Michael Phelps is back to pre-2008 Olympic form. That’s the takeaway from the 2015 U.S. Nationals in San Antonio. Physically, he looked strong, stronger than ever, and his times spoke for themselves.
We beat the drum all season, making predictions, debating what we thought Phelps would go. Interestingly, Coach Bob Bowman laughed about it off-camera at U.S. Nationals, said, “We knew he’d go fast, but Mel, come on?”
Confession: I never thought Phelps would swim faster than all of my predictions. I knew I’d put up the fastest ones, and that I’d get called-out for it.
The impression I got from Bowman on deck in San Antonio was he knew Phelps would post solid times, but not times that fast. I think Bob’s rarely surprised…and Phelps surprised us all.
Instead of jumping into predictions–because I’m going there–I have two questions.
What was Phelps’ best swim? They were all lights-out. I think it’s tough to say. I’m biased, so I’m going with 200m butterfly. I think it’s hard to go sub 1:53 in such a grueling event. 200 fly takes the most base-work to produce a great swim. For that reason, I’m picking 200 fly. What event do you think was Phelps’ best?
Phelps was crystal clear about one thing in his post-race interviews. He’d like to put up a best time, a tall order in the shadow of the tech-suit era. Of course Phelps would like to swim all best times next summer, but I think the one race he’d like to swim a PB is the 100m butterfly… I also think it’s the hardest of them all. 49.82 is so fast. It’s sick! What’s the one event you think Phelps would most like to achieve a PB?
Lastly, let’s play the prediction game. I know it’s stupidly early to do it, but we can always recalibrate as we near the summer of 2016.
Michael Phelps 2016 Olympic Predictions:
100m Butterfly – I say Phelps swims sub 50, a textile best, threatening his rubberized 49.82, but just misses it.
200 Butterfly – Phelps swims 1:51…something. I don’t care. I’ll take 1:51 point 9, but I think he dips under 1:52 in a textile suit.
200m IM – Phelps swims 1:53.81. I’m getting specific on this one because I think it’s his best shot at a PB and a new world record. (NOTE: Phelps’ 200 IM PB is 1:54.16 from the 2011 World Champs in Shanghai. Phelps turned that swim in right behind his longtime friend and rival Ryan Lochte. Lochte won in 1:54.00 to claim the WR…. On another note, I’m not 100% certain Phelps will win next summer. He’s got stiff competition in this event. Lochte tops the list, and after getting bested by Phelps in August, you know Lochte’s going to be hyper-focused on that race. In sum, one thing is certain. We’re going Back to the Future in Omaha next year at the 2016 U.S. Olympic Swimming Trials.)
What are your Michael Phelps predictions for the 2016 Olympic Games (or U.S. Trials)?
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This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com, a Swimming News website.
After better then expected results this summer, Phelps and Bowman are going to pull out all the stops for a good performance in Rio. I’m not telling anyone here anything they don’t already know.
For MP to repeat even this year’s results everything will have to be planned and executed perfectly. With the heavy mileage of Bowman’s program in the past, I worry that some overtraining could occur given Phelps’s age. If something goes just a little bit wrong at some point during training, the peak season results could really be affected. He’ll be great next year, but to say that he’ll be better then 2008 is a very tall order.
I’m very interested to see how he handles his… Read more »
49.7 in the 100 fly, sub 1:52 in the 200 fly, and an extraordinary time in the 100 free. He’ll be out much faster in the first 50 in both fly and free than ever before- especially in the first 25 meters.
Don’t sleep on Tom Shields. That’s a huge mistake.
People keep saying that, but Shields is still yet to prove himself internationally in long course. Sure he had a terrific 100 fly in Kazan but was still out of the league for medals. 51 low or even 50 high probably won’t cut it.
There is the difference of 2 rounds x 3 rounds also he will have the relays. Don’t know if us will be able to rest adrian and Phelps on the free relay prelims. But it seems if they bring relay only swimmers they must swim is that right?
I think MP won’t post textile bests in 200 IM and 100 fly simply because of fatigue. He never swam PB’s in those events in the last 3 Olympics because they come at the end of his program. That’s why he is very vulnerable in these 2 events. Also that is why we may never see his true potential in these events.
True, but he’s also got the weight of 2 gruelling 400 IM’s off his shoulders.
Not to mention in Beijing every one of his 17 races was a statement race, whether it was to get into lane 4 in the final, or show the rest of the field they have no chance. London was different as we saw Phelps struggle out of the gates, and perform just well enough to get the job done. If anything his 200 IM was the highlight of his London performance.
Exposed ?
Captain Mel: 3-race events (I.e., prelims, semis, and finals) come and go in Olympics history.
For example: in 1932, swimmers had to swim three times to win a medal.
1932 Men’s 100 Free results: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swimming_at_the_1932_Summer_Olympics_%E2%80%93_Men%27s_100_metre_freestyle
In 1964, Don Schollander had to do the same to win gold in the 100 free.
1964 Men’s 100 Free results:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swimming_at_the_1964_Summer_Olympics_%E2%80%93_Men%27s_100_metre_freestyle
Mark Spitz had to swim three times to win gold in the 100 free in 1972.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swimming_at_the_1972_Summer_Olympics_%E2%80%93_Men%27s_100_metre_freestyle
Good knowledge, Years of Plain Suck!
Gold Medal Melanie/Years of Plain Suck – it is against SwimSwam’s commenting policy to have one person use multiple user names to make it seem like they have more support for their cause than they really do. Please refrain from doing so.
That’s almost more embarrassing than having all your comments moderated.
:/
#ROASTED by the man Braden himself.
🙂
dang… braden with the KO.
It’s clear my predictions for Michael were aggressive before US Nationals, leaning on the fast side. Most every one else was very conservative, predicting solid times for him (still great times), but not mind-blowing…. Now that Phelps beat of us all, I feel we’re suffering from:
PREDICTION INFLATION
I’m seeing some super-fast times… I feel my predictions for Rio are leaning on the fast side. At the end of the day next summer, when the Olympics are over, I hope Phelps beats one of them and is near the rest. Frankly I think Olympic Games are slower than we all expect b/c athletes race for medals. Few fans (other than us) remember the times. They remember who won the race… Read more »
I really hate that 3 race per event rule. It’s one thing in track and field, where your place in your preliminary and semi heat counts, and not your time. In swimming we always go by time. I don’t see the point, unless it is to prevent a Phelps-2008-like performance. It makes it hard to compare with athletes of yesteryear. Would Spitz have won 7 golds racing 3X per event? Who knows.
Exactly… Also, Phelps didn’t do 400 IM three times, but he started his 2008 schedule with that event twice. That’s brutal…. I think Phelps’ 08 performance is so far beyond Spitz’s.
I was one of your readers who quietly read your predictions for Phelps at US Nationals and said, not a chance. So I wouldn’t be so bold as to challenge them here, or…1:51.9- seems possible for Phelps in Rio, even historic, you know what sounds Phelpsian? 1:51.50WR. He swam the race blind in ’08 and, by his own admission, not in top shape in ’09. I smell blood.
I was reading the men’s textile world records. Two swims jump out at me. The first was Ian Thorpe’s 3:40.08, 400 free, 13 years 2 months and 22 days old. Sad that Biederman only beat it by a hundredth, the most tragic record to fall to the supersuit. But I digress. The… Read more »
Forgive me for this late reply, but didn’t you say that ( hope he gets one and is near others) for US Nationals? I think MP will make your predictions and surpass at least the 200 IM and 100 fly. As for the 200 fly, he had no idea he was on that pace. But now he knows he can swim that fast. He wanted to go a 1:54, he went a 1:52.94. I think there’s a good chance he breaks 1:51.51