Can Joseph Schooling win gold at the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio? I think so, if the 100 butterfly final is slow, meaning the winning time is 50.4 or 50.5.
Joe’s progression in the sport points to a medal finish in Rio. Joe’s a racer. His 44 100 yard butterfly and monstrous 1:37 200 yard fly at NCAA Championships was eye-opening. Swim-fans expected him to swim lightning fast–but not that fast. True, yards times don’t always translate to meters, but Joe’s 2015 World Championships bronze in the 100m butterfly, 50.9, proves he’s Olympic-stage ready.
I still think Michael Phelps has a sub 50 in him this summer. Everything has to lineup for Phelps to do it, but it’s possible. Clearly Phelps is the man to beat in Rio, but you’re foolish not to keep an eye on Schooling. Joe. Is. Dangerous. He’s got mean speed going out and grit coming home.
AS A FAN I’D LIKE TO SEE:
- Phelps win in sub 50
- Schooling edge Chad le Clos for the silver
- Jack Conger in the mix
We all know Jack’s got the talent to breakthrough. Jack tapered twice last summer, once for World University Games and again for US Summer Nationals. He swam fast in 2015, but because of the two tapers, we did not see his best effort.
I AM BIASED
As a US-based fan, I’m pulling for Phelps and Conger and every other Team USA athlete, but the 100 fly is deep with talent globally, and I always leave Laszlo Cseh out of the mix. After his recent turn at European Championships, he’s clearly ready to challenge in Rio, in both the 100 and 200 fly.
Could the entire 100 butterfly final be under 50.7? I think it’s possible.
Could the entire 100 butterfly final be 50.5 (winning time) to 51.1? I could see that as well if the pool and living conditions are challenging.
FINAL THOUGHT
Schooling shaves 5 tenths from his 2015 World Championships 100 fly, the 50.9. Schooling turns in a 50.4 in Rio. After a shaky 200 fly at Worlds last year, Schooling puts together a solid 200 fly final. In the video above, I called it at 1:53 low, but I think he’s 1:52 something, and Schooling edges le Clos or Cseh getting on the medal podium.
What do you think?
You can follow Joseph Schooling on Twitter here.
SEE JOE’S 1:37 200 YARD BUTTERFLY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8tTBXM6pXY
RECENT EPISODES
This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com, a Swimming News website.
100 fly: This one is going to be the closest race in Rio IMO. It’s MP’s last individual race, prob Cseh too, so they will be extra motivated, but even counting that, Le Clos, Schooling and Shields will be in the mix and anyone could get in medal territory. I’m going with Phelps first, Le Clos 2nd and Cseh 3rd. I think medal times will be in the 50.2 – 50.6 range and 50 high will not be enough for a medal this time (Schooling / Shields).
200 fly: I just don’t see anyone but Phelps winning this one. It’s his first individual swim and the last time he’ll swim his bread and butter event, so I would expect him… Read more »
The only problem with him is if he puts too much into the 200 fly , i.e. goes sub 1:52, it could take a lot out of him. While some people may not see it, he will be 31 and he is human. However, I think he is too mentally tough to fall and i think he (officially) ends his career with 3 more individual golds, 2 relays (medley and 4×200), and a bronze in the 4×100
He’ll be fine, don’t buy into the hype about him being 31. Both he and Cseh are proving you can still swim multiple events at peak performance in your early 30’s.
I am routing for Schooling…go Schooling go…!!!
I believe Conger will be in the mix in the 200 fly, don’t forget about him. He’s got something to prove!
One could make the argument that Conger has a better chance than Schooling. He wasn’t far off of Schooling in the 200y fly at NCAA’s and had a hell of a swim himself. Conger has typically been better, much better, in 200m fly than Schooling so I like his chances. I think he comes in second at trials and beats Schooling in the 200m fly in Rio. He’s tired of getting beat by Joe.
It’s not as sure of a thing as money in the bank, but much more certain than putting money in the Kirtland Safety Society 🙂
That is a very good point. Nobody has mentioned Jack, even though he went 1:38 when no one else had, he was still second fiddle to joe because he lacked the explosiveness and ump in his stroke. He is much more suited for long course, where he will easily qualify at trials in 200 fly. 100 fly might be tough, but I think in Rio, he makes the final and could go 1:54.0 for 4th/5th place. 1:53 mid could get him a medal.
Could the entire 100 butterfly final be 50.5 (winning time) to 51.1? I could see that as well if the pool and living conditions are challenging.
As Mel’s ‘pessimistic’ view on the event, that is still very optimistic. Eight swimmers faster than the winning time in 2012? I doubt it. Olympic finals often aren’t the fastest they could be, especially on Day Seven of the games.
I’m with you all the way Mel. I think coming off of a great NCAAS (even though it’s short course it’s still a confidence booster) he will be training even harder right next to Jack Conger who is 153. They will push each other to the limit and Joe will certainly look alot better in the 200. You could never underestimate those guys training under eddy and Kris, and he gets his long time coach Sergio for the lead up which should be good. NEVER COUT ANYONE OUT!!
Few people are with me on the Schooling prediction….. I’m feeling alone again, like when I predicted Phelps would go 1:53 low in the 2-fly at 2015 US Nats…. I guess we’ll see what a 1:37 200 yard fly = in meters in Rio… I’ll repost this a couple weeks before Rio and we can pick the discussion up then.
I may not be with you on this prediction Mel, but I love these GMM segments. You and the staff have knocked it out of the park with this site and provide us fans with some great content on a daily basis.
Lol I thought I read an article a while back saying Joe was only swimming the 100 free/fly in rio
Glad Joe Schooling is been recognised as a potential gold medalist, if he wins the 100 I wouldn’t be shocked at all. I think Cseh is massively underrated in swimswam predictions on fly. 1.52.9, 50.8, 23.3 (23.0 at worlds) suggest he has the tools to win both fly events.
Let’s look at Phelps for a minute, imo his swimming speeds have been equal or greater in pre Olympic years. Take 100/200fly
100fly;
2003 – 51.10
2004 – 51.29
2007: 50.77
2008: 50.58 (in LZR)
2011: 50.71
2012: 51.21
200fly;
2003: 1.54.35 (1.53.93 WR semi)
2004: 1.54.04
2007: 1.52.09
2008: 1.52.03 (in LZR)
2011: 1.53.34
2012: 1.53.01
And in 2015:… Read more »
You make a great point about Phelps and his front end speed. I don’t know if he can go out in 23.5, which is what it will take for him to be sub 50.
Le Clos going a 50.1, I don’t see it. He’s not disciplined enough not to look around.
Very reasonable on Schooling in the 200m fly. I might give him a 1:54 high and maybe make the finals, but people put down the Koolaide. We get it, you like Joe, but you are setting this poor kid up for a huge disappointment in the 200. Let him get his 50.9-51.2 in the 100m and be happy.
This is interesting… About Phelps, I think the thing that people are really underestimating is the way he’s changed in the last couple of years, and even since last summer. He’s changed his entire outlook on life (or so he claims). If that’s really true, I think he will be able to blast some really impressive times. I think his times in 2012, especially, have to be discarded when trying to figure out how fast he’ll be; he wasn’t enjoying the sport at all, and he won (or lost) through sheer talent. Now he’s putting in work, and loving it; so, I think he will have the energy to take on a pretty tough program, and absolutely destroy his recent… Read more »
Im thinking Shields will be there
He maybe watching in the stands that evening, but Shields isn’t qualifying in the 200m fly. He was 1:55/1:56 last year with a piano on his back. I’ve seen nothing from him since that indicates things are different in the 200 in 2016. He might be there in the 100, but 200 maybe he finals and gets 4th.
Finals and gets 4th at trials I should clarify.