How Low Can He Go? Leon Marchand Appears Primed For Another Record-Setting 400 IM

2023 NCAA DIVISION I MEN’S SWIMMING & DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

• March 22-25, 2023
• Jean K. Freeman Aquatic Center | Minneapolis, MN
• SCY (25 yards)
• Meet Central
• Psych Sheets
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• SwimSwam Pick ’em Contest
• Live Results

You can’t blame swim fans for being just a smidgen greedy, at least in regard to wanting to see some amazing times. And after five NCAA records have gone down in Minneapolis over the last two days, it seems like a foregone conclusion we’ll see some more tonight.

And with all due to respect to the 400 medley relay, which will close out the session, the most anticipated swim of the night may come in the very first event, the 400 IM.

Of course, that event features the defending NCAA champion and former U.S. Open record holder, Hugo Gonzalez, and the reigning long course World Championships silver medalist, Carson Foster, and there’s certainly a non-zero chance that either one could pull out the win.

But for most fans (including 96.9% of those who entered our Pick ‘Em contest), it’s a foregone conclusion that Arizona State sophomore Leon Marchand will continue his onslaught on the record book with some sort of video game-esque time in the 400 IM. After all, he’s already broken the record twice in the last two months, and after last night, he’s now the fastest man ever in the 200 IM by nearly two seconds. In this morning’s prelims race, he was ahead of record pace through the first half of the 400 IM, then seemed to shut it down, “coasting” to a 3:34.47 and taking the top seed of the morning ahead of Gonzalez (3:35.86) and Foster (3:36.38).

So, with appropriate apologies to Gonzalez, Foster, and ASU teammate Hubert Kos, let’s ponder for a moment…just how low can Marchand go?

Marchand’s 2023 Split Comparisons

Again, Marchand was well under his own record pace through the first half of this morning’s swim, thanks largely to an incredibly swift 47.22 opening leg. His breaststroke leg was then nearly two seconds slower than it was when he set the current record earlier this morning, and his freestyle leg was almost a second and a half slower.

If we add Marchand front half from this morning with his backhalf from Pac-12s, we get a time of 3:30.12. That’s tantalizingly close to the 3:29 swim that a lot of swim fans seem to be chattering about. And Marchand has yet to show any difficulties swimming substantially faster in finals than in prelims. Here’s how his NCAA Championships career looks so far in that regard:

Without getting too deep into the math, it looks safe to project Marchand to drop right around four seconds again from prelims to finals. That puts him at a 3:30-mid, enough to knock another second off of the all-time mark, but not enough to get under the magical, mystical 3:30-barrier. Again, the “safe” bet is that he breaks the all-time mark by a second.

The big question here may be just how much Gonzalez, Foster, and the rest of the field could push him. If Marchand has a three second lead towards the end of the race, it might be temping to drop it down a gear and save a little bit for the 400 medley relay, an event in which ASU may be the hunt for a team title. If he’s got men on his heels (and again, it’d be foolhardy to totally ignore that possibility), that may propel him into hitherto-unfathomable territory.

Either way, swims fan should be in store for a race for the ages tonight here in Minneapolis. What’s your prediction for Marchand’s time tonight?