The odds in this article are provided for entertainment purposes only. If you have strong opinions about who’s going to win, the SwimSwam pick ’em contest is for you.
The Olympics are the biggest sporting event of 2016, so, of course, it’s possible to gamble on them. The swimming betting scene is small, but it does exist. As a swim fan the best part of shady Olympic gambling is that betting odds are essentially a dispassionate prediction of the results. A sportsbook’s only incentives are to make money, and the best way to do that is to estimate the probabilities of different outcomes as closely as possible.
The most robust odds available are on who wins gold in each event. There are betting markets on top 3 finishes, but there’s almost no active betting so their top 3 odds are useless. The betting markets on gold medalists are a bit better. There are up to several thousand dollars on the most contentious events, but most events have less than $500 at risk. That’s generally not enough for the market to settle on a trust worth prediction. Gold medal odds are fairly consistent across the sports books I checked, so I grabbed all the odds from one (specifically SkyBet) instead of doing a compilation stat .
So I’m clear: in betting markets you bet against other another person. Market forces decide the predicted odds. Sports books are essentially a casino. I’m using the odds offered by the sports books.
Basic Takeaways:
- The biggest toss up in the relays is women’s medley relay with Australia at 8/11 and the USA at 11/8, and the men’s 4X100 free with France at 5/4, Australia at 7/4, and the USA at 3/1.
- The other relay’s aren’t expected to be that competitive. The next worst winner’s odds are the US men in the 4X200 at 2/7.
- Katie Ledecky is the meet’s biggest favorite at 1/100 in the 400 and 800 free’s. Next best is Katinka Hosszu in the 200 IM and the Australian women’s 4X100, both at 1/33. Adam Peaty in the 100 breast at 1/6 is the strongest men’s favorite.
- The biggest individual tossups outside of the open water (where the best odds are 4/1) is the women’s 200 fly. The best odds there belong to Mireira Belmonte and Natsumi Hoshi at 5/2. Close behind are Franziska Hentke at 4/1 and Madeline Groves at 9/2. The biggest men’s tossup is the 200 breast with both Marco Koch and Jacob Pebley at 13/8.
- The top 8 implied gold medal counts (from the corrected probabilities below) are USA: 8.9, Australia: 7.0, Hungary: 2.6, Japan: 2.3, China: 2.1, Great Britain: 1.6, Sweden 1.3, France 1.2
More Complicated Takeaways:
The USA’s 3/1 odds to with the men’s 4X100 free relay implies a 25% chance that they win. (bet $1 at 3/1, 75% of the time you lose $1, 25% of the time you win $3. So it’s break even. That is .75*-1+.25*3=0). However, 25% is not the sports books real opinion of the USA’s chances to win that relay.
Sports books don’t offer their true odds to players, otherwise they would only break even in the long term (and the only way to make money is to fix the outcome). Instead they build in an adjustment called vigorish. Most of the time this adjustment is relatively small. For example, a standard bet on an over/under is offered at 10/11 for both the over and under. This means players are required to risk $11 to win $10. In the long run, a bet at 10/11 breaks even if the event in question happens 52.4% of the time. This means that 52.4% is the probability of the event implied by the offered odds, but the book actually thinks it will happen 50% of the time. We can correct for the vigorish by adding up all the implied probabilities of all possible bets and dividing by the sum. On a standard over/under bet the book offers 10/11 on the over and 10/11 on the under. That gives 52.4%+52.4%=104.8%. 52.4%/104.8%=50%, the book’s actual probability of either the over or the under.
To correct for the vigorish in the example above we needed to divided the implied probabilities by 1.04. In the odds being given by the books for the Olympics, the correction factor is 1.3. A number that high can imply a any of couple things. 1. The books don’t have a ton of faith in their projection, so they built in a huge margin of error to cover their back against someone with a better projection. 2. The books think that only idiots are betting on swimming at the Olympics, so they’re giving bettors terrible value to make more money.
My advice: Do not bet on these lines. There is such a large margin of error built in that it’s almost impossible to find a value bet. (also gambling is illegal in most US states, so, for many, there’s extra incentive not to throw money away)
The table below contains the betting odds, the probability implied by those odds and the probability corrected for the vigorish (aka the book’s actual guess of what will happen). One note on the corrected probabilities. I don’t know how the books actually applied the viogrish. I simply divided by the summed probability. This runs into problems with high probability events. For example, an overround of 30% on a true probability of 80% would give number over 100% (1.3*.8=1.04). Obviously that’s non nonsensical. There is some evidence that the books corrected for this with a smaller vigorish in events with high probability winners. In most events the implied probabilities sum to almost exactly 130%. In the women’s 400 free, where Katie Ledecky is a huge favorite, the implied probabilities sum to only 125%. Similarly, in the open water, the biggest toss up, the implied probabilities summed to 140%.
It’s also possible they used a sliding formula that applied adjustments unevenly. If that’s the case, it’s not corrected for below. View the corrected probabilities in any events with a big favorite with suspicion.
The full sportsbook odds on gold medal winners. Implied probability is the probability if we take the sports book’s odds at face value (what true probability makes those odds break even). Corrected probability is the implied probability corrected for the vigorish. (I excluded all swimmers with an implied probability below 1%):
| Event | Name | Country | Given Odds | Implied Probability | Corrected Probability |
| Men 50 Free | Florent Manaudou | FRA | 4/7 | 64% | 49% |
| Men 50 Free | Nathan Adrian | USA | 9/2 | 18% | 14% |
| Men 50 Free | Bruno Fratus | BRA | 6/1 | 14% | 11% |
| Men 50 Free | Cameron McEvoy | AUS | 13/2 | 13% | 10% |
| Men 50 Free | Anthony Ervin | USA | 16/1 | 6% | 5% |
| Men 50 Free | Andrey Govorov | UKR | 18/1 | 5% | 4% |
| Men 50 Free | Ben Proud | GBR | 20/1 | 5% | 4% |
| Men 100 Free | Cameron McEvoy | AUS | 1/3 | 75% | 57% |
| Men 100 Free | Nathan Adrian | USA | 9/2 | 18% | 14% |
| Men 100 Free | Ning Zeto | CHN | 7/1 | 13% | 10% |
| Men 100 Free | Santo Condorelli | CAN | 22/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Men 100 Free | Kyle Chalmers | AUS | 28/1 | 3% | 3% |
| Men 100 Free | Clement Mignon | FRA | 33/1 | 3% | 2% |
| Men 100 Free | Jeremy Stravius | FRA | 33/1 | 3% | 2% |
| Men 100 Free | Luca Dotto | ITA | 40/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Men 100 Free | Frederico Grabich | ARG | 50/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Men 200 Free | Sun Yang | CHN | 11/10 | 48% | 36% |
| Men 200 Free | James Guy | GBR | 2/1 | 33% | 26% |
| Men 200 Free | Kosuke Hagino | JPN | 11/1 | 8% | 6% |
| Men 200 Free | Yanick Agnel | FRA | 12/1 | 8% | 6% |
| Men 200 Free | Paul Biedermann | GER | 18/1 | 5% | 4% |
| Men 200 Free | Thomas Fraser-Holmes | AUS | 18/1 | 5% | 4% |
| Men 200 Free | Conor Dwyer | USA | 20/1 | 5% | 4% |
| Men 200 Free | Townley Haas | USA | 22/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Men 200 Free | Chad Le Clos | RSA | 25/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Men 200 Free | Park Tae Hwan | KOR | 25/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Men 200 Free | Jeremy Stravius | FRA | 50/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Men 200 Free | Sebastiaan Verschuren | NED | 80/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Men 200 Free | Velimir Stjepanovic | SRB | 80/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Men 400 Free | Sun Yang | CHN | 4/6 | 60% | 46% |
| Men 400 Free | Mack Horton | AUS | 15/8 | 35% | 27% |
| Men 400 Free | James Guy | GBR | 8/1 | 11% | 8% |
| Men 400 Free | Gabriele Detti | ITA | 10/1 | 9% | 7% |
| Men 400 Free | Park Tae Hwan | KOR | 16/1 | 6% | 4% |
| Men 400 Free | Connor Jaeger | USA | 28/1 | 3% | 3% |
| Men 400 Free | Ryan Cochrane | CAN | 66/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Men 1500 Free | Gregorio Paltrinieri | ITA | 8/15 | 65% | 50% |
| Men 1500 Free | Sun Yang | CHN | 7/4 | 36% | 28% |
| Men 1500 Free | Mack Horton | AUS | 13/2 | 13% | 10% |
| Men 1500 Free | Connor Jaeger | USA | 20/1 | 5% | 4% |
| Men 1500 Free | Gabriele Detti | ITA | 66/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Men 1500 Free | Ryan Cochrane | CAN | 66/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Men 1500 Free | Ous Mellouli | TUN | 66/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Men 100 Fly | Michael Phelps | USA | 5/4 | 44% | 34% |
| Men 100 Fly | Chad Le Clos | RSA | 5/4 | 44% | 34% |
| Men 100 Fly | Laszlo Cseh | HUN | 5/1 | 17% | 13% |
| Men 100 Fly | Joseph Schooling | SIN | 9/1 | 10% | 8% |
| Men 100 Fly | Zhuhao Li | CHN | 25/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Men 100 Fly | Tom Shields | USA | 33/1 | 3% | 2% |
| Men 100 Fly | Mehdy Metella | FRA | 50/1 | 2% | 1% |
| Men 100 Fly | Konrad Czerniak | POL | 80/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Men 200 Fly | Laszlo Cseh | HUN | 6/5 | 45% | 35% |
| Men 200 Fly | Michael Phelps | USA | 6/4 | 40% | 31% |
| Men 200 Fly | Chad Le Clos | RSA | 2/1 | 33% | 25% |
| Men 200 Fly | Tamas Kenderesi | HUN | 33/1 | 3% | 2% |
| Men 200 Fly | Daiya Seto | JPN | 33/1 | 3% | 2% |
| Men 200 Fly | Masato Sakai | JPN | 80/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Men 200 Fly | Jan Switkowski | POL | 80/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Men 200 Fly | Viktor Bromer | DEN | 80/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Men 100 Back | Mitchel Larkin | AUS | 6/4 | 40% | 31% |
| Men 100 Back | Ryan Murphy | USA | 15/8 | 35% | 27% |
| Men 100 Back | David Plummer | USA | 12/5 | 29% | 23% |
| Men 100 Back | Camille Lacourt | FRA | 11/1 | 8% | 6% |
| Men 100 Back | Xu Jiayu | CHN | 25/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Men 100 Back | Evgeny Rylov | RUS | 33/1 | 3% | 2% |
| Men 100 Back | Ryosuke Irie | JPN | 33/1 | 3% | 2% |
| Men 100 Back | Chris Walker Hebborn | GBR | 80/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Men 100 Back | Grigory Tarasevich | RUS | 80/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Men 200 Back | Mitchell Larkin | AUS | 2/9 | 82% | 63% |
| Men 200 Back | Ryan Murphy | USA | 9/2 | 18% | 14% |
| Men 200 Back | Evgeny Rylov | RUS | 12/1 | 8% | 6% |
| Men 200 Back | Ryosuke Irie | JPN | 12/1 | 8% | 6% |
| Men 200 Back | Radoslaw Kawecki | POL | 18/1 | 5% | 4% |
| Men 200 Back | Jiayu Xu | CHN | 20/1 | 5% | 4% |
| Men 200 Back | Jacob Pebley | USA | 40/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Men 100 Breast | Adam Peaty | GBR | 1/6 | 86% | 66% |
| Men 100 Breast | Cameron Van Der Burgh | RSA | 7/2 | 22% | 17% |
| Men 100 Breast | Kevin Cordes | USA | 18/1 | 5% | 4% |
| Men 100 Breast | Ross Murdoch | GBR | 20/1 | 5% | 4% |
| Men 100 Breast | Joao Gomes | BRA | 40/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Men 100 Breast | Cody Miller | USA | 40/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Men 100 Breast | Giedrius Titenis | LTU | 40/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Men 100 Breast | Dimitriy Balandin | KAZ | 50/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Men 100 Breast | Felipe Franca | BRA | 80/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Men 200 Breast | Josh Prenot | USA | 13/8 | 38% | 29% |
| Men 200 Breast | Marco Koch | GER | 13/8 | 38% | 29% |
| Men 200 Breast | Daniel Gyurta | HUN | 6/1 | 14% | 11% |
| Men 200 Breast | Kevin Cordes | USA | 8/1 | 11% | 8% |
| Men 200 Breast | Yasuhiro Koseki | JPN | 10/1 | 9% | 7% |
| Men 200 Breast | Anton Chupkov | RUS | 22/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Men 200 Breast | Dimitriy Balandin | KAZ | 25/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Men 200 Breast | Andrew Willis | GBR | 28/1 | 3% | 3% |
| Men 200 Breast | Ippei Watanabe | JPN | 33/1 | 3% | 2% |
| Men 200 Breast | Christian vom Lehn | GER | 80/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Men 200 IM | Michael Phelps | USA | 10/11 | 52% | 41% |
| Men 200 IM | Kosuke Hagino | JPN | 11/10 | 48% | 37% |
| Men 200 IM | Ryan Lochte | USA | 7/2 | 22% | 17% |
| Men 200 IM | Thiago Pereria | BRA | 25/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Men 200 IM | Shun Wang | CHN | 80/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Men 400 IM | Kosuke Hagino | JPN | 4/11 | 73% | 56% |
| Men 400 IM | Daiya Seto | JPN | 9/4 | 31% | 24% |
| Men 400 IM | Chase Kalisz | USA | 7/1 | 13% | 10% |
| Men 400 IM | David Verraszto | HUN | 18/1 | 5% | 4% |
| Men 400 IM | Wang Shun | CHN | 40/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Men 400 IM | Jay Litherland | USA | 40/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Men 400 IM | Thomas Farser-Holmes | AUS | 66/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Men 4X100 Free | France | 5/4 | 44% | 34% | |
| Men 4X100 Free | Australia | 7/4 | 36% | 28% | |
| Men 4X100 Free | USA | 3/1 | 25% | 19% | |
| Men 4X100 Free | Russia | 10/1 | 9% | 7% | |
| Men 4X100 Free | Italy | 18/1 | 5% | 4% | |
| Men 4X100 Free | Brazil | 20/1 | 5% | 4% | |
| Men 4X100 Free | Germany | 80/1 | 1% | 1% | |
| Men 4X100 Free | China | 80/1 | 1% | 1% | |
| Men 4X200 Free | USA | 2/7 | 78% | 60% | |
| Men 4X200 Free | Australia | 4/1 | 20% | 15% | |
| Men 4X200 Free | Great Britain | 11/2 | 15% | 12% | |
| Men 4X200 Free | Japan | 14/1 | 7% | 5% | |
| Men 4X200 Free | Russia | 33/1 | 3% | 2% | |
| Men 4X200 Free | France | 40/1 | 2% | 2% | |
| Men 4X200 Free | Germany | 66/1 | 1% | 1% | |
| Men 4X100 Medley | USA | 1/6 | 86% | 66% | |
| Men 4X100 Medley | Australia | 4/1 | 20% | 15% | |
| Men 4X100 Medley | Great Britain | 14/1 | 7% | 5% | |
| Men 4X100 Medley | South Africa | 22/1 | 4% | 3% | |
| Men 4X100 Medley | China | 25/1 | 4% | 3% | |
| Men 4X100 Medley | France | 40/1 | 2% | 2% | |
| Men 4X100 Medley | Brazil | 40/1 | 2% | 2% | |
| Men 4X100 Medley | Russia | 66/1 | 1% | 1% | |
| Men 4X100 Medley | Japan | 66/1 | 1% | 1% | |
| Men 10k | Jordan Willmovsky | USA | 4/1 | 20% | 14% |
| Men 10k | Ferry Weertman | NED | 6/1 | 14% | 10% |
| Men 10k | Lijun Zu | CHN | 6/1 | 14% | 10% |
| Men 10k | Oussama Mellouli | TUN | 13/2 | 13% | 10% |
| Men 10k | Spyridon Gianniotis | GRE | 8/1 | 11% | 8% |
| Men 10k | Jack Burnell | GBR | 11/1 | 8% | 6% |
| Men 10k | Simone Ruffini | ITA | 12/1 | 8% | 5% |
| Men 10k | Sean Ryan | USA | 14/1 | 7% | 5% |
| Men 10k | Christian Reichert | GER | 16/1 | 6% | 4% |
| Men 10k | Marc-Antoine Olivier | FRA | 16/1 | 6% | 4% |
| Men 10k | Richard Weinberger | CAN | 18/1 | 5% | 4% |
| Men 10k | Richard Nagy | SVK | 22/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Men 10k | Jarrod Poort | AUS | 25/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Men 10k | Chad Ho | RSA | 25/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Men 10k | Federico Vanelli | ITA | 25/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Men 10k | Allan Do Carmo | BRA | 25/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Men 10k | Evgenii Drattcev | RUS | 28/1 | 3% | 2% |
| Men 10k | Ivan Enderica Ochoa | ECU | 66/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Women 50 Free | Cate Campbell | AUS | 2/5 | 71% | 55% |
| Women 50 Free | Ranomi Kromowidjojo | NED | 7/2 | 22% | 17% |
| Women 50 Free | Sarah Sjostrom | SWE | 15/2 | 12% | 9% |
| Women 50 Free | Bronte Campbell | AUS | 9/1 | 10% | 8% |
| Women 50 Free | Francesca Halsall | GBR | 12/1 | 8% | 6% |
| Women 50 Free | Abbey Weitzeil | USA | 66/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Women 100 Free | Cate Campbell | AUS | 2/9 | 82% | 63% |
| Women 100 Free | Bronte Campbell | AUS | 5/1 | 17% | 13% |
| Women 100 Free | Sarah Sjostrom | SWE | 5/1 | 17% | 13% |
| Women 100 Free | Penny Oleksiak | CAN | 33/1 | 3% | 2% |
| Women 100 Free | Ranomi Kromowidjojo | NED | 33/1 | 3% | 2% |
| Women 100 Free | Femke Heemskerk | NED | 33/1 | 3% | 2% |
| Women 100 Free | Federica Pellegrini | ITA | 66/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Women 200 Free | Katie Ledecky | USA | 4/6 | 60% | 46% |
| Women 200 Free | Sarah Sjostrom | SWE | 9/4 | 31% | 24% |
| Women 200 Free | Federica Pellegrini | ITA | 5/1 | 17% | 13% |
| Women 200 Free | Emma McKeon | AUS | 9/1 | 10% | 8% |
| Women 200 Free | Femke Heemskerk | NED | 22/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Women 200 Free | Missy Franklin | USA | 33/1 | 3% | 2% |
| Women 200 Free | Shen Duo | CHN | 80/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Women 400 Free | Katie Ledecky | USA | 1/100 | 99% | 79% |
| Women 400 Free | Leah Smith | USA | 16/1 | 6% | 5% |
| Women 400 Free | Jessica Ashwood | AUS | 22/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Women 400 Free | Boglarka Kapas | HUN | 33/1 | 3% | 2% |
| Women 400 Free | Sharon van Rouwendaal | NED | 40/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Women 400 Free | Jazmin Carlin | GBR | 40/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Women 400 Free | Lauren Boyle | NZL | 40/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Women 400 Free | Mireia Belmonte | ESP | 50/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Women 400 Free | Brittany MacLean | CAN | 80/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Women 400 Free | Melanie Costa | ESP | 80/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Women 800 Free | Katie Ledecky | USA | 1/100 | 99% | 77% |
| Women 800 Free | Jessica Ashwood | AUS | 20/1 | 5% | 4% |
| Women 800 Free | Mireia Belmonte | ESP | 25/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Women 800 Free | Boglarka Kapas | HUN | 25/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Women 800 Free | Jazmin Carlin | GBR | 25/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Women 800 Free | Lauren Boyle | NZL | 25/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Women 800 Free | Leah Smith | USA | 33/1 | 3% | 2% |
| Women 800 Free | Lotte Friis | DEN | 50/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Women 800 Free | Brittany MacLean | CAN | 50/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Women 800 Free | Sharon van Rouwendaal | NED | 66/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Women 100 Fly | Sarah Sjostrom | SWE | 1/25 | 96% | 74% |
| Women 100 Fly | Kelsi Worrell | USA | 16/1 | 6% | 5% |
| Women 100 Fly | Dana Vollmer | USA | 18/1 | 5% | 4% |
| Women 100 Fly | Penny Oleksiak | CAN | 22/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Women 100 Fly | Chen Xinyi | CHN | 22/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Women 100 Fly | Rikako Ikee | JPN | 28/1 | 3% | 3% |
| Women 100 Fly | Emma McKeon | AUS | 28/1 | 3% | 3% |
| Women 100 Fly | Jeanette Ottesen | DEN | 33/1 | 3% | 2% |
| Women 100 Fly | Lu Ying | CHN | 66/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Women 100 Fly | Noemie Thomas | CAN | 80/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Women 200 Fly | Mireia Belmonte | ESP | 5/2 | 29% | 22% |
| Women 200 Fly | Natsumi Hoshi | JPN | 5/2 | 29% | 22% |
| Women 200 Fly | Franziska Hentke | GER | 4/1 | 20% | 15% |
| Women 200 Fly | Madeline Groves | AUS | 9/2 | 18% | 14% |
| Women 200 Fly | Zhang Yufei | CHN | 10/1 | 9% | 7% |
| Women 200 Fly | Zho Yilin | CHN | 18/1 | 5% | 4% |
| Women 200 Fly | Liliana Szilagyi | HUN | 18/1 | 5% | 4% |
| Women 200 Fly | Suzuka Hasegawa | JPN | 20/1 | 5% | 4% |
| Women 200 Fly | Cammile Adams | USA | 22/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Women 200 Fly | Brianna Throssell | AUS | 40/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Women 100 Back | Emily Seebohm | AUS | 8/15 | 65% | 50% |
| Women 100 Back | Mie Nielsen | DEN | 11/4 | 27% | 20% |
| Women 100 Back | Katinka Hosszu | HUN | 5/1 | 17% | 13% |
| Women 100 Back | Madi Wilson | AUS | 12/1 | 8% | 6% |
| Women 100 Back | Kylie Masse | CAN | 20/1 | 5% | 4% |
| Women 100 Back | Olivia Smoliga | USA | 40/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Women 100 Back | Fu Yuanhui | CHN | 40/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Women 100 Back | Kathleen Baker | USA | 80/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Women 200 Back | Emily Seebohm | AUS | 11/10 | 48% | 36% |
| Women 200 Back | Belinda Hocking | AUS | 15/8 | 35% | 27% |
| Women 200 Back | Katinka Hosszu | HUN | 9/2 | 18% | 14% |
| Women 200 Back | Missy Franklin | USA | 7/1 | 13% | 10% |
| Women 200 Back | Maya DiRado | USA | 10/1 | 9% | 7% |
| Women 200 Back | Daryna Zevina | UKR | 22/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Women 200 Back | Hilary Caldwell | CAN | 80/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Women 100 Breast | Lilly King | USA | 4/7 | 64% | 49% |
| Women 100 Breast | Ruta Meilutyte | LTU | 13/8 | 38% | 29% |
| Women 100 Breast | Katie Meili | USA | 11/1 | 8% | 6% |
| Women 100 Breast | Alia Atkinson | JAM | 14/1 | 7% | 5% |
| Women 100 Breast | Shi Jinglin | CHN | 33/1 | 3% | 2% |
| Women 100 Breast | Georgia Bohl | AUS | 50/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Women 100 Breast | Viktoria Gunes | TUR | 66/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Women 100 Breast | Jennie Johansson | SWE | 66/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Women 100 Breast | Kanako Watanabe | JPN | 80/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Women 200 Breast | Rie Kaneto | JPN | 4/5 | 56% | 43% |
| Women 200 Breast | Viktoriya Gunes | TUR | 15/8 | 35% | 27% |
| Women 200 Breast | Rikke Moeller Pedersen | DEN | 7/1 | 13% | 10% |
| Women 200 Breast | Kanako Watanabe | JPN | 15/2 | 12% | 9% |
| Women 200 Breast | Taylor McKeown | AUS | 12/1 | 8% | 6% |
| Women 200 Breast | Shi Jinglin | CHN | 40/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Women 200 Breast | Chloe Tutton | GBR | 50/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Women 200 IM | Katinka Hosszu | HUN | 1/33 | 97% | 78% |
| Women 200 IM | Siobhan-Marie O’Connor | GBR | 10/1 | 9% | 7% |
| Women 200 IM | Maya DiRado | USA | 16/1 | 6% | 5% |
| Women 200 IM | Ye Shiwen | CHN | 16/1 | 6% | 5% |
| Women 200 IM | Alicia Coutts | AUS | 40/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Women 200 IM | Melanie Margalis | USA | 80/1 | 1% | 1% |
| Women 400 IM | Katinka Hosszu | HUN | 1/14 | 93% | 71% |
| Women 400 IM | Maya Dirado | USA | 10/1 | 9% | 7% |
| Women 400 IM | Mireia Belmonte | ESP | 12/1 | 8% | 6% |
| Women 400 IM | Elizabeth Beisel | USA | 14/1 | 7% | 5% |
| Women 400 IM | Ye Shiwen | CHN | 16/1 | 6% | 4% |
| Women 400 IM | Hannah Miley | GBR | 33/1 | 3% | 2% |
| Women 400 IM | Emily Overholt | CAN | 33/1 | 3% | 2% |
| Women 4X100 Free | Australia | 1/33 | 97% | 77% | |
| Women 4X100 Free | Netherlands | 10/1 | 9% | 7% | |
| Women 4X100 Free | USA | 11/1 | 8% | 7% | |
| Women 4X100 Free | Canada | 28/1 | 3% | 3% | |
| Women 4X100 Free | Sweden | 50/1 | 2% | 2% | |
| Women 4X100 Free | China | 66/1 | 1% | 1% | |
| Women 4X100 Free | Denmark | 66/1 | 1% | 1% | |
| Women 4X200 Free | USA | 1/25 | 96% | 74% | |
| Women 4X200 Free | China | 9/1 | 10% | 8% | |
| Women 4X200 Free | Australia | 12/1 | 8% | 6% | |
| Women 4X200 Free | Canada | 20/1 | 5% | 4% | |
| Women 4X200 Free | Hungary | 40/1 | 2% | 2% | |
| Women 4X200 Free | Netherlands | 50/1 | 2% | 2% | |
| Women 4X200 Free | Sweden | 50/1 | 2% | 2% | |
| Women 4X200 Free | Italy | 66/1 | 1% | 1% | |
| Women 4X200 Free | Russia | 80/1 | 1% | 1% | |
| Women 4X100 Medley | Australia | 8/11 | 58% | 46% | |
| Women 4X100 Medley | USA | 11/8 | 42% | 34% | |
| Women 4X100 Medley | China | 8/1 | 11% | 9% | |
| Women 4X100 Medley | Sweden | 20/1 | 5% | 4% | |
| Women 4X100 Medley | Denmark | 25/1 | 4% | 3% | |
| Women 4X100 Medley | Canada | 40/1 | 2% | 2% | |
| Women 10k | Sharon van Rouwendall | NED | 4/1 | 20% | 14% |
| Women 10k | Aurelie Muller | FRA | 4/1 | 20% | 14% |
| Women 10k | Xin Xin | CHN | 6/1 | 14% | 10% |
| Women 10k | Ana Marcela Cunha | BRA | 7/1 | 13% | 9% |
| Women 10k | Rachele Bruni | ITA | 15/2 | 12% | 8% |
| Women 10k | Poliana Okimoto Cintra | BRA | 15/2 | 12% | 8% |
| Women 10k | Keri-Anne Payne | GBR | 9/1 | 10% | 7% |
| Women 10k | Eva Risztov | HUN | 10/1 | 9% | 6% |
| Women 10k | Kalliopi Araouzou | GRE | 14/1 | 7% | 5% |
| Women 10k | Haley Anderson | USA | 14/1 | 7% | 5% |
| Women 10k | Isabelle Franziska Harle | GER | 22/1 | 4% | 3% |
| Women 10k | Samantha Arevalo | ECU | 40/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Women 10k | Anna Olasz | HUN | 40/1 | 2% | 2% |
| Women 10k | Chelsea Gubecka | AUS | 50/1 | 2% | 1% |
I would suggest a different approach to adjusting for vigorish. Assume all payoffs are reduced by or to the same percentage. Thus for the women’s 400 if all payoffs are only 20% of what they should be Ledecky would actually be 1/20 instead of 1/100 close to 95%. Doing the same correction with everyone we would get a total only slightly over 100%. For a true 95% we would have 1/19 which would be 19% of what the payoff should be–I suspect this would get us to a total very close to 100%.
The fixed odds bookies get their odds these days from the betting exchanges (Betfair is the largest, probably not available in the US) and until enough money has been exchanged (matched), then the odds are pretty meaningless. Expect the exchanges to increased their volumes matched after the prelims as punters see the form of the swimmers. A company like Skybet will have a huge markup (if you add up all of the odds of backing any “realistic” winner, the figure will be well below 90%. The difference between that figure and 100% is their profit margin), so you’ll get fairer odds from the exchanges when the money starts to flow on them.
This is backwards. Adding the odds of realistic winners will be over 100% not under 90% (in this case it’s about 130%). Bets on long shots pay more. Favorites pay less, so they set the odds to make the favorites bigger favorites. Also, betfair is the betting market I was referring to at the top of the article.
Yes of course you’re right. I was thinking more of a 3 outcome event where the odds can’t be more than 100%, otherwise you’d be buying money.
In women 200 fly, Madeline Groves at 18% while Cammile Adams is only at 4%.
Commonwombat is going to love this 🙂
I’ll put a $100 on Townley Hass in the 200 with 22-1.
Sun Yang at 11/10 is ridiculous. 3/1 he’s a no show for the final. Could it happen twice?
We need betting lines for 8 to 12 year olds to pass the time during those long 4 day winter swim meets.
Were I a betting man (with, say, $100), here are some lines I’d think about. I don’t think of all of these picks as favorites in my mind (except Phelps in the 200 IM and the USA men 400 free relay who I think are going to show up to perform).
$10 Murphy 200 back at 9/2
$5 VdB 100 breast at 7/2
$10 Gyurta 200 breast at 6/1 and $10 Cordes 200 breast at 8/1
$11 Phelps 200 IM at 10/11
$19 USA men 400 free relay at 3/1
$10 Pellegrini 200 free at 5/1
$5 Worrell 100 fly at 16/1 and $10 Vollmer 100 fly at 18/1
I’ll check back after… Read more »
I do not think I will take the VdB bet in the 100 breast. Peaty is a lock for me. I like the Murphy 200 back, USA Men 4×100 free relay, and the Cordes 200 breast bets.
And, DiRado in the 400 IM at 10 to 1.
Checking back in – I did pretty nice. $10 on Murphy at 9/2 wins me $45, $11 on Phelps at 10/11 wins me $10, and $19 on USA men 400 free relay wins me $57. So that’s a return of $40 from my initial bet and $112 on the winnings for a total of $152. Not bad.
Hit me up for some real action. Taking everything from fencing to ping pong