Cracking the Shanghai Relays: Men's 400 Medley

Our final relay breakdown, just in the nick of time for tonight/tomorrow’s first prelims section, is also the last event of the meet.

In contrast to the women’s race, the men’s relays aren’t as flexible. More “freestyle specialists means there usually is only one or two options for how to swim these relays, and the potential changes are typically much less complex.

The Americans will be in a unique position. For the first global championship in a decade, they will not have the best 100 backstroker in the field. Incidentally, happy 28th birthday to Aaron Peirsol today!

The Squads

USA

Option A Cumulative: 3:32.32
David Plummer (53.33)
Mark Gangloff/Mike Alexandrov (1:00.21)
Michael Phelps (50.65)
Nathan Adrian (48.13)

Option B Cumulative: 3:32.65
Nick Thoman (53.66)
Mark Gangloff/Mike Alexandrov (1:00.21)
Michael Phelps (50.65)
Nathan Adrian (48.13)

Option C Cumulative: 3:32.68
Ryan Lochte (53.69)
Mark Gangloff/Mike Alexandrov (1:00.21)
Michael Phelps (50.65)
Nathan Adrian (48.13)
Notes: As much criticism as he’s received over the last year, Michael Phelps is going to have to carry this relay if they expect to win. For so many years, they had Aaron Peirsol opening up with a lead. Their 100 breaststrokers are unlikely to medal based on last year’s times, though the good news is that amongst the top contenders in this relay, the US isn’t that far behind. Still, the Americans could be a full second behind a relay like the French when Phelps hits the water. The good news is that Phelps has the capability of making up a full second on the field in a 100 fly and put Adrian in a position to swim for a win. The coaches will have a tough decision to make on that backstroke leg. They’ll know whether or not to choose between Plummer and Thoman after the individual (many are predicting a breakout meet for Thoman), but Lochte will be at the end of a grueling and long meet, with the 400 IM final earlier in the session, and the coaches would have to insert him without seeing a 100 back out of him. He might not be the “safe” choice on this relay, but depending on how everyone’s swimming, he might be the “go-for-broke, go down swinging” choice.

France

Option A Cumulative: 3:33.10
Camille Lacourt (52.11)
Hugues Duboscq (1:00.15)
Fred Bousquet (52.50 est.)
Fabien Gilot (48.34)
Notes: Fred Bousquet in the 100 fly was a bit of a saving grace in this relay for the French. we estimated his flat start based off of his relay split from 2010 at Euro’s (51.84), as it’s never on his primary championship event schedule. I imagine that Gilot will be the anchor to this relay. He’s been the fastest 100 freestyler of a deep French squad, and more impotantly he’s been huge on relays (had the fastest split at Euro’s last year by half-a-second). Not a whole lot of tinkering to be done with this lineup.

Japan

Option A Cumulative: 3:33.85
Ryosuke Irie (53.09)
Kosuke Kitajima (59.04)
Takeshi Matsuda (52.77)
Takuro Fujii (48.95)
Notes: It’s almost hard to believe that a team that’s so good on their backstroke, breaststroke, and butterfly legs can’t pull out at least a 48.5 100 freestyler, but that’s exactly what this Japanese relay is dealing with. Even with a good, not great, freestyler, they’re probably the favorites. That forces Fujii to swim the freestyle leg (though he’s a second faster than Matsuda in the 100 fly) as Japan didn’t even include another sprint freestyler on their roster. It’s too bad they didn’t bring Masayuki Kashida, because that would have helped this decision a lot. Still a very good relay, but shy of that freestyler probably not a gold-medal relay.

Australia

Option A Cumulative: 3:33.71
Hayden Stoeckel (53.61)
Brenton Rickard (1:00.12)
Geoff Huegill (51.69)
James Magnussen (48.29)
Notes: This Australian relay is very-well balanced, but as they sit now don’t have any one swimmer who stands out as “the best” in their stroke. In fact, everyone aside from Magnussen will probably be outswum by at least a second by one of the other contenders. They have to go into this race with that mentality, and knowing that Hugill can make up serious ground on everyone but the Americans and the Russians. The key leg is going to be the backstroke, and they need Stoeckel (or Benjamin Treffers) to really outperform.

Russia

Option A Cumulative: 3:34.55
Stanislav Donets (53.96)
Roman Suldnov (1:00.66)
Evgeny Korotyshkin (51.70)
Evgeny Lagunov (48.23)
Notes: This relay should be one that comes together way faster than the sum of its parts. Donets is the World Champ in the 100 short course, but long course he makes his mark on the 200 (where he has more walls to take advantage of). He’ll need to figure out how to kill this 100 for the Russians to have a medal shot. The breaststroke leg is this group’s big weakness, though in the men’s medley the disparity between “good” and “mediocre” on breaststroke is much smaller. Korotyshkin is a great 100 butterflier, though he doesn’t always get enough credit for it.

The Netherlands

Option A Cumulative: 3:35.94
Nick Driebergen (54.34)
Lennert Steckelenburg (1:01.03)
Joeri Verlinden (51.85)
Sebastiaan Verschuren (48.72)
Notes: This relay somehow put together a 3:33 last year, which their flat-start times wouldn’t really hint at. The key here is that all of these swimmers are phenomenal relay swimmers. Verschuren, for example, crushed a 47.3 at Euro’s last year off of a relay start. When you take that sort of drop into account, these Dutch swimmers are well within striking range of a medal. Driebergen might need the swim of his lifetime, though he’s by far the best backstroker in the history of the Netherlands.

Analysis

Before really breaking down this relay, I thought that I would be picking the French men. After looking at things, I’m not so sure. The American breaststroke woes don’t look quite as bad in the context of this relay, where Japan can only swim one breaststroker, and the other two leading breaststroke nations (Norway and South Africa) don’t look to be balanced enough to be serious contenders. Australia, France, and the United States all have pretty similar breaststrokers, in fact. They also have very similar freestylers.

The difference between those thre will come on the backstroke leg. If the Americans can withstand the onslaught from Lacourt and come out after the first leg close, then this is their race to lose. Then it becomes a battle between Australia and Japan for bronze, though 3-6 in this race will be extremely tight.

Updated Picks

1. USA
2. France
3. Japan
4. Australia
5. The Netherlands
6. Russia