://staging.swimswam.com/2018-ncaa-mens-championships-individual-breakdown/
This year diving will not decide the meet.
Lol, when Texas has a reliable 70-80 point diving advantage over Cal there’s a pretty good chance of diving deciding the meet.
Pretty sure Longhorn meant the Horns would outscore Cal in the swimming part, and diving points won’t be needed to win.
Wrong again.
I’ve scored the NCAA meet for TX-CAL-IU-NCS, accounting for best times from this year and including best times from last year’s NCAA meet entry or meet. This includes diving. I’m not certain I’ve caught everything for the non-Texas teams, but it’s pretty close. I tended to give the benefit of the doubt to non-Texas swimmers and the opposite for Texas guys.
1. Texas 480
2. Cal 445
3. Indiana 407
4. NC State 318
IMO Texas is the team to beat. They return the most points, they added to that the best group of incoming freshmen (maybe ever), and they’ve filled critical holes like breaststroke.
These point totals look like what I would expect. Still with a margin for error if there is injury, DQs or someone flat out doesnt show up with their best swims when it counts.
FYI if you’re feeling lazier in the future, the Swimulator can also swimulate a similar meet: https://staging.swimswam.com/swimulator/?type=swimulate&gender=Men&division=D1&division1=D1&team1=Texas&season1=2019&meet1=Create+Lineup&division2=D1&team2=California&season2=2019&meet2=Create+Lineup&division3=D1&team3=Indiana&season3=2019&meet3=Create+Lineup&division4=D1&team4=NC+State&season4=2019&meet4=Create+Lineup
Some of the times at the end are junk ones though just because filling up 16 spots in each even is a lot for only four teams.
I have a feeling Katz and Shebat may combine for more than 26 at NC’s! I don’ t think anyone would take the under on that bet! Also, pending his health,
I think Krueger will score more than 0. Hoping Townley rounds into shape, as he has done the past 3 seasons. Anyone from Cal not listed, who is sick/injured, that should score at NC’s? Krueger
might be the wildcard here for the Horns.
That sounds more like wishful thinking than sharp analysis.
it’s not wishful thinking when it keeps happening. It’s a pretty safe bet that five time individual NCAA champion Haas will be right in the mix for titles In 3 events.
Shebat and Katz our life lead to score 30 points apiece in the backstroke events as both will likely A final again in the 200s and tShebat in the 100. Katz May very well A final that as well.
Krueger was as fast as Kibler two months ago and was sick last weekend. He has scoring timed from high school.
I have thought that this was going to be cals year but Texas will not go quietly in their home pool
Betting on the Texas big name guys to score more than what they are currently projected to seems like a safe bet. In my mind, Haas, Katz, and Shebat aren’t the question marks for Texas. The questions I have are around the less proven guys who are currently ranked to score big points. Can Scheinfeld do that again? Can Harty swim fast in March, not just December? Is Tate Jackson really 53 points good?
It’s worth noting that Texas got big point jumps from their stars at nationals vs their mid season swimulator score, but Texas’s actual team point total at nationals was only 8 points better than their midseason projection. That happened because the tier 2 guys fell back… Read more »
This is idle speculation, but my feeling is that Tate Jackson was well rested for this meet because he’s peaked at conference the last 2 years and hasn’t quite measured up at NCAAs. He’s otherwise been great the last couple years, and I expect him to match or duplicate these times at NCs with zero pressure to produce cuts at conference.
I’d agree with this. Texas is likely to qualify more than they can take, and as a result the final 4-5 guys who make the team I think are more likely to score than in most years.
Yes but these guys you are just talking about a few extra points here and there, they arent the guys in the A finals. Maybe 10-15pts in total.
Guys in that group include Krueger and Sam Stewart. Fair to call them wildcards but you could also argue Stewart could final in the 4 IM. 10-15 points here, diving there…pretty soon it adds up to real scoring.
Worth noting Texas beat cal by 13 points last year… id say the extra points make the difference
Its worth noting Cal and NC State both had more swimming points than Texas. The difference was diving.
Good points.
Krueger is a big unknown at this point. We don’t know if his issue is just an acute illness, or something that will really interrupt his training. He’s obviously a swimmer with immense talent. But let’s not forget: he’s gotta go at or near lifetime bests sometime in the 2nd semester just to qualify for NCAAs, and then turnaround quickly and drop some more time at NCAAs to score.
He’s a total wildcard – I think that’s the best way to describe it. At this point, I don’t have enough information to know whether I think he’ll score more than 0 points, but if you set the over/under at 15 right now for NCAAs, I’d take the under with information… Read more »
I also think wildcard is the right word for Krueger.
No one had an answer whether or not Cal has someone similar to Krueger, either injured or sick,
not listed as potential scorers?
Bay City Tex – we’re working on an article that takes a closer look at the top teams in order to answer questions along those lines. But to you answer your specific question, I’m not aware of any obvious potential scorers from Cal who missed the Georgia Invite. The Swimulator has 13 Cal men earning points, and that sounds about right.
Thanks. I look forward to the article.