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M. NCAA Event Previews: Can Smith Recreate Magic in the 100 Breast?

2025 Men’s NCAA Swimming and Diving Championships

Men’s 100 Breaststroke: By the Numbers

The men’s 100 breaststroke has been a sort of enigma, and until the conference meets, there were a series of men at the top of the leaderboard who were all very close together. We do have a little more clarity now, as a few of the athletes separated themselves from the field with their conference meets

Even still, coming into the meet, the 2nd-9th place qualifiers are separated by just one second, and 4th-11th by less than four tenths. This race is going to be a dog fight, even if now we have a clear favorite for 1st.

Smith and His Conference Magic

One of the biggest stories out of the men’s SEC Championships last month was Florida senior Julian Smith and his breakout performance that earned him swimmer of the meet.

One of the most impressive swims of the meet came in the form of his 100 breaststroke, where he broke the NCAA record, swimming 49.51 in the event final. This time was two-hundredths faster than the previous record, which belonged to Liam Bell from Cal at 49.53.

The biggest question about Smith is whether he can repeat his performance. He went new personal bests in every event, seeing huge drops in all of them over the course of the season, but his 100 breast was perhaps his most significant drop, at just under a second-and-a-half faster than his preseason best of 50.94.

Smith’s Pre-Season Best Times vs Current Best Times

Event Pre-Season Best Current Best Improvement
100 Breast 50.94 49.51 -1.43
100 Free 41.98 41.34 -0.64
200 IM 1:41.87 1:39.38 -2.49

There are a few things to consider when asking if he will be able to repeat this performance, one of which is his previous performances at NCAAs. He did not qualify his freshman year in 2022, but in 2023 and 2024 he went faster in the 100 breast at the NCAAs than he did in the event at SECs. This is a good sign for us to see the same improvement this year.

The other factor is Florida’s typical performance at the meet. As a team, the Gators typically struggle to maintain their seed, dropping 69 points from their predicted seed last year, the worst of any team at the meet.

Regardless of any of these factors though, Smith is the NCAA record holder, and is coming into the meet more than four tenths ahead of the rest of the field.

Breaststroke U

Indiana is well-known for their ability to produce top breaststrokers, but last year, they only put two swimmers in the 100 breaststroke finals, one up and one down. This year they have come back with a vengeance, putting five athletes  in the 100 breast ‘A’ final at Big Tens last month. While they likely won’t put five swimmers in the ‘A’ final at NCAAs, their breaststroke depth cannot be ignored.

In the final, their five swimmers finished 1st-5th, led by senior Finn Brooks. Brooks swam a new Championship Record time of 49.94. This time currently ranks him 2nd in the country. Last year, Brooks finished 32nd in the event, after he added almost a second and a half in prelims to swim 52.75. Breaststroke is still a relatively new event for him, after he swam the 100 fly at his first two conference championship meets. Brooks will be swimming two events on the 2nd day of the meet, the 100 fly and the 100 breast.

Brooks was also the first Indiana 100 breaststroke champion at Big Tens since 2019 when Ian Finnerty won in 50.60. This was also the last year that Indiana won an NCAA title with Finnerty’s 49.85.

Brian Benzing was last year’s runner-up in the event, coming in at 50.59 for Towson University. This year, he is coming in as the 6th seed for this year’s Championships after finishing 2nd at the Big Ten Championships after choosing to take his 5th year at Indiana.

Joshua Matheny was IU’s third place finisher, touching in 50.94. Matheny was the only Indiana swimmer in the ‘A’ final at last year’s Championships, if you don’t count Benzing, where he finished 6th in 51.07. This year, he comes in as the 9th seed thanks to his personal best time at Big Tens.

Indiana picked up another big name transfer who could help them in the 100 breast field in former Texas swimmer Caspar Corbeau. Corbeau is more of a 200 specialist, but he has finished as high as 2nd at NCAAs, which he did back in 2022, when he set his personal best time of 50.49. At Big Tens he set a season best 50.97 to finish 4th and come into the meet seeded 10th overall.

Finally, the Hoosiers have two more swimmers seeded in the top 16. First is 5th year Jassen Yep who was their other finalist at last year’s meet, where he finished 12th overall in 51.52. He comes into the meet at the 13th seed with his 51.10 from his 5th place finish at Big Tens.

The other swimmer is senior Luke Barr, who sits in the 16th seed with the 51.17 he went at Indiana’s Last Chance Meet earlier this month. Barr did not swim the event at last year’s meet, opting instead for the 100 backstroke. He will be attempting a monster double at this year’s Nationals where he is entered in the 100 breaststroke and the 100 backstroke. The two events are back-to-back with no extra rest in between. The 100 breaststroke is first, however, so he won’t be tired from other races when he swims.

Indiana has plenty of depth in the event, and it’s safe to assume that at least some of these six athletes will find their ways into scoring positions in the event, likely ‘A’ finals spots.

Last Year’s Finalists

Six of last year’s eight ‘A’ finalists are back this year. We have already covered Benzing, Matheny, and Smith, but what about the rest?

Denis Petrashov from Louisville was the bronze medalist, touching just two-hundredths ahead of Noah Nichols, at 50.91. Petrashov has been faster than that time this season, but he is not the only one getting faster and he is currently seeded 5th in the event with his 50.62 from ACCs last month. He is coming off a 4th place finish at the SC World Championships back in December, where he dropped more than half-a-second. He’s only dropped about a tenth this season so far, so he could have another drop in him. Nichols, who was fourth, left Virginia at the semester, and is not swimming this year.

Carles Coll Marti

Carles Coll Marti finished 5th, just ahead of Matheny and Smith for Virginia Tech. Coll Marti’s season best time comes from the Virginia vs Virginia Tech meet at the beginning of February at 50.78, which was a new best time to rank him 7th this season. He had a difficult time in this event at the ACC Championships, where he finished 4th overall at 51.34. Last year, he swam faster at the ACCs than he did at NCAAs, touching in 50.95 to 51.06. He would only need to drop around two tenths to find himself in 4th place, but the athletes just behind him are going to be fighting for those ‘A’ final finishes.

Stanford’s eighth place finisher Ron Polonsky is the last ‘A’ finals swimmer who is back for this year’s championships, but he has some places to jump if he wants to earn another ‘A’ finals qualification. He is coming into this year’s race seeded 11th overall with the 50.99 he swam at the ACCs. His best time in the event still stands from his prelims race at last year’s Championships, where he went 50.87. That time would place him tied for 8th this season with Cal’s Yamato Okadome.

Only two of the ‘B’ finalists last year are still competing this season, Aleksas Savickas and Jassen Yep. Savickas from Florida won the final in 51.06 after he just missed the ‘A’ final with his prelims time of 51.35. He also missed the ‘A’ final his freshman year, when he finished 13th in the event in 51.44.

This year Savickas is seeded 14th in 51.15, just a tenth behind his time from NCAAs last year. His best recorded time in the event is 50.73 from the 2023 SEC Championships, though he has not been back under 51 seconds since that swim. With the depth of the field, even a 50.7 could struggle to make the top final. If Savickas wants a chance of that elusive ‘A’ final swim, he is not only going to need to drop, but he’s going to need to perform in the prelims of the event to keep up with the increased speed from the rest of the event.

The Newcomers

On top of all the talent returning from last year, there is a hoard of newcomers who are seeded  to earn finals positions or challenge for the title.

The 3rd seed in the event is Texas sophomore Nate Germonprez. He has been a bit of a shock in the breaststroke events this year, bringing them into his lineup as a sophomore after not swimming any breaststroke at last year’s NCAAs or last year’s Olympic Trials. In November he shocked the world of swimming when he swam 50.39 in the morning prelims of the Texas Hall of Fame Invitational, breaking Caspar Corbeau’s team record in the event. He only got faster at the SEC Championships, where he went 51.14 to finish 2nd to the NCAA record. He could easily find himself as the next swimmer to break the 50 second barrier in the event if he has strong swims at this year’s meet.

Texas also has the 12th seed in Will Scholtz at 51.03. Scholtz did not qualify for last year’s Championships after he swam a personal best time of 52.09 at Big 12s

Jack Kelly, a senior at Brown, has also had an incredible season, dropping almost a second in his 100 breaststroke to go from 51.58 to 50.60 at the Ivy League Championships. Kelly has seen a drop every year he has competed for the bears, dropping about half-a-second each time after coming into college at 53.34. Last year, he finished 18th in the prelims of the event, so he is looking to significantly improve that finish this year.

Cal’s Yamato Okadome is the only freshman seeded in the top 16. Okadome has been huge for Cal this year, filling the large shoes left by Liam Bell after his graduation, a job which he has been handling very well. He is coming into the meet as the 8th seed in the event thanks to the 50.87 he went at the Minnesota Invite in November. He added a bit at ACCs when he went 51.12 in the final to finish 3rd overall. Cal historically underperforms at their conference meet to save their best times for finals, so if he follows the typical Cal format, we could be looking at a significant drop in the event, and a comfortable ‘A’ final.

SwimSwam’s Picks

After the first three finishers, the rest of the event is practically a wash. It is very difficult to predict exact placement based on their in season and personal best times due to how close they are. The 4th-11th place seeds are separated by less than three tenths on the psych sheet, but we did our best to predict outcome based on previous and current season performances.

Place Athlete School Season Best Lifetime Best
1 Julian Smith Florida 49.51 49.51
2 Finn Brooks Indiana 49.94 49.94
3 Nate Germonprez Texas 50.14 50.14
4 Brian Benzing Indiana 50.73 50.59
5 Yamato Okadome Cal 50.87 50.87
6 Caspar Corbeau Indiana 50.97 50.49
7 Jack Kelly Brown 50.60 50.60
8 Denis Petrashov Louisville 50.62 50.62

Dark Horse: Matt Fallon, Penn

Matt Fallon is a 200 breaststroke specialist, but he has always struggled in the 100. Last year, he finished 19th in the event at 51.92, failing to even make the final. His best time in the event sits at 51.45 in the event from December of 2021. This season, he has been 51.56, which he went at the Ivy League Championships. If Fallon finds some front end speed and is able to create the same kind of speed he has in his 200, he could easily appear in the ‘A’ final.

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Swamer ‘84
9 days ago

SwimSwam, I’ll give you credit here. This may be Cal’s weakest (relatively of course) event, so this is a solid prediciton. The freshman sensation Okadome is a sure bet for the A final!

MediocreSwimmer99
9 days ago

I had ChatGPT estimate what Adam Peaty could’ve theoretically gone in this race at his absolute peak (56.8 form)…

“A reasonable, conservative projection for Adam Peaty in the 100-yard breaststroke at his absolute peak would be around:

46.5 to 47.2 seconds

If he optimized his turns and starts for yards and trained in SCY (which he doesn’t), 46-mid is likely.”

LOL. I think he would’ve been 48.7-48.9 MAYBE.

Dylan
Reply to  MediocreSwimmer99
9 days ago

bro really wasted energy to create this 🥀 🥀

MediocreSwimmer99
Reply to  Dylan
9 days ago

All I have is time, Dylan.

Diggerido
Reply to  MediocreSwimmer99
9 days ago

Your forgetting that Peaty had notoriously bad turns and pullouts which are essentially in SCY

MigBike
Reply to  MediocreSwimmer99
9 days ago

ChatGPT estimates Smith will go between 48.45 – 49.48 100 breast at NCAAs

none
9 days ago

👊🇺🇸🔥

KSW
Reply to  none
9 days ago

Zippo disciple

ihatesmu
9 days ago

Unrelated, but I asked Claude (AI) to use its new web search feature to read all of these “2025 M NCAA Preview” articles on SwimSwam. I then gave it the rules from the Pick ‘Em article and told it to make picks for me. Here is what it said. Pretty comical results:

# Individual Events Predictions

## 500 Freestyle
1. Rex Maurer (Texas)
2. David Johnston (Texas)
3. Tomas Koski (Georgia)
4. Jake Magahey (Georgia)

## 200 Freestyle
1. Luke Hobson (Texas)
2. Carson Carrozza (Texas)
3. Gabriel Jett (Cal)
4. Rafael Miroslaw (Indiana)

## 50 Freestyle
1. Jordan Crooks (Tennessee)
2. Josh Liendo (Florida)
3. Chris Guiliano (Texas)… Read more »

barelyaswammer
Reply to  ihatesmu
9 days ago

I don’t know what I would be more surprised by: A silver from Carson Carrozza in the 200 free or a bronze from Ahmed Hafnaoui in the mile

Jkoles
Reply to  barelyaswammer
9 days ago

Matt King winning the 100 breast would throw my brain in a blender

I miss the ISL (Go dawgs)
Reply to  ihatesmu
9 days ago

I asked chatgpt to do this and it got really confused and told me Jake Magahey would be runner up in the 200 breast.

barelyaswammer
Reply to  I miss the ISL (Go dawgs)
9 days ago

At least it picked a solid IMer. Don’t think he’s got a 1:49 in him, though 😂

MigBike
Reply to  I miss the ISL (Go dawgs)
9 days ago

My slide rule estimates Crooks could win the 500 Fr in 3:58.76

Andrew
9 days ago

Benzing ahead of Germonprez, I think Brooks adds and i’ll even take Benzing over him here. Petrashov is finishing higher, Jack Kelley misses final and adds (like every year at NCs), and hard to see matheny out of A final unless he does a one hand touch again

(G)olden Bear
Reply to  Andrew
9 days ago

Andrew: Frequently in error, never in doubt.

Walsh-Madden-Grimes-Weinstein
Reply to  (G)olden Bear
9 days ago

I’ll take the Texas downgrade.

PFA
9 days ago

3-4 guys have the potential to break 50 in this final and I’d say possibly more than 1 could be under the record set at SEC’s.

Also disclaimer there is a chance for severe weather including tornadoes in Seattle so first and foremost for the teams to be aware of that and also for everyone else to be prepared if there is a tornado warning during tonight’s event to potentially get delayed.

MigBike
Reply to  PFA
9 days ago

Neither tornadoes, storms, tsunamis or fire alarms can interfere with the fastest meet in the world.

Sparkle
Reply to  PFA
9 days ago

Somebody get Glen Powell to Seattle STAT

I miss the ISL (Go dawgs)
Reply to  PFA
9 days ago

Tornadoes in the PNW? Is that normal? I thought it was usually just drizzle. (I’m from the South and have never been even close to Seattle)

farber
Reply to  I miss the ISL (Go dawgs)
9 days ago

It’s not normal. It’s probably not tornados more like heavy rain/hail and strong winds

Last edited 9 days ago by farber
PFA
Reply to  farber
9 days ago

there’s a 5% risk in the area for tor’s within a 25 mile radius of any given location in the risk area does not mean there will be any but i am inclined to believe there might be a cell that goes right near federal way later.

NoFastTwitch
Reply to  PFA
9 days ago

Or if the kid pulls the fire alarm again

YeeHaw
Reply to  PFA
9 days ago

The thunder you hear will be the waves crashing in Weyherhauser.