Four Years Later: The Swimming Landscape from London to Rio, Part One

The greatest virtue of the four-year Olympic cycle is how it works the sport of swimming down to a concentrated size. Every Olympics is a snapshot of what each little mini-era of swimming was all about. With Rio fast approaching, we wanted to take a look back at 2012. What did the future look like after London as it compares to what actually happened.

In the first part of “Four Years Later”, we’re going to take a look at which men were flying high coming into 2012, and who sits on top heading into 2016. What swimmers looked like they were destined for victory in London but came up short. Who “came out of nowhere” and stepped up to the big London moment? Who met expectations.

For reference, I’m going to compare the 2011 World Championship top three to the 2012 Olympic results. I’ll also talk about the 2015 Kazan results and what they suggest or don’t suggest will happen in Rio:

First Shanghai:

Event	Gold		Silver		Bronze
50 m freestyle[4] details	César Cielo Brazil (BRA)	21.52	Luca Dotto Italy (ITA)	21.90	Alain Bernard France (FRA)	21.92
100 m freestyle[5] details	James Magnussen Australia (AUS)	47.63	Brent Hayden Canada (CAN)	47.95	William Meynard France (FRA)	48.00
200 m freestyle[6] details	Ryan Lochte United States (USA)	1:44.44	Michael Phelps United States (USA)	1:44.79	Paul Biedermann Germany (GER)	1:44.88
400 m freestyle[7] details	Park Tae-Hwan South Korea (KOR)	3:42.04	Sun Yang China (CHN)	3:43.24	Paul Biedermann Germany (GER)	3:44.14
800 m freestyle[8] details	Sun Yang China (CHN)	7:38.57	Ryan Cochrane Canada (CAN)	7:41.86	Gergő Kis Hungary (HUN)	7:44.94 NR
1500 m freestyle[9] details	Sun Yang China (CHN)	14:34.14 WR	Ryan Cochrane Canada (CAN)	14:44.46	Gergő Kis Hungary (HUN)	14:45.66 NR
50 m backstroke[10] details	Liam Tancock Great Britain (GBR)	24.50	Camille Lacourt France (FRA)	24.57	Gerhard Zandberg South Africa (RSA)	24.66
100 m backstroke[11] details	Jérémy Stravius France (FRA)  Camille Lacourt France (FRA)	52.76	Not awarded		Ryosuke Irie Japan (JPN)	52.98
200 m backstroke[12] details	Ryan Lochte United States (USA)	1:52.96	Ryosuke Irie Japan (JPN)	1:54.11	Tyler Clary United States (USA)	1:54.69
50 m breaststroke[13] details	Felipe França Silva Brazil (BRA)	27.01	Fabio Scozzoli Italy (ITA)	27.17 NR	Cameron van der Burgh South Africa (RSA)	27.19
100 m breaststroke[14] details	Alexander Dale Oen Norway (NOR)	58.71 NR	Fabio Scozzoli Italy (ITA)	59.42 NR	Cameron van der Burgh South Africa (RSA)	59.49
200 m breaststroke[15] details	Dániel Gyurta Hungary (HUN)	2:08.41	Kosuke Kitajima Japan (JPN)	2:08.63	Christian vom Lehn Germany (GER)	2:09.06
50 m butterfly[16] details	César Cielo Brazil (BRA)	23.10	Matthew Targett Australia (AUS)	23.28	Geoff Huegill Australia (AUS)	23.35
100 m butterfly[17] details	Michael Phelps United States (USA)	50.71	Konrad Czerniak Poland (POL)	51.15 NR	Tyler McGill United States (USA)	51.26
200 m butterfly[18] details	Michael Phelps United States (USA)	1:53.34	Takeshi Matsuda Japan (JPN)	1:54.01	Wu Peng China (CHN)	1:54.67
200 m individual medley[19] details	Ryan Lochte United States (USA)	1:54.00 WR	Michael Phelps United States (USA)	1:54.16	László Cseh Hungary (HUN)	1:57.69
400 m individual medley[20] details	Ryan Lochte United States (USA)	4:07.13	Tyler Clary United States (USA)	4:11.17	Yuya Horihata Japan (JPN)	4:11.98
4×100 m freestyle relay[21] details	Australia James Magnussen(47.49) Matthew Targett(47.87) Matthew Abood(47.92) Eamon Sullivan(47.72)	3:11.00	France Alain Bernard(48.75) Jérémy Stravius(47.78) William Meynard(47.39) Fabien Gilot (47.22)	3:11.14	United States Michael Phelps(48.08) Garrett Weber-Gale(48.33) Jason Lezak (48.15) Nathan Adrian(47.40)	3:11.96
4×200 m freestyle relay[22] details	United States Michael Phelps(1:45.53) Peter Vanderkaay(1:46.07) Ricky Berens(1:46.51) Ryan Lochte (1:44.56)	7:02.67	France Yannick Agnel(1:45.25) Grégory Mallet(1:46.81) Jérémy Stravius(1:45.40) Fabien Gilot(1:47.35)	7:04.81 NR	China Wang Shun (1:47.09) Zhang Lin (1:46.14) Li Yunqi (1:47.30) Sun Yang (1:45.14)	7:05.67 NR
4×100 m medley relay[23] details	United States Nick Thoman (53.61) Mark Gangloff(1:00.24) Michael Phelps(50.57) Nathan Adrian (47.64)	3:32.06	Australia Hayden Stoeckel(54.22) Brenton Rickard(59.32) Geoff Huegill (51.72) James Magnussen(47.00)	3:32.26	Germany Helge Meeuw (53.53) Hendrik Feldwehr(59.72) Benjamin Starke(51.83) Paul Biedermann(47.52)

Then London:

Event	Gold		Silver		Bronze
50 m freestyle details	Florent Manaudou France (FRA)	21.34	Cullen Jones United States (USA)	21.54	César Cielo Brazil (BRA)	21.59
100 m freestyle details	Nathan Adrian United States (USA)	47.52	James Magnussen Australia (AUS)	47.53	Brent Hayden Canada (CAN)	47.80
200 m freestyle details	Yannick Agnel France (FRA)	1:43.14 NR	Sun Yang China (CHN)  Park Tae-Hwan South Korea (KOR)	1:44.93NR (for CHN)	Not awarded as there was a tie for silver.
400 m freestyle details	Sun Yang China (CHN)	3:40.14 OR,AS	Park Tae-Hwan South Korea (KOR)	3:42.06	Peter Vanderkaay United States (USA)	3:44.69
1500 m freestyle details	Sun Yang China (CHN)	14:31.02WR	Ryan Cochrane Canada (CAN)	14:39.63AM	Oussama Mellouli Tunisia (TUN)	14:40.31
100 m backstroke details	Matt Grevers United States (USA)	52.16 OR	Nick Thoman United States (USA)	52.92	Ryosuke Irie Japan (JPN)	52.97
200 m backstroke details	Tyler Clary United States (USA)	1:53.41 OR	Ryosuke Irie Japan (JPN)	1:53.78	Ryan Lochte United States (USA)	1:53.94
100 m breaststroke details	Cameron van der Burgh South Africa (RSA)	58.46 WR	Christian Sprenger Australia (AUS)	58.93	Brendan Hansen United States (USA)	59.49
200 m breaststroke details	Dániel Gyurta Hungary (HUN)	2:07.28 WR	Michael Jamieson Great Britain (GBR)	2:07.43NR	Ryo Tateishi Japan (JPN)	2:08.29
100 m butterfly details	Michael Phelps United States (USA)	51.21	Chad le Clos South Africa (RSA)  Yevgeny Korotyshkin Russia (RUS)	51.44	Not awarded as there was a tie for silver.
200 m butterfly details	Chad le Clos South Africa (RSA)	1:52.96 AF	Michael Phelps United States (USA)	1:53.01	Takeshi Matsuda Japan (JPN)	1:53.21
200 m individual medley details	Michael Phelps United States (USA)	1:54.27	Ryan Lochte United States (USA)	1:54.90	László Cseh Hungary (HUN)	1:56.22
400 m individual medley details	Ryan Lochte United States (USA)	4:05.18	Thiago Pereira Brazil (BRA)	4:08.86 =SA	Kosuke Hagino Japan (JPN)	4:08.94AS
4×100 m freestyle relay details	France (FRA) Amaury Leveaux(48.13) Fabien Gilot (47.67) Clément Lefert (47.39) Yannick Agnel (46.74) Alain Bernard[a] Jérémy Stravius[a]	3:09.93	United States (USA) Nathan Adrian(47.89) Michael Phelps(47.15) Cullen Jones (47.60) Ryan Lochte (47.74) Jimmy Feigen[a] Matt Grevers[a] Ricky Berens[a] Jason Lezak[a]	3:10.38	Russia (RUS) Andrey Grechin(48.57) Nikita Lobintsev(47.39) Vladimir Morozov(47.85) Danila Izotov (47.60) Yevgeny Lagunov[a] Sergey Fesikov[a]	3:11.41
4×200 m freestyle relay details	United States (USA) Ryan Lochte (1:45.15) Conor Dwyer(1:45.23) Ricky Berens(1:45.27) Michael Phelps(1:44.05) Charlie Houchin[a] Matt McLean[a] Davis Tarwater[a]	6:59.70	France (FRA) Amaury Leveaux(1:46.70) Grégory Mallet(1:46.83) Clément Lefert(1:46.00) Yannick Agnel(1:43.24) Jérémy Stravius[a]	7:02.77NR	China (CHN) Hao Yun (1:47.12) Li Yunqi (1:46.46) Jiang Haiqi (1:47.17) Sun Yang (1:45.55) Lü Zhiwu[a] Dai Jun[a]	7:06.30
4×100 m medley relay details	United States (USA) Matt Grevers (52.58) Brendan Hansen(59.19) Michael Phelps(50.73) Nathan Adrian (46.85) Nick Thoman[a] Eric Shanteau[a] Tyler McGill[a] Cullen Jones[a]	3:29.35	Japan (JPN) Ryosuke Irie (52.92) Kosuke Kitajima(58.64) Takeshi Matsuda(51.20) Takuro Fujii (48.50)	3:31.26	Australia (AUS) Hayden Stoeckel(53.71) Christian Sprenger(59.05) Matt Targett (51.60) James Magnussen(47.22) Brenton Rickard[a] Tommaso D’Orsogna[a]	3:31.58
10 km open water details	Oussama Mellouli Tunisia (TUN)	1:49:55.1	Thomas Lurz Germany (GER)	1:49:58.5	Richard Weinberger Canada (CAN)	1:50:00.3

Finally, Kazan:

Event	Gold		Silver		Bronze
50 m freestyle[3] details	Florent Manaudou France (FRA)	21.19	Nathan Adrian United States (USA)	21.52	Bruno Fratus Brazil (BRA)	21.56
100 m freestyle[4] details	Ning Zetao China (CHN)	47.84	Cameron McEvoy Australia (AUS)	47.95	Federico Grabich Argentina (ARG)	48.12
200 m freestyle[5] details	James Guy Great Britain (GBR)	1:45.14 NR	Sun Yang China (CHN)	1:45.20	Paul Biedermann Germany (GER)	1:45.38
400 m freestyle[6] details	Sun Yang China (CHN)	3:42.58	James Guy Great Britain (GBR)	3:43.75 NR	Ryan Cochrane Canada (CAN)	3:44.59
800 m freestyle[7] details	Sun Yang China (CHN)	7:39.96	Gregorio Paltrinieri Italy (ITA)	7:40.81 ER	Mack Horton Australia (AUS)	7:44.02
1500 m freestyle[8] details	Gregorio Paltrinieri Italy (ITA)	14:39.67 ER	Connor Jaeger United States (USA)	14:41.20 NR	Ryan Cochrane Canada (CAN)	14:51.08
50 m backstroke[9] details	Camille Lacourt France (FRA)	24.23	Matt Grevers United States (USA)	24.61	Ben Treffers Australia (AUS)	24.69
100 m backstroke[10] details	Mitch Larkin Australia (AUS)	52.40	Camille Lacourt France (FRA)	52.48	Matt Grevers United States (USA)	52.66
200 m backstroke[11] details	Mitch Larkin Australia (AUS)	1:53.58 OC	Radosław Kawęcki Poland (POL)	1:54.55	Evgeny Rylov Russia (RUS)	1:54:60
50 m breaststroke[12] details	Adam Peaty Great Britain (GBR)	26.51	Cameron van der Burgh South Africa (RSA)	26.66	Kevin Cordes United States (USA)	26.86
100 m breaststroke[13] details	Adam Peaty Great Britain (GBR)	58.52	Cameron van der Burgh South Africa (RSA)	58.59	Ross Murdoch Great Britain (GBR)	59.09
200 m breaststroke[14] details	Marco Koch Germany (GER)	2:07.76	Kevin Cordes United States (USA)	2:08.05	Dániel Gyurta Hungary (HUN)	2:08.10
50 m butterfly[15] details	Florent Manaudou France (FRA)	22.97	Nicholas Santos Brazil (BRA)	23.09	László Cseh Hungary (HUN)  Konrad Czerniak Poland (POL)	23.15
100 m butterfly[16] details	Chad le Clos South Africa (RSA)	50.56 AF	László Cseh Hungary (HUN)	50.87	Joseph Schooling Singapore (SIN)	50.96 AS
200 m butterfly[17] details	László Cseh Hungary (HUN)	1:53.48	Chad le Clos South Africa (RSA)	1:53.68	Jan Świtkowski Poland (POL)	1:54.10
200 m individual medley[18] details	Ryan Lochte United States (USA)	1:55.81	Thiago Pereira Brazil (BRA)	1:56.65	Wang Shun China (CHN)	1:56.81
400 m individual medley[19] details	Daiya Seto Japan (JPN)	4:08.50	Dávid Verrasztó Hungary (HUN)	4:09.90	Chase Kalisz United States (USA)	4:10.05
4×100 m freestyle relay[20] details	France Mehdy Metella(48.37) Florent Manaudou(47.93) Fabien Gilot (47.08) Jérémy Stravius(47.36)	3:10.74	Russia Andrey Grechin (48.60) Nikita Lobintsev (47.98) Vladimir Morozov(46.95) Alexandr Sukhorukov(47.66)	3:11.19	Italy Luca Dotto (48.75) Marco Orsi (47.75) Michele Santucci (48.48) Filippo Magnini (47.55)	3:12.53
4×200 m freestyle relay[21] details	Great Britain Daniel Wallace(1:47.04) Robert Renwick(1:45.98) Calum Jarvis(1:46.57) James Guy (1:44.74)	7:04.33	United States Ryan Lochte (1:45.71) Conor Dwyer (1:45.33) Reed Malone (1:46.92) Michael Weiss(1:46.79)	7:04.75	Australia Cameron McEvoy(1:46.46) David McKeon (1:47.05) Daniel Smith (1:46.38) Thomas Fraser-Holmes(1:45.45)	7:05.34
4×100 m medley relay[22] details	United States Ryan Murphy (53.05) Kevin Cordes (58.88) Tom Shields (50.59) Nathan Adrian(47.41)	3:29.93	Australia Mitch Larkin (52.41) Jake Packard (59.16) Jayden Hadler (51.91) Cameron McEvoy(46.60)	3:30.08	France Camille Lacourt (52.81) Giacomo Perez-Dortona(59.88) Mehdy Metella (50.39) Fabien Gilot (47.42)	3:30.50

Four years ago:

Cesar Cielo looked like a heavy favorite to win back to back 50 freestyles at the Olympics. Cielo absolutely dominated in Shanghai, winning by a margin of .38 seconds. Olympic champion Florent Manadou was a good but not great French sprinter who didn’t even make the team in the 50 in Shanghai behind veterans Alain Bernard and Frederick Bousquet. In fact, he was somewhat the goat of French swimming: on the country’s prelims medley relay, his 54.0 butterfly split was the second-slowest of the entire field and the primary contributor to France failing to final in that race.

Manadou improved his personal best in the 50 freestyle by an entire second in six months to become an Olympic champion.

Four years later:

Now Manadou is the overwhelming favorite in the 50 free, and Mehdy Metella’s impressive fly split from Kazan has made French fans forget (by choice or nature) that Manaudou was ever their primary butterflier. He won this past summer in Kazan in nearly as dominating fashion as Cielo in 2011. Is he safe? It’s hard to believe we will see someone have the kind of crazy improvement that Manadou had in 2012. But could someone like Caeleb Dressel, making his first big time international team, be the one to upset the French giant?

Four year ago:

Germany was poised to have it’s best Olympic male performance since the 1980s. Paul Biedermann was back in great form, winning medals in the 200 and 400 freestyle. Christian Vom Lehn was an ascendant talent in the 200 breaststroke. Even older athletes like Helge Meeuw and Henrik Feldwehr were showing they still had something left in the tank.

But it was not to be. Germany fell flat on it’s face at the 2012 Olympics. The only medal came in open water by Thomas Lurz. Biedermann cratered- failing to even make the 400 freestyle final. He and Feldwehr performed so poorly that Germany did not use either on their medley relay. Had they repeated their Shanghai splits they would have been in medal contention.

Four years later:

Australia seems to be the country on the comeback trail this time around. Despite a tumultuous Olympic cycle, they returned to their rightful #2 spot in Kazan after finishing a dreadful 7th in the London medal count.

Their biggest stars, however, are mostly untested at the Olympics. Only time will tell whether they can withstand the pressure of Rio. Mitch Larkin swam only the 200 in London and ran out of gas in the final. Cameron McEvoy was just eighteen years old at that time. If those two swimmers aren’t on their game, Australia’s will have no chance to repeat their 4×100 medley silver from Kazan.

Four years ago:

Kosuke Kitajima, the greatest male breaststroke of all time, looked like he had enough in him for one more Olympic run. Kitajima, the only back to back Olympic champion in men’s breaststroke up to that point, was going for an unprecedented third straight title.

Although he was defeated by Daniel Gyurta over 200m in Shanghai, the margin was tight. Kitajima managed to swim even faster in London, but got overwhelmed by the then rapidly improving Gyurta, the homecrowd hero Michael Jamieson, and his own countrymen Tateishi.

Four years later:

Laszlo Cseh has been a perpetual bridesmaid his entire Olympic career. Despite his wide event set, he’s had the misfortune of sharing a generation with Phelps and Lochte. However, he’s given himself a little hope that finally, at age 30, he could break through in Rio.

Cseh notched personal bests in the 100 butterfly, to go with a non-suited best in the 200. Still, he has the same problem he always has, in this case being that Phelps is still hanging around and le Clos will be there as well, to go along with a host of young swimmers that will push their way into the final.

Check back for Part Two of “Four Years Later” . Where we will perform the same analysis of the women.