How Will Texas Fare In The SEC? Analyzing Simulated 2024 Results

Three years after accepting the invitation, the University of Texas officially became a member of the SEC on July 1, 2024, marking a seismic shift in the college sports landscape.

Texas’ addition to the conference comes one year earlier than initially agreed upon, as the Longhorns and the University of Oklahoma reached a $100 million agreement with the Big 12 for an early exit last year.

Texas has long been a powerhouse in college swimming, with the men’s team having placed either 1st or 2nd at the NCAA Championships for eight straight seasons from 2014 until 2022, while the women have reeled off three consecutive runner-up finishes at nationals after placing 3rd in 2021.

At the Big 12 Championships, the Longhorns have absolutely dominated the competition, but now in the SEC, conference titles won’t be a foregone conclusion.

At least for the men, comparing last season’s Texas team to the one we’ll see in 2024-25 might be like apples and oranges. They’ve got a new frontman, head coach and Director of Swimming Bob Bowman, and will make significant additions including transfers Hubert Kos, Rex Maurer and Andrew Shackell, incoming freshmen Cooper Lucas and Kyle Peck, and the return of David Johnston, who redshirted the 2023-24 season.

The women’s team, led by Carol Capitani, will lose Kelly Pash but retains a good chunk of their core and figure to be a top-three team at NCAAs once again.

But how will they fare at the SEC Championships?

Below, find the results of the 2024 SEC Championships with Texas’ times from Big 12s factored into the results.

Simulation courtesy of Kevin Hallmann. Note that the simulator only includes results from the top nine scoring teams, so the results are not exact. You can scroll down in the embedded PDF to see each event.

MEN’S RESULTS

[pdf-embedder url=”https://swimswam.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Swimming-Simulator.pdf” title=”Swimming Simulator”]

Projected Team Standings

1. Florida, 754.5
2. Auburn, 450.5
3. Georgia, 434.0
4. Tennessee, 414.0
5. Texas, 352.0
6. Texas A&M, 337.5
7. Alabama, 205.5
8. LSU, 187
9. South Carolina, 133

WOMEN’S RESULTS

[pdf-embedder url=”https://swimswam.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Swimming-Simulator2.pdf” title=”Swimming Simulator2″]

Projected Team Standings

1. Florida, 661.5
2. Texas, 580
3. Tennessee, 508.5
4. Texas A&M, 384.5
5. Georgia, 307
6. Auburn, 268
7. Alabama, 251
8. South Carolina, 211.5
9. LSU, 127

One major caveat that goes along with any changes to rosters next season is the fact that Texas essentially doesn’t taper at all for Big 12s—at least their top swimmers who have locked up NCAA qualification don’t—because they can cruise to the conference title quite easily.

That leads the Longhorns to have some relatively slow times factored into the simulated results, which is one of the reasons why the men would’ve only placed 5th, more than 400 points back of Florida, and the women would’ve been distant runners-up to the Gators at the 2024 SECs.

Given the additions they’ve made, and the fact that we’ll surely see Bowman have them—at least the men’s team—ready to swim fast when the conference championships come around—at ASU, we saw Bowman’s swimmers going quick all season—the battle at SECs promises to be exciting.

But after claiming the conference title was an afterthought for so many years, a stepping stone to the NCAA Championships,the Longhorns now have their work cut out for them if they are to become SEC champions, with Florida being the team standing in their way.