2024 MEN’S NCAA SWIMMING AND DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS
- March 27-30, 2024
- IUPUI Natatorium, Indianapolis, Indiana
- Short Course Yards (25 yards)
- Pre-Selection Psych Sheets
When the pre-selection psych sheets were dropped late Monday night, there were lots of interesting event selections, but none will send more shockwaves through the sport than the decision by Leon Marchand of France to swim the 500 free on the 2nd day of the meet and not the 200 IM.
That goes along with his usual NCAA schedule of the 400 IM and 200 breaststroke, both of which he wont titles in last season.
Marchand is the two-time defending NCAA Champion in the 200 IM, and his 1:36.34 is the fastest time ever in that event. Still, he swam the 500 free at the Pac-12 Championships last week and won in 4:06.18 – which is also the fastest time ever, in spite of not being fully rested for the meet (a statement supported by both his teammates and his results in other races).
Doing the comparative math leaves some eye-opening possibilities about what Marchand could do in the 500 free at the NCAA Championships later this month.
So Leon went 3:34.66 in the 400 IM last night. He's been 3:28.82. He's been 2.8% faster in the 400 IM.
By the transitive property of swimming, if he went 4:06.18 in the 500 free, at his best he can go 3:59.29.
I don't make the rules, that's just math. @BarryRevzin check me. pic.twitter.com/WVgEOeNPOh
— Braden Keith (@Braden_Keith) March 9, 2024
Of course, this is not really how swimming works, and I don’t actually think he’s going to go a 3:59.29. But I also think we can’t write off the possibility of a paradigm-shifting swim like he’s done in the 400 IM. The 400 IM record was 3:33.42 by Chase Kalisz when Marchand began his college career, and now that record is 3:28.82.
That leads me to believe that some time that doesn’t really sound right – maybe a 4:02 or a 4:03 – is not outside of the realm of reason.
While Arizona State feels more-and-more like the favorites every week, the two-time defending champions from Cal are still contenders in this team race, and there are some point implications of this choice.
In both races, Arizona State has the top seed not named Leon Marchand – Zalan Sarkany in the 500 free, and Hubert Kos (in the 200 IM. In fact, Arizona State has the top two seeds in the 200 IM even without Marchand – Hubert Kos (1:38.77) and Owen McDonald (1:39.35).
Still, in both cases, his teammates are susceptible to threats from Cal swimmers who skipped the Pac-12 Championships – Destin Lasco in the 200 IM, who was the runner-up last year in a new American Record of 1:38.10, and Gabriel Jett, who was 6th at NCAAs last year in the 500 free in 4:12.52.
While Jett has had some trouble hitting his NCAA taper in past seasons, the potential is clear in the 500 free.
It’s a bit of a tricky calculation, because while Cal’s Lasco is the bigger threat of the two, he has to go against the better #2 in Hubert Kos, who has been racing very well all season. Zalan Sarkany‘s 4:09.19 seed in the 500 free, meanwhile, is a few seconds slower than the likely winning time with swimmers like Jake Magahey, Jake Mitchell, and Luke Hobson lurking.
In the 500 free, Marchand’s presence tamps down on two seeded Arizona State scorers (#2 seed Sarkany, #13 seed Julian Hill) and one seeded Cal scorer (#4 seed Gabriel Jett). In the 200 IM, he would have pushed down three seeded Arizona State scorers (Kos, McDonald, #11 seed David Schlicht) and one seeded Cal scorer (Lasco).
And of course all of the above math presumes a Marchand win in either race – which seems a given if he hits his taper again. He always seems to hit his taper, and that has to be the basis and assumption on which this decision was made.
Ultimately, this feels like a Virginia-esque decision to separate the team’s biggest stars into different races to build a wave of momentum. Arizona State will want that momentum early because Cal shows year-after-year how good they are on the final day of the meet – though this year with Marchand, Kos, and Kharun holding top seeds for day four, they’re going to be very good as well.
This is Arizona State’s meet to lose, and I think ultimately this decision will just ramp-up the hype factor of the expected win. In team swimming, that matters – both in the now, and the later.
Was hoping to see a 1:35 mid to high 200 im, 4:02.8 500 I bett though
It would be fun but no he’s not breaking 4 minutes.
To think, he’s gonna go out the Haas line or faster (1:59 at 250) and hold on..
Haas walked so that someone else could run
2024 NCAA prediction for the Men’s 500 free
1. Marchand – 4:04.62
2. Hobson – 4:07.51
3. Sarkany – 4:08.95
4. Jett – 4:09.44
5. Magahey – 4:09.73
I think Hobson will be faster, and probably so will Sarkany.
1. Marchand 4:05.05
2. Hobson 4:06.57
3. Sarkany 4:07.74
That would be an awesome race to watch!
Noodling the splits => out in 46.2; then throws down 49.8’s x 4. => 4:05.4. So the 4:04 is even faster than this. Wow.
That is NUTS! I mean at Pac-12 his first 100 was a 46.3 and the next 100 was a 49.5, so I assume he will take it out faster than 46.2 for this race, which sounds ridiculous! But I think he is capable of it based on that his first 100 split from the 800 free relay last year was a 42.2
3:59.99 inbound
Would have been interesting to see how fast ian thorpe would have gone in this event. Probably not sub 4 minutes but I could see a :02 :03
The extra turns and shorter laps would not have helped Thorpe relative to the best short-course swimmers. He didn’t hold a streamline and gained a lot of momentum during each long course lap.
This is true. But his pure endurance would still probably get him to at least 4:03 or something like that.
He went 1:41.10 in the 200 free SCM as a 17 year old in his first competition back after breaking his ankle, a time that lasted until the supersuit era.
Would have been interesting to see how fast Ian Thorpe could have went in the 500 free. I dont think it would be sub 4, but maybe :02 :03
4:02.50 to match his 4im WR.. Wouldn’t that be something? I’m seeing a lot of 3:59 speculation. Probable but not implausible. In typical Leon fashion of taking it out and holding on, he’d have to be somewhere around 45.3/47.99/48.3/48.9/49.6