“It’s harder to make the US Olympic Team than to medal at the Olympics.”
“There are six swimmers in this final (at Trials) who could medal at the Olympics.”
For anybody who spends enough time around American swimming people of a certain vintage, these sort of statements are thrown around pretty commonly. Likely born out of the decision at the 1984 Olympic Games to begin limiting countries to two swimmers per event, I’ve always had the sense that this felt more like pride and patriotism than reality.
The most objective way to read those statements is the implication that the bronze medalist from the Olympic Games would place 4th-or-worse at the US Olympic Trials. Ignoring any bloviating about who would have gone faster at the Olympics if they had the chance (I bet everyone who stays home wishes they had tapered a little harder for Trials, if they saved something for the Games), this is a measurable thing.
I pored over the data back to the 2008 Olympic Games, and there was only one instance in the last four Olympic Games where the bronze medalist at the Olympic Games would have placed lower than 3rd at the US Olympic Trials, and interestingly it happened in Tokyo.
There, Japan’s Yui Ohashi won in 4:32.08, USA’s Emma Weyant was silver in 4:32.76, and USA’s Hali Flickinger was bronze in 4:34.90. Flickinger’s time at the Olympic Games would have placed her 5th at the US Olympic Trials.
Besides her own time (4:33.96) and Weyant’s (4:33.81), two other swimmers were faster: Melanie Margalis (4:34.08) and Leah Smith (4:34.55). So ironically in this one edge case, where we can objectively say that the above statements are true, she was faster at Trials than at the Olympics.
In fact, in that time period, there were only 17 other occasions where bronze at the Olympic Games would have been any lower than top two at the US Olympic Trials.
Of course we all know that the U.S. is the deepest swimming nation on earth. No other country’s Trials would hold up even this well against the results at the Olympic Games.
This is just one way of parsing these claims, and the only other objective data-driven way I could think of was doing something with best times – but even that didn’t really feel right, because it ignores what the Olympic Trials and Olympic Games are: pressure cookers.
So by at least this measure, claims that it’s harder to make the US team than it is to medal at the Olympics seems to at best be stuck in the past and at worst disrespect the quality of swimming when the world comes together.
US Data is Below
2021 Trials
| Event | Swimmer | Bronze Medal Time | Place at 2021 US Olympic Trials |
|---|---|---|---|
| Men’s 50m Freestyle | Bruno Fratus | 21.57 | 3rd |
| Men’s 100m Freestyle | Kliment Kolesnikov | 47.44 | 2nd |
| Men’s 200m Freestyle | Fernando Scheffer | 1:44.66 | 1st |
| Men’s 400m Freestyle | Kieran Smith | 3:43.94 | 1st |
| Men’s 800m Freestyle | Mykhailo Romanchuk | 7:42.33 | 1st |
| Men’s 1500m Freestyle | Florian Wellbrock | 14:40.91 | 1st |
| Men’s 100m Backstroke | Ryan Murphy | 52.19 | 1st |
| Men’s 200m Backstroke | Luke Greenbank | 1:54.72 | 2nd |
| Men’s 100m Breaststroke | Nicolo Martinenghi | 58.33 | 1st |
| Men’s 200m Breaststroke | Matti Mattson | 2:07.13 | 1st |
| Men’s 100m Butterfly | Noe Ponti | 50.74 | 2nd |
| Men’s 200m Butterfly | Federico Burdisso | 1:54.45 | 1st |
| Men’s 200m IM | Jeremy Desplanches | 1:56.17 | 2nd |
| Men’s 400m IM | Brendon Smith | 4:10.38 | 3rd |
| Women’s 50m Freestyle | Pernille Blume | 24.21 | 1st |
| Women’s 100m Freestyle | Cate Campbell | 52.52 | 1st |
| Women’s 200m Freestyle | Penny Oleksiak | 1:54.70 | 1st |
| Women’s 400m Freestyle | Li Bingjie | 4:01.08 | 1st |
| Women’s 800m Freestyle | Simona Quadarella | 8:18.35 | 2nd |
| Women’s 1500m Freestyle | Sarah Kohler | 15:42.91 | 2nd |
| Women’s 100m Backstroke | Regan Smith | 58.05 | 1st |
| Women’s 200m Backstroke | Emily Seebohm | 2:06.17 | 2nd |
| Women’s 100m Breaststroke | Lilly King | 1:05.54 | 3rd |
| Women’s 200m Breaststroke | Annie Lazor | 2:20.84 | 1st |
| Women’s 100m Butterfly | Emma McKeon | 55.72 | 2nd |
| Women’s 200m Butterfly | Hali Flickinger | 2:05.65 | 1st |
| Women’s 200m IM | Kate Douglass | 2:09.04 | 1st |
| Women’s 400m IM | Hali Flickinger | 4:34.90 | 5th |
2016 Trials
| Event | Swimmer | Bronze Medal Time | Place at 2016 US Olympic Trials |
|---|---|---|---|
| Men’s 50m Freestyle | Nathan Adrian | 21.49 | 1st |
| Men’s 100m Freestyle | Nathan Adrian | 47.85 | 2nd |
| Men’s 200m Freestyle | Conor Dwyer | 1:45.23 | 1st |
| Men’s 400m Freestyle | Gabriele Detti | 3:43.49 | 1st |
| Men’s 1500m Freestyle | Gabriele Detti | 14:40.86 | 1st |
| Men’s 100m Backstroke | David Plummer | 52.40 | 3rd |
| Men’s 200m Backstroke | Evgeny Rylov | 1:53.97 | 2nd |
| Men’s 100m Breaststroke | Cody Miller | 58.87 | 1st |
| Men’s 200m Breaststroke | Anton Chupkov | 2:07.70 | 2nd |
| Men’s 100m Butterfly | Laszlo Cseh | 51.14 (tie for silver) | 2nd |
| Men’s 200m Butterfly | Tamas Kenderesi | 1:53.62 | 1st |
| Men’s 200m IM | Wang Shun | 1:57.05 | 3rd |
| Men’s 400m IM | Daiya Seto | 4:09.71 | 2nd |
| Women’s 50m Freestyle | Cate Campbell | 24.11 | 1st |
| Women’s 100m Freestyle | Sarah Sjostrom | 52.99 | 1st |
| Women’s 200m Freestyle | Emma McKeon | 1:54.92 | 2nd |
| Women’s 400m Freestyle | Leah Smith | 4:01.92 | 3rd |
| Women’s 800m Freestyle | Boglarka Kapas | 8:16.37 | 2nd |
| Women’s 100m Backstroke | Kylie Masse | 58.76 | 1st |
| Women’s 200m Backstroke | Hilary Caldwell | 2:07.54 | 2nd |
| Women’s 100m Breaststroke | Katie Meili | 1:05.69 | 2nd |
| Women’s 200m Breaststroke | Shi Jinglin | 2:22.28 | 1st |
| Women’s 100m Butterfly | Dana Vollmer | 56.63 | 2nd |
| Women’s 200m Butterfly | Natsumi Hoshi | 2:05.20 | 1st |
| Women’s 200m IM | Maya Dirado | 2:08.79 | 1st |
| Women’s 400m IM | Mireia Belmonte | 4:32.39 | 1st |
2012 Trials
| Event | Swimmer | Bronze Medal Time | Place at 2012 US Olympic Trials |
|---|---|---|---|
| Men’s 50m Freestyle | Cesar Cielo | 21.59 | 1st (tie) |
| Men’s 100m Freestyle | Brent Hayden | 47.80 | 1st |
| Men’s 200m Freestyle | Sun Yang | 1:44.93 | 1st |
| Men’s 400m Freestyle | Peter Vanderkaay | 3:44.69 | 1st |
| Men’s 1500m Freestyle | Oussama Mellouli | 14:40.31 | 1st |
| Men’s 100m Backstroke | Ryosuke Irie | 52.97 | 3rd |
| Men’s 200m Backstroke | Ryan Lochte | 1:53.94 | 1st |
| Men’s 100m Breaststroke | Brendan Hansen | 59.49 | 1st |
| Men’s 200m Breaststroke | Ryo Tateishi | 2:08.29 | 1st |
| Men’s 100m Butterfly | Chad le Clos | 51.44 | 3rd |
| Men’s 200m Butterfly | Takeshi Matsuda | 1:53.21 | 1st |
| Men’s 200m IM | Laszlo Cseh | 1:56.22 | 3rd |
| Men’s 400m IM | Kosuke Hagino | 4:08.94 | 3rd |
| Women’s 50m Freestyle | Marleen Veldhuis | 24.39 | 1st |
| Women’s 100m Freestyle | Tang Yi | 53.44 | 1st |
| Women’s 200m Freestyle | Bronte Barratt | 1:55.81 | 2nd |
| Women’s 400m Freestyle | Camille Muffat | 4:03.01 | 2nd |
| Women’s 800m Freestyle | Rebecca Adlington | 8:20.32 | 2nd |
| Women’s 100m Backstroke | Aya Terakawa | 58.83 | 1st |
| Women’s 200m Backstroke | Elizabeth Beisel | 2:06.55 | 2nd |
| Women’s 100m Breaststroke | Satomi Suzuki | 1:06.46 | 3rd |
| Women’s 200m Breaststroke | Iuliia Efimova | 2:20.92 | 1st |
| Women’s 100m Butterfly | Alicia Coutts | 56.94 | 2nd |
| Women’s 200m Butterfly | Natsumi Hoshi | 2:05.48 | 1st |
| Women’s 200m IM | Caitlin Leverenz | 2:08.95 | 1st |
| Women’s 400m IM | Ye Shiwen | 4:32.91 | 2nd |
2008 Trials
| Event | Swimmer | Bronze Medal Time | Place at 2008 US Olympic Trials |
|---|---|---|---|
| Men’s 50m Freestyle | Alain Bernard | 21.49 | 2nd |
| Men’s 100m Freestyle | Jason Lezak | 47.67 | 1st |
| Men’s 200m Freestyle | Peter Vanderkaay | 1:45.14 | 2nd |
| Men’s 400m Freestyle | Larsen Jensen | 3:42.78 | 1st |
| Men’s 1500m Freestyle | Ryan Cochrane | 14:42.69 | 1st |
| Men’s 100m Backstroke | Arkady Vyatchanin | 53.18 | 2nd |
| Men’s 200m Backstroke | Arkady Vyatchanin | 1:54.93 | 3rd |
| Men’s 100m Breaststroke | Hugues Duboscq | 59.37 | 1st |
| Men’s 200m Breaststroke | Hugues Duboscq | 2:08.94 | 1st |
| Men’s 100m Butterfly | Andrew Lauterstein | 51.12 | 2nd |
| Men’s 200m Butterfly | Takeshi Matsuda | 1:52.97 | 2nd |
| Men’s 200m IM | Ryan Lochte | 1:56.53 | 3rd |
| Men’s 400m IM | Ryan Lochte | 4:08.09 | 3rd |
| Women’s 50m Freestyle | Cate Campbell | 24.17 | 1st |
| Women’s 100m Freestyle | Natalie Coughlin | 53.39 | 1st |
| Women’s 200m Freestyle | Pang Jiaying | 1:55.05 | 1st |
| Women’s 400m Freestyle | Joanne Jackson | 4:03.52 | 2nd |
| Women’s 800m Freestyle | Lotte Friis | 8:23.03 | 2nd |
| Women’s 100m Backstroke | Margaret Hoelzer | 59.34 | 3rd |
| Women’s 200m Backstroke | Reiko Nakamura | 2:07.13 | 3rd |
| Women’s 100m Breaststroke | Mirna Jukic | 1:07.34 | 2nd |
| Women’s 200m Breaststroke | Sara Nordenstam | 2:23.02 | 2nd |
| Women’s 100m Butterfly | Jessicah Schipper | 57.25 | 1st |
| Women’s 200m Butterfly | Jessicah Schipper | 2:06.26 | 1st |
| Women’s 200m IM | Natalie Coughlin | 2:10.34 | 3rd |
| Women’s 400m IM | Katie Hoff | 4:31.71 | 2nd |
My assumption has always been that saying came from the 70s and 80s when it might have been true some of the time. 1976 particularly. But even by the early 90s, I don’t think it was true and certainly it’s not true now as shown the simple fact that not all Americans swimmers medal. If 3rd at the Olympics was “easier” than 2d for the US, every single US swimmer would medal in every individual event. And that doesn’t happen of course.
CURIOUSLY, I’ve always formulated this ‘question’ a bit differently. Here goes:
“The two swimmers from US Trials have a better chance than the entries of any other nation simply because the
U.S. Trials are the toughest to place 1st or 2nd in – ergo, your likelihood of getting a medal out of U.S. Trials
competitors is much higher than any other country’s Olympic top two.”
Michael Phelps notwithstanding, parity came to swimming long before 2008. One would have to go back to the era when the rule was changed to see if the rule change was justified. I suspect your results would be different than evaluating recent history.
Wow 4 IM got way slower
Top 2 at trials makes the team. Top 3 at Olympics medals. 2<3, therefore it's harder to make the team than it is to medal. So really, every country's trial is harder!
I think the first comment at least when a swimmer makes it Not a commentator doesn’t mean it is literally faster to make the US team but harder as it is more intense, more on the line, more pressure.
The pressure to make the team is greater than the pressure to medal. For many US athletes this is probably true. Once you have made the team you will always be an Olympian.
So I love the stats because it proves what we all objectively know which is the Olympics are obviously faster.
As for us old timers we do remember a time when this was literally true. 3rd American was a potential medalist. See 1976 for stats.… Read more »
Thank you for putting this together! Could you continue the exercise and go back to 1984? Would love to see the more comprehensive view. 🙏🏻
Of course they’re gonna keep saying it. Just like Americans will keep claiming swimming is the most popular sport in Australia.
It’s not? Lol I am an American
Only one saying it, is Rowdy. And he sounds stupid each time
We now fake news are very popular in the US.
Well it’s probably more popular than in the US
Swimming Australia’s press release about attendance called it the most popular participation sport in Australia. Is Swimming Australia now “America”?
“The success of the Trials reflects the popularity of Australia’s highest participation sport, with 5.9 million participants annually, and comes as Swimming Australia launches Pool for Purpose through the SwimAus Foundation.”
Swimming Australia uses the term “participation sport” to capture every instance of someone getting in water. This includes literal babies having their first swim survival lesson, people that go for a dip at the beach and 85 year olds doing aqua classes. Of that 5.9 million, 597,000 participants are disabled. We don’t have 6 million people swimming 6 days a week and ready to jump into Olympic trials.
If you wanted to use a similar comparison to USA, about 50 million “participate”, or around double the entire population of Australia.
Americans on here, including you, constantly insist swimming is Australia’s “national sport” to downplay our achievements. My comment was removed when I criticised the article stating that swimming in Australia… Read more »