All the D1 women’s conference meets have been completed. We know who won the meets. We know who lost. But many swimmers and programs don’t measure success by how their team placed at the meet or if they gained 50 points over last year. Many people just want to go faster. Maybe their top swimmer is injured. Maybe their recruiting class was down this year. Even for top teams, simply dropping time and performing well is enough to make a meet a success.
Methodology
So how do we measure who dropped the most time? It’s a more complicated question than it seems. First the methodology I used.
- Grab every conference and nationals time from the last 4 years
- Find a swimmer’s previous best time in an event at a conference or national meet
- For times at conference meets this year, compare to a swimmer’s previous best conference/nationals time. If there is no previous best time move on
There are pros and cons to this method. By limiting previous best times to conference and nationals, we can be pretty sure that the swimmers baseline time was a rested swim that they were focused on. (There are always a few swimmers who enter the 50 and completely sandbag it. The most egregious tanking was tossed as outliers). This means we’re not giving credit to swimmers who pick up a new event for getting way faster when the main explanation for the improvement was a change of focus. (for example, I switched from the 500 to the 200 IM my senior year in college. My 200 IM at conference was a 5.5 second PR, but most of that improvement was because I’d never swum it rested before. My team’s improvement percentage shouldn’t benefit from this. If I had tapered it before, the improvement would have been much smaller. Therefore, this time isn’t included). This method has the downside of leaving out best times achieved at mid season meets, but that’s a small price to pay for relatively clean data.
Another flaw is that freshman performing extremely well makes a team do worse in this metric. Fast freshman times mean that swimmer’s baseline times are better, so it’s harder to drop time from them. Also because high school and club times aren’t included, team’s don’t get credit for freshman PR’s. Similarly, slow freshman times followed by fast times later will make a team look good. This isn’t a fatal flaw but it is worth keeping in mind while reviewing this data. Until there’s a single unified database for all swim times, I’m not sure there’s an easy fix to this issue.
Results
On average, swimmers added .02% to their conference/nationals PR’s at conference meets this year (standard deviation 1.81%, median -.09%). There were 6710 data points. 3511 performances or 52% were faster than their old PR. The data followed a pretty symmetric normal distribution (if anything there’s a slight skew to the right. positive is slower, negative is faster):
The top performing teams were mostly smaller teams from small conferences. Some, like Indiana State (dropped an average of 2.04%), are new programs. The top performing major conference team was Penn State. Their swimmers dropped an average of .95% from their times. SEC champs Texas A&M also performed well. Their swimmers dropped an average of .89% from their times and 76% of their swims were an improvement. The fact that nationals may be a bigger target meet for A&M than SEC’s makes this performance more impressive. Other teams who are definitely focused on nationals are Stanford and California. Stanford managed to drop time on average (.27%), but only 59% of their swims were faster. Cal added a bit of time (.12%) and dropped in only 49% of their swims. Both team’s numbers should improve once the get a chance to swim again at nationals.
A lot has been made of the improvement by Virginia swimmers under their new coach this year, and the numbers back that up. They were great. Virginia swimmers dropped an average of .7% from their times and 79% of their swims were faster. However, they were still out dropped by their conference rival NC State who dropped an average of .88% from their times. NC State’s underwhelming performance at their conference meet was mostly down to injuries to key swimmers. The swimmers that were able to make it to the meet actually performed extremely well.
Data
Negative is faster, positive is slower.
| School | Average Change | Number of Times | How Many Dropped Time | Conference |
| Virginia MI | -3.07% | 14 | 93% | CCSA |
| Fairfield | -2.17% | 35 | 83% | MAAC |
| Indiana State | -2.04% | 32 | 94% | Missouri Valley |
| American | -1.62% | 8 | 88% | The Patriot League |
| Saint Peters | -1.41% | 13 | 62% | MAAC |
| CSUB | -1.19% | 29 | 79% | WAC |
| Bryant U W | -1.02% | 31 | 77% | Northeast Conf |
| Towson | -1.01% | 36 | 81% | Colonial Athletic Assoc |
| San Jose St | -1.00% | 33 | 70% | Mountain West |
| Penn St | -0.95% | 21 | 67% | Big Ten |
| Monmouth | -0.94% | 19 | 74% | MAAC |
| St. Bonaventure | -0.91% | 28 | 71% | Atlantic 10 |
| Texas A&M | -0.89% | 29 | 76% | SEC |
| George Mason | -0.89% | 24 | 67% | Atlantic 10 |
| NC State | -0.88% | 22 | 82% | ACC |
| Seattle U W | -0.75% | 33 | 70% | WAC |
| GWU | -0.74% | 38 | 74% | Atlantic 10 |
| UCSB | -0.72% | 64 | 75% | Mountain Pacific Sports |
| Colorado St. | -0.71% | 22 | 73% | Mountain West |
| Fresno State | -0.71% | 47 | 70% | Mountain West |
| Air Force W | -0.70% | 39 | 72% | Mountain West |
| Georgia Tech | -0.70% | 36 | 72% | ACC |
| Virginia | -0.70% | 29 | 79% | ACC |
| Ohio St | -0.69% | 41 | 76% | Big Ten |
| Pittsburgh | -0.63% | 30 | 73% | ACC |
| Indiana | -0.63% | 46 | 67% | Big Ten |
| Minnesota | -0.62% | 47 | 60% | Big Ten |
| Kentucky | -0.61% | 38 | 76% | SEC |
| Duke | -0.59% | 32 | 69% | ACC |
| Tennessee | -0.59% | 25 | 64% | SEC |
| Eastern Mich | -0.52% | 29 | 76% | MAC |
| Arizona St | -0.52% | 27 | 70% | Pacific 12 |
| Loyola MD | -0.48% | 36 | 58% | The Patriot League |
| Rhode Island | -0.45% | 31 | 68% | Atlantic 10 |
| Florida | -0.44% | 34 | 71% | SEC |
| Delaware | -0.44% | 25 | 64% | Colonial Athletic Assoc |
| Vanderbilt | -0.43% | 28 | 68% | SEC |
| Fla Atlantic W | -0.40% | 33 | 64% | Conference USA |
| Wisconsin | -0.40% | 39 | 62% | Big Ten |
| Boston U | -0.40% | 24 | 58% | The Patriot League |
| Cleveland St | -0.39% | 27 | 70% | Horizon League |
| Missouri | -0.39% | 30 | 57% | SEC |
| UNC | -0.39% | 27 | 56% | ACC |
| U.S. Navy | -0.38% | 42 | 62% | The Patriot League |
| La Salle | -0.38% | 33 | 55% | Atlantic 10 |
| Denver | -0.37% | 46 | 61% | The Summit League |
| Liberty | -0.37% | 42 | 69% | CCSA |
| UNLV W | -0.37% | 21 | 62% | Mountain West |
| Louisville | -0.36% | 27 | 59% | ACC |
| TCU | -0.35% | 45 | 58% | Big 12 |
| Boston College | -0.35% | 28 | 57% | ACC |
| Wis.- Milwaukee | -0.34% | 38 | 68% | Horizon League |
| Florida Intl | -0.34% | 47 | 53% | Conference USA |
| Michigan St | -0.32% | 35 | 57% | Big Ten |
| Notre Dame | -0.32% | 31 | 61% | ACC |
| Wright State | -0.32% | 20 | 50% | Horizon League |
| St. Louis | -0.31% | 37 | 65% | Atlantic 10 |
| Colgate | -0.30% | 31 | 61% | The Patriot League |
| Arizona | -0.29% | 42 | 57% | Pacific 12 |
| Wagner | -0.29% | 40 | 60% | Northeast Conf |
| Southern Cali | -0.27% | 38 | 55% | Pacific 12 |
| Princeton | -0.27% | 27 | 67% | Ivy League |
| Youngstown St | -0.27% | 21 | 71% | Horizon League |
| Stanford | -0.27% | 37 | 59% | Pacific 12 |
| Lehigh | -0.27% | 33 | 70% | The Patriot League |
| Northern Iowa | -0.26% | 45 | 56% | Missouri Valley |
| St. Francis Pa. | -0.25% | 35 | 57% | Northeast Conf |
| Pacific | -0.24% | 42 | 62% | Mountain Pacific Sports |
| Army | -0.24% | 35 | 57% | The Patriot League |
| Auburn | -0.23% | 31 | 61% | SEC |
| Nebraska | -0.23% | 45 | 56% | Big Ten |
| LSU | -0.22% | 29 | 55% | SEC |
| Alabama | -0.20% | 36 | 53% | SEC |
| Michigan | -0.19% | 43 | 53% | Big Ten |
| Xavier | -0.19% | 44 | 61% | Big East |
| North Florida | -0.19% | 31 | 61% | CCSA |
| Cal Poly | -0.19% | 51 | 57% | Mountain Pacific Sports |
| Virginia Tech | -0.19% | 30 | 63% | ACC |
| Boise St | -0.17% | 37 | 62% | Mountain West |
| Florida St | -0.16% | 30 | 63% | ACC |
| Hawaii | -0.15% | 42 | 62% | Mountain Pacific Sports |
| Akron | -0.15% | 38 | 61% | MAC |
| Vermont | -0.14% | 58 | 57% | America East |
| Illinois St | -0.14% | 45 | 62% | Missouri Valley |
| Connecticut | -0.13% | 35 | 40% | American Athletic Conf |
| Duquesne | -0.13% | 47 | 60% | Atlantic 10 |
| Canisius | -0.12% | 18 | 61% | MAAC |
| Arkansas | -0.12% | 34 | 50% | SEC |
| Villanova | -0.11% | 42 | 60% | Big East |
| Buffalo | -0.11% | 43 | 56% | MAC |
| Iona Coll | -0.11% | 34 | 53% | MAAC |
| New Mexico | -0.11% | 29 | 52% | Mountain West |
| Northwestern | -0.09% | 32 | 56% | Big Ten |
| Holy Cross | -0.08% | 25 | 44% | The Patriot League |
| Ark.-Little Rock | -0.08% | 55 | 56% | Missouri Valley |
| Georgia | -0.08% | 32 | 63% | SEC |
| Wyoming W | -0.07% | 34 | 56% | Mountain West |
| Iowa | -0.07% | 50 | 60% | Big Ten |
| Campbell | -0.06% | 47 | 60% | CCSA |
| New Mexico St | -0.06% | 57 | 54% | WAC |
| Florida Gulf | -0.04% | 40 | 60% | CCSA |
| St. Francis | -0.03% | 21 | 52% | Northeast Conf |
| Iowa State | -0.03% | 41 | 59% | Big 12 |
| Purdue | -0.01% | 44 | 48% | Big Ten |
| Northeastern | 0.00% | 27 | 44% | Colonial Athletic Assoc |
| Columbia | 0.01% | 26 | 31% | Ivy League |
| Bucknell | 0.01% | 37 | 51% | The Patriot League |
| South Carolina | 0.02% | 38 | 42% | SEC |
| Davidson | 0.03% | 32 | 47% | Atlantic 10 |
| Brigham Young | 0.05% | 29 | 45% | Mountain Pacific Sports |
| Siena | 0.08% | 38 | 58% | MAAC |
| SIUC W | 0.10% | 56 | 48% | Missouri Valley |
| California | 0.12% | 45 | 49% | Pacific 12 |
| Manhattan | 0.13% | 30 | 47% | MAAC |
| Rice | 0.14% | 40 | 50% | Conference USA |
| Dartmouth | 0.14% | 21 | 52% | Ivy League |
| Fordham | 0.14% | 35 | 51% | Atlantic 10 |
| UNC Wilmington | 0.15% | 31 | 45% | Colonial Athletic Assoc |
| Washington St. | 0.17% | 21 | 43% | Pacific 12 |
| Miami Ohio | 0.18% | 37 | 49% | MAC |
| Wis.- Green Bay | 0.20% | 28 | 54% | Horizon League |
| UCLA | 0.21% | 45 | 44% | Pacific 12 |
| East Carolina | 0.21% | 41 | 46% | American Athletic Conf |
| Idaho | 0.23% | 42 | 48% | WAC |
| Yale | 0.24% | 33 | 42% | Ivy League |
| Providence | 0.25% | 43 | 49% | Big East |
| San Diego St | 0.26% | 33 | 52% | Mountain West |
| South Dakota St | 0.28% | 40 | 40% | The Summit League |
| Lafayette | 0.30% | 25 | 40% | The Patriot League |
| Cincinnati | 0.30% | 38 | 39% | American Athletic Conf |
| UC Davis | 0.30% | 33 | 42% | Mountain Pacific Sports |
| Marshall | 0.30% | 47 | 36% | Conference USA |
| IUPUI | 0.30% | 34 | 50% | Horizon League |
| Missouri St W | 0.32% | 37 | 43% | Missouri Valley |
| Oregon St | 0.33% | 12 | 58% | Pacific 12 |
| Gardner-Webb | 0.34% | 60 | 40% | CCSA |
| UN Omaha | 0.34% | 46 | 43% | The Summit League |
| Seton Hall | 0.35% | 37 | 49% | Big East |
| Northern Colo | 0.36% | 24 | 54% | WAC |
| Miami FL | 0.37% | 20 | 35% | ACC |
| Sacred Heart | 0.37% | 41 | 51% | Northeast Conf |
| San Diego | 0.38% | 28 | 36% | Mountain Pacific Sports |
| Butler | 0.38% | 35 | 46% | Big East |
| Illinois-Chicago | 0.38% | 43 | 40% | Horizon League |
| Pepperdine | 0.38% | 46 | 39% | Independent |
| Rider | 0.40% | 32 | 50% | MAAC |
| Harvard | 0.43% | 30 | 30% | Ivy League |
| Northern Ariz | 0.44% | 37 | 38% | WAC |
| Eastern Ill | 0.45% | 25 | 48% | The Summit League |
| Oakland | 0.46% | 37 | 30% | Horizon League |
| Utah | 0.48% | 41 | 34% | Pacific 12 |
| North Texas | 0.49% | 50 | 40% | Conference USA |
| Loy. Marymount | 0.50% | 44 | 32% | CAC |
| West Virginia | 0.51% | 43 | 53% | Big 12 |
| Illinois | 0.52% | 38 | 34% | Big Ten |
| Cornell | 0.54% | 20 | 35% | Ivy League |
| Texas | 0.55% | 36 | 42% | Big 12 |
| William & Mary | 0.57% | 37 | 38% | Colonial Athletic Assoc |
| UMBC | 0.58% | 56 | 36% | America East |
| Toledo | 0.58% | 35 | 37% | MAC |
| James Madison | 0.59% | 32 | 38% | Colonial Athletic Assoc |
| UNC Asheville | 0.59% | 58 | 47% | CCSA |
| SMU | 0.61% | 39 | 33% | American Athletic Conf |
| Drexel | 0.61% | 28 | 46% | Colonial Athletic Assoc |
| New Hampshire | 0.62% | 31 | 35% | America East |
| South Dakota | 0.65% | 31 | 16% | The Summit League |
| Marist | 0.68% | 26 | 35% | MAAC |
| Old Dominion W | 0.69% | 17 | 35% | Conference USA |
| Maine | 0.72% | 59 | 46% | America East |
| Mt St Marys | 0.75% | 35 | 46% | Northeast Conf |
| Niagara | 0.78% | 25 | 56% | MAAC |
| Richmond | 0.80% | 33 | 30% | Atlantic 10 |
| Brown | 0.81% | 37 | 38% | Ivy League |
| Central Conn St | 0.83% | 28 | 18% | Northeast Conf |
| Houston | 0.84% | 33 | 39% | American Athletic Conf |
| Nevada | 0.84% | 18 | 22% | Mountain West |
| Incarnate Word | 0.88% | 31 | 26% | CCSA |
| Tulane | 0.89% | 37 | 24% | American Athletic Conf |
| Massachusetts | 0.89% | 32 | 34% | Atlantic 10 |
| Grand Canyon | 0.92% | 28 | 32% | WAC |
| Bowling Green | 0.93% | 23 | 43% | MAC |
| Ball State | 0.97% | 40 | 20% | MAC |
| Penn | 0.98% | 26 | 23% | Ivy League |
| Howard | 1.01% | 14 | 29% | CCSA |
| Binghamton | 1.01% | 52 | 29% | America East |
| Georgetown | 1.01% | 51 | 43% | Big East |
| Western Ill | 1.02% | 33 | 36% | The Summit League |
| Evansville W | 1.06% | 39 | 26% | Missouri Valley |
| Ohio | 1.15% | 46 | 28% | MAC |
| Rutgers | 1.22% | 24 | 33% | Big Ten |
| Kansas | 1.27% | 48 | 33% | Big 12 |
| GA Southern | 1.57% | 33 | 21% | CCSA |
| LIU Brooklyn | 3.52% | 9 | 22% | Northeast Conf |
How does komisarz still have a job at Ohio? After locking the team in the team room for “being less than mediocre”, it’s clear why they are in the bottom 5 for improvement.
She was fired this afternoon. Contract not renewed and moving on to derail something else.
George Mason should not be that high. This method is arbitrary. They barely went any best times
Best times: Melissa Carrol 53.54 100 free, Rachel Williams 1:51.46 200 free (relay lead off), Christina McLemore 56.79 100 fly, Hannah Ickenberry 17:10.05 1650. I can give you 10 more examples. They also didn’t have anyone add a large amount of time and drag down their average. The largest time add they had was barely over 1% and they had 7 time drops over 2%.
Al (aka “still baffled”) accompanied by friend, “Rested in January,” only time will tell if The Desorbo Effect is real, but from what I can see so far, the UVA coaching staff is both #proven and recruits keep fall for their Magic so not sure what is baffling?
Al is clearly intentionally making posts to get under people’s skin…aka trolling. Just ignore him and he’ll go away.
Every time I check on swimswam, UVA and NC State are all over the comment section…. this is fun!
Not all schools listed. At least Valpo is missing.
c’mon, Brooklyn…. get it together.
Can we look at that HOWEVER though? NC State continues to be on the rise and dominate the field.
Shouldn’t this be run after NCAAs? Some of the top programs have a majority of swimmers who haven’t even tapered yet.
The large majority of these schools have to taper at their conference meet in order to qualify for ncaa’s. So unless you are a Texas, Texas A&M Stanford or Cal, these numbers should be pretty accurate.