Can Team USA Afford to Leave Caeleb Dressel Off the Worlds 4 x 200 Free Relay?

For years, fans have wondered what Caeleb Dressel could do if he were used on Team USA’s 4 x 200 freestyle relay. Due to two recent retirements and one medical hiatus, fans could see this wish fulfilled at the 2022 FINA World Championships in Budapest. In fact, given the 200 freestyle specialists Team USA will have to do without this summer, it might be difficult for the 2022 World Championships coaching staff to not include Dressel on the relay. Let’s break it down.

First, let’s review the major changes Team USA’s 4 x 200 freestyle relay has undergone since the 2016 Rio Olympic Games.

Last summer in Tokyo, the men’s 4 x 200 freestyle relay included only two members from the 2016 Games, then-rookies Townley Haas and Blake Pieroni (Pieroni swam prelims only in both Tokyo and Rio). The other members of the relay included Kieran Smith, Zach Apple, Andrew Seliskar, Drew Kibler, and Patrick Callan. It is worth noting that Pieroni finished 7th at US Olympic Trials in the 200 freestyle, but was added to the finals relay in Tokyo; Pieroni made the 2020 US Olympic Team by finishing 3rd in the 100 freestyle, earning a spot on the 4 x 100 freestyle relay, and getting a prelims swim on the 4 x 100 medley relay.

This week, Andrew Seliskar announced his retirement from swimming, just weeks after Townley Haas announced his retirement from the sport. In addition to Haas and Seliskar, Blake Pieroni announced he would miss the 2022 World Championship Trials in order to undergo knee surgery.

Haas, Seliskar, and Pieroni have all been prominent members on Team USA’s 4 x 200 freestyle relay at the 2018 Pan Pacific Championships and the 2019 FINA World Championships, with Haas and Pieroni also being integral parts of the team at the 2017 FINA World Championships. Meanwhile, Caeleb Dressel has remained on the bench, providing constant intrigue as to how he could impact the relay were he to swim on.

Dressel was not included on the 4 x 200 freestyle relay at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, which finished in a disappointing 5th place. Given that Great Britain finished just 0.03 off of the suited World Record from 2009, it would be ridiculous to say Dressel’s inclusion would have gotten Team USA the gold–but could he have gotten them on the podium?

Of course, we’ll never know; however, given that Team USA has now lost 3 of its top 200 freestylers, we return to our original question: Can the 2022 World Championships coaching staff justify leaving Dressel off the 4 x 200 free relay this summer in Budapest?

Scheduling Conflicts

At the World Championships, the men’s 4 x 200 freestyle relay falls on day 6. Not only is this well into the competition, but it is the same day as the prelims and semifinals of the men’s 100 butterfly and the men’s 50 freestyle.

In both 2017 and 2019 Dressel showed his endurance by winning 3 gold medals in a single session, winning the 50 free and 100 fly, as well as providing a vital butterfly leg to the mixed 4 x 100 medley relay. Putting Dressel in the 4 x 200 freestyle relay seems doable on paper as he only has to qualify top-8 in the 50 free and 100 fly before swimming the relay, though the 200 freestyle is a much more taxing event than than the 100 butterfly (relay starts notwithstanding).

Considering the event lineup, Dressel’s inclusion on the 4 x 200 freestyle relay only seems justifiable if Team USA is really hurting for another 1:45 split (giving Dressel the benefit of the doubt that he can swim 0.7 faster than his current lifetime best, registered in prelims of the 2021 US Olympic Trials).

Other Relay Contenders

The United States has traditionally been known for its extreme depth in a handful of events, particularly the 100 and 200 freestyles and the backstrokes. However, now that the Phelps-Lochte era is behind us, the USA has no true juggernauts in the 200 freestyle, nor does it have “depth swimmers” that would also contend for a medal were they to swim the event individually, such was the case from 2008 through 2016.

Top-16 American Men, 200 LCM Freestyle, 2021-present

If we strike Haas, Seliskar, and Pieroni from this list the top-6 becomes Smith, Kibler, Apple, Callan, Dressel, Foster, and Urlando, in that order.

Foster and Urlando have been on the bubble of breaking through in this event for several years, and with the sudden vacancies left by Haas, Seliskar, and Pieroni, 2022 could be their year to make their first LCM World Championship team (even if they don’t qualify top-6 in the 200 freestyle, each has a strong chance of making the team individually and could then at the very least be used on a prelims relay in Budapest).

Conclusions: Yes, By Necessity

Given the event load Dressel would have to undertake in order to swim the 4 x 200 freestyle relay, it seems most likely that he will remain on the bench–unless he swims the race all the way through finals at World Championship Trials in April and qualifies top-6, officially earning a spot on the team.

Dressel or no, the United States men have an uphill battle to get back on the podium in this event, and will rely heavily on up-and-comers such as Foster and Urlando to provide 1:45 splits (at minimum) in order to get back into the medals.