UPDATED PROJECTIONS: Top 39 Rows All Should Qualify for 2014 Women’s NCAA Championships

While these are entirely unofficial, thanks to some incredible work from Krista Kezbers, Debra Gemmell, and Mary DeMilia, we’ve gotten the top 50 from the 2014 NCAA Women’s Division I Championship “pre-selection” start lists into a spreadsheet for the first time.

What does that mean for you, our readers?

It’s time to have some REAL fun.

See the PDF of the psych sheets here.

The first thing we tackled was where the cut-line would fall for individual events, as this is the most immediately important.

For a refresher of how NCAA qualifying works, see Jared Anderson’s update here.

In brief, the selection committee goes line-by-line, selecting only unique swimmers, until they hit the 281 allotted for individual entries (322 total athletes minus 41 divers).

39, it’s the magic number.

When we calculated it out, all 39 rows get in to the

UPDATE: We found an error where Sam Harding from Minnesota was listed twice. This means that all 39 rows get in.

These lists could change before the official selections are released tomorrow (scratches, errors in entries that come with a steep fine, etc.) so don’t take this as golden yet, but that’s where things look right now.

That would be a small, but significant, increase from last season, where 38 swimmers were invited in every individual event by the time scratches were all done settling out. That means that there were fewer swimmers who had a ‘one-off’ event that ranked in the top 38 or 39 spots.

Who is on the bubble?

If our math holds true, here are the swimmers on the 39th line who are the ‘last ones in.’ We’ve struck through those who were selected higher in another event.

Based on these numbers, and if our math is correct, and if there are no more scratches, right now, all 39 of those rows will be in.

This, again, precludes that the psych sheets are correct in our spreadsheet – and we’ve now had four sets of eyes on it (and, an hour of reader inspection).

The biggest name who was on that bubble but snuck in was Cal breaststroker Marina Garcia, who has had an up-and-down season this year. They’ll need her to catch fire if the Golden Bears want to challenge the defending champions Georgia for the team title.

For the sake of letting everyone check us, these are the 281 swimmers we have as being invited. Please, if you see any errors, let us know ASAP and we will update our math, sorted by school:

Editors note: Jordan Smith was originally tabbed as the first swimmer out on the 39th row, but she actually tied for 38th. The article is updated to reflect this.