Psych sheet scoring provides a good prediction as to what may happen during the meet based on performances during the season, but how accurate have the psych sheet predictions been?
Price Fishback created a chart to compare the actual results from the 2014 NCAA Championships to the psych sheet scoring predictions from 2014. After removing diving points from the actual scores, we were able to see what teams improved upon their seeds and what teams fell back.
A lot of swimming fans felt that California under-performed last year at the NCAA Championships, but the numbers show that they actually outscored their seeds by 72 points. California is already the heavy favorite to win this year, and if they can out-swim their seeds again this year, nobody will be able to catch them.
Stanford is another team that moved up quite a bit last year, out-scoring their predicted scores by 83.5 points. They are within striking range of Georgia, but anything could happen over the next three days.
Scoring reakdown of the top teams from the 2014 NCAA Championships:
| Rank | Team | Final Score | Swim Points | Dive Points | Predicted Scores From Psych Sheet | Gain/Loss From Psych |
| 1 | UGA | 528 | 472 | 56 | 512 | 16 |
| 2 | Stanford | 402.5 | 399.5 | 3 | 319 | 83.5 |
| 3 | California | 386 | 372 | 14 | 314 | 72 |
| 4 | Texas A&M | 336 | 336 | 0 | 348 | -12 |
| 5 | USC | 252 | 215 | 37 | 258 | -6 |
| 11 | UVA | 123 | 123 | 0 | 196 | -73 |
Predicted Scoring Based on 2015 Psych Sheets:
| Rank | Team | Total Score | Day 1 Score | Day 2 Score | Day 3 Score |
| 1 | California | 505 | 163 | 206 | 136 |
| 2 | UGA | 369 | 116 | 110 | 143 |
| 3 | Stanford | 310 | 88 | 140 | 82 |
| 4 | UVA | 294 | 121 | 109 | 64 |
| 5 | Texas A&M | 220 | 59 | 89 | 72 |
What I’m curious of is the performance amongst Cal’s ‘depth’ swimmers (and I say that almost facetiously given that they’ve made NCAAs) in comparison to their most visible star swimmers who underperformed – Bootsma, Pelton, and yes, Missy Franklin. Not to mince words, Bootsma had a terrible meet, Pelton underperformed, and while anyone would kill to be able to place 1st, 2nd, and 3rd as a freshman, it was a bit of a shocker for those who expected Missy to sweep three events without any competition. On the other hand, Celina Li had a fairly good meet, and Cindy Tran came close to her underclassmen times; these are the only other two I remember off the top of my head… Read more »
Few expected Franklin to sweep all 3 events given her competition last year, though I had hoped she would go a little faster in the 100. Otherwise, I agree, Cal way underperformed last year. Luckily they seem to be back on track this year so far.