Have the USA’s Expected Medley Relay Line-Ups Changed After Day 3? I’d say, Yes

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I hate to admit it, folks, but we are already a third of the way through the pool competition. If counted by morning sessions, it is actually more than a third of the way completed, as the final day of swimming has no prelims session.

These past few days, we have gained considerably more information about the USA’s possible medley relays. We have seen the completion of the men’s and women’s 100 breaststroke, as well as the women’s 100 butterfly and men’s 100 backstroke. This evening saw the semifinals of the women’s 100 backstroke, and if one adds in the 4×100 free relay, the only swimmers we have not seen are the male butterfliers.

Let’s break things down stroke by stroke as not only the men’s and women’s relays might have changed, but so too has the mixed medley.

Backstroke

Women: Regan Smith posted the fastest time in the women’s 100 backstroke semifinal this evening of 57.97. Katharine Berkoff was 57.99 in the prelims and qualified 3rd into the final in 58.27. It would take a big upset for Berkoff to get ahead of Smith and even then if she did they Coaching staff may stick with Smith as she is the fastest woman ever.

Men: Ryan Murphy won the bronze medal in 52.39, and Hunter Armstrong missed out on the semifinals, finishing in 11th (53.11), all but locking up the backstroke leg for the medley relay for Murphy. Armstrong, however may still yet have a part to play on the men’s medley relay.

Breaststroke

Women: Pretty straightforward. Lilly King tied for 4th in the 100-breast final in a time of 1:05.60, while fellow American entrant Emma Weber tied for 23rd in a time of 1:07.65 in the prelims.

Men: Like the women, not much changed from Trials to Paris. Nic Fink tied for silver in the 100 breast in a time of 59.05, while Chalie Swanson failed to advance out of the semifinals, finishing 14th in 1:00.16. While hopefully nothing will come of it, Fink was in close contact with Adam Peaty for an extended period of time last night, and the Brit just recently tested positive for COVID.

Butterfly

Women: This is where things get a little dicey. Gretchen Walsh posted a World record time of 55.18 at the US Olympic Trials last month, and in the semifinals of the 100 fly, she set an Olympic record of 55.38. However, in the finals, it was her compatriot Torri Huske who got their hands onto the wall first, claiming gold in 55.59, just .04 ahead of Walsh’s 55.63.

Men: This event has yet to occur, so Caeleb Dressel is still likely the pick.

Freestyle

Women: Since there is no individual 100 yet, the only results to go on are from the 4×100 relay and from the Olympic Trials. Kate Douglass won the Olympic Trials in 52.56 but gave up the individual event. Douglass anchored the prelims of the 4×100 free relay in 52.63 and led off the American record-setting relay in 52.98. Huske and Walsh, who will represent the US in the individual event, were also a part of the finals relay, splitting 52.06 and 52.55.

Men: The men’s individual 100 also has not yet taken to the water, so the relay results are the only additional information we have. Chris Guiliano and Jack Alexy will be the two individual entrants from their times of 47.38 and 47.47 from Trials. In the finals of the relay, Alexy led off in 47.67, Guiliano was second in 47.33. While the individual 100 likely will make things clearer, Hunter Armstrong‘s 46.75 flying split can not be overlooked.

Analysis

Women: The front half is set as Smith would have to face a near disaster to not lead this relay off, and King will occupy her familiar position as the breaststroke leg. While Douglass has the faster personal best in the 100 free (and has split under 52 before) if one were to subtract reaction times from their relay splits (so as to even out some of the advantage of relay start), Douglass’s best performance so far is 52.31, while Huske’s is 52.06.

While there are many races between now and the medley relay, on paper, the team of Smith, King, Walsh, and Huske appears to be the best option. However, it is still early days, and the mixed medley relay may provide more answers.

Men: The men are more straightforward. Murphy and Fink are locks on the front half, and with no results from the 100 fly there is nothing to question Dressel’s fly ability. The freestyle leg, however, raises some questions.

If we perform the same math equation as we did with the women. Split – reaction time. Armstrong still leads the field by a wide margin. The backstroke was 46.75 and had a slow flying start of .37, giving him a time of 46.38, whereas the next fastest is Jack Alexy, who had a lead-off split of 47.67 and a reaction time of .69, giving him a time of 46.98. The individual 100 will hopefully lead to more insight, and if Alexy can get back down to his 47.08 from the prelims of the US Trials, then he likely has the spot locked. As it stands right now, the medley relay on paper appears to be Murphy, Fink, Dressel, and Armstrong, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the fast of Guiliano or Alexy on the ancho if they swim well in the individual 100.

Mixed:  The before-meet math had the order of FMFM as the fastest combination with Smith, Fink, Walsh, and Guiliano adding up to 3:38.90. Second fastest was the FMMF order of Smith, Fink, Dressel, and Douglass clocking in at 3:38.96. However, and while Smith has yet to swim her final, the fastest combination I could find (using only the best times/splits from this week) is the traditional MMFF order. Murphy and Fink, both medalists in the individual event, start things off and hand things over to Walsh, who was 55.38 in the semis, and Huske anchors (with her 52.06 split from the relay. As a team, they add up to 3:38.88, but the FMFM order of Smith, Fink, Walsh, and Armstrong is not far behind at 3:39.16, and if Smith can drop from her 57,92 to even 57.42, then this relay would be the fastest on paper.

The Mixed relay also overlaps with the finals of the men’s 100 fly, the finals of the 200 IM, and the semifinals of the 50 free, so Douglass would have the hardest double of the evening (Dressel could have the 100 fly final and Walsh the 50 free semi). If she makes the final of the IM, Huske would likely take the freestyle leg over Douglass.