Despite looking incredibly easy in the 200 back prelims, Matt Grevers has scratched the 200 backstroke semi-final*. He was the 3rd seed in the morning heats in 1:58.90, about a second-and-a-half behind the defending World Champion Ryan Lochte.
The scenario really made this a difficult decision. In this evening’s session, he also has the 100 free final. If he does make top two in this 200 backstroke, he’s a big-time medal candidate. But if he’s on the 400 free relay, he’s a big time medal candidate there as well. The deal-breaker seems to be that making top two in the 200 backstroke would’ve required him to be one of the best 4 in the world, whereas the 100 free didn’t at all.
Grevers already has an Olympic spot on his docket with a win in the 100 back in a 52.0.
That moves Stanford All-American 200 backstroker Matt Thompson (2:01.79) into the final.
200 back semi-final start lists available here.
*We’re pretty sure he means it this time, based on the released start sheets.
I called this one. We are in BIG trouble in that 4×100 free relay in London. The three Russians would have went 2,3,4 at the UNITED STATES trials meet.
So… now all the guys who said 47.5 for Adrian.. 47 high for one other.. 48 low flat for the others can come back to earth? This relay if it gets bronze will be good enough..
Rafael,
Thiat was how I got into HUGE argument with Mel Stewart and others who claimed that the US sprinters would go 47.4-47.5, etc (and Phelps goes 47.5) in Omaha.
And I will repeat again, many don’t realize that what Magnussen has done is not only get back the 100 free WR to its line, but he actually revolutionized the men 100 free, ridiculous as it might sound.
Going under 48 is STILL VERY VERY DIFFICULT thing to do.
Only Sub 48 guys Textile
Magnussen
Roberts
Cielo
Pieter Van Den Hoogeband
Brent Hayden
Maybe Agnel can join them on London
100 free is given for magnussen.. But I Think Robert and Cielo are now the “main favorites” for Silver/Bronze (won´t think of an order).. with Hayden and Agnel as the real Darkhorses..
Rafael, based on this final, it will be even quite a battle for USA to win bronze as Russia (and even Brazil) has a chance now.
Alright I’ll give it to you. I was really banking on some great(if not, atleast good) times from the 100 free final. So after seeing those times. I’ll stick with this…
Phelps- 47.9-48.2
Grevers- 47.9-48.00
Jones- 47.85-48.0
Adrian-47.4
Now before you jump the gun let me explain….Phelps WILL be there for London, whether you want to believe it or not, he shows up when he needs too, and for this relay he will. I understand the 400IM is before this, so that’s why my time is alittle wide for him. I believe what Grevers said, he seems like he’ll be a great relay guy so a good time drop there. Cullen Jones has been there before and… Read more »
Also Feigens prelim time is faster than Grevers final time so I’m not sure how they’re going to choose that. If I were them I’d keep phelps off and throw Feigen on for prelims. That will give Feigen a chance to beat out one of those guys and show he’s ready.
Who do you think they’re putting on this relay?
I’m still a little skeptical about Jones. Yes he swam well last night compared to where he has been lately.. but I’m not sure how much better he can get
I just LOVED the NBC interview just now with Missy.
She’s just such a well-balanced, positive girl with great attitude and such maturity for a teenage girl.
I am rooting for her to win 4 individual golds in London!
(unlikely, but still…)
and Missy should go to BERKELEY!
After the semis at the Aussie trials, the AUS relay sat at this:
Magnussen- 47.9
Roberts- 48.6
Targett- 48.5
Sullivan- 48.8
3:13.8
USA after semis with phelps as a 48.0:
Phelps- 48.0
Adrian- 48.3
Feigen- 48.4
Grevers- 48.7
3:13.4
Even if you don’t agree with me putting phelps at 48.0 if you take his 48.4 from in season we’re tied with the Aussies at 3:13.8. I don’t think we should be worried about winning this relay.
So, winning 4×100 FR gold is based on semis time, and Phelps’ PB?
never knew about this before.
Australia? Let’s focus on beating Russia for now. The three 48.2 flat start Russians would have been 2,3,4 at OUR trials meet!
i have been one of the most vocal in my opinion of this relay for the last few months. Nothing ive seento this point has convinced me that the US is ready to put together a relay going sub310 even under best case scenario. In fact a time between 310.5 – 311.0 is far more likely.
A lot of people talk of phelps and his 47.5. Remember that this is a time achieved when he was also 142.9 in the 200… I bet if the textile record was still 47.84 that no one would dare even penciling in 47.6 as a prediction except for perhaps the prospective olympic champion. That said this time is still a holy grail in this… Read more »
Ok Dutchwomen I see what your saying, but I don’t know if I’m completely on board. I know the Aussies and the French are going to be fast, nobody is doubting that. But look at our 2011 relay that got third and tell me that’s the same relay we take to London? Phelps leads off in 47.75, Then I think Grevers will be on the relay with a great split of 47.4-47.7 then I think our third leg whoever it is goes a 48.0 and Adrian splits a 47.1. Our relay always has great relay swimmers and I honestly think we will battle the Aussies. My biggest fear is Magnussen anchors the relay. If he does, we might see the… Read more »
Magnussen will be opening for WR.
Phelps and Adrian stay the same. As of right now, insert Feigen and Grevers to replace Weber-gale and Lezak.
Let us say we go your exact splits –
Phelps – 47.7
Feigen – 48.0
Grevers – 47.5
Adrian – 47.1
3:10.3
The Aussies counter with, assuming no one drops time between now and London –
Magnussen – 47.10
Roberts – 47.10 (assuming a very conservative .5 better from flat start)
Target – 47.8 (WC 2011)
Sullivan – 47.7 (WC 2011)
3:09.70
Now remember that your times include hypothetical swims that three on our relay haven’t done yet post tech suit, and the Aussie times have already been… Read more »
By the way I love the Scottish announcer. When is NBC going to hire him?
I agree completely with the announcer! Fresh and enjoying. Back to the relay quickly though. Watching one of Grevers interviews he stated he was a lot better on a relay than individual swims. He gave himself within a second difference. Which if he goes a 48.3(which I think is very possible) lets say he gets off his relay reaction very quickly. That gives him a great start to begin with and then add the pressure of the relay and times drop before you know it. I can give you personal experience, I’m a pure relay swimmer. My 100 difference from flat to relay is always around .7-.9 difference. All I’m saying is it’s possible. Lastly I agree that Feigen gets… Read more »
Oh and yes i agree. Even with those times Aussies have the lead still. But all we need is a race…if were there, I think we pull it off. We WILL be the underdogs in this relay…and that’s when we sneak in.
Allstar9,
Where did you get this Phelps opeining in 47.75?
remember that in London Phelps will have had 400 IM the previous night.
With the semi-final times of the 100 free, we need to feel a sense of urgency going into tonight’s finals.
Phelps – 48.0
Adrian – 48.3
Fiegen – 48.4
Grevers – 48.7
That relay isn’t going to beat anyone in London, not the French, Aussies, or even RSA/Russia.
Also, where/how do you see Phelps leading off in 47.5? He was 48.0 at World Champs and I see him going right around 47.8 / 48.0 again. Remember his best time in a tech suit was 47.5 in 2008 – I don’t see him repeating that again in London in a jammer.
On paper –
Australia –
Magnussen – 47.1
Roberts –… Read more »
Dutchwomen.. the RSA is actually slower than brazil now.. Brazil has 47,8 and 3 48,7.. If US does not improve tonight even brazil would be a threat
praying for that. Bronze for us would be a dream come true.
And France has Meynard and Stravius times from 2011… so they are actually faster than the Russians
that’s a good comment. thank you for the analysis. I wish Brazil had someone other than Cielo
The best RELAYER(Ok, i created that word..hahah) in Brazil team is Nicolas Oliveira.He is the only guy who can put a time 1.6s faster than his individual time.Of course, Cielo is the best overall, but his normal improving in relay is around 0.5-0.7seconds.For me, Cielo must always open relay,because he has the best start of the block, but some coaches like to put him in second leg.The question is: how good will be Chieriguini,De Lucca and Dos Santos???Will be Oliveira at his best?Fratus is too much focused in 50 free?
I wish Fratus could do better. He should be up there with Cielo.
Chiereguinni can be a Great Opener… he had a PB of 22.8 on 50 free before maria Lenk and went 22.07 on the opening of the 4×50 relay..
Good analysis/matchup, I do also name AUS the big favourites. The argument that they’ll have had another training cycle at the Olympics isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Youngsters like Magnussen and Roberts (both still aged 21) can improve a lot in a couple of months time. Especially Maggie. I won’t see him settle for anything less than a WR if he’s starting first. Plus the Aussie 4×100 Free have had months for preparing the relays. (And don’t think they haven’t…)
Aussies will be tough even if the US is “on” and the Aussies are “off.”. Mags and Roberts will go 47 mids at the slowest, and the US will have 47 mids at the absolute fastest. Sullivan and Targett are as good or better than Phelps, so Jimmy or Grevers or whoever is on it will have to be exceptional at or around 47 mid to high.
Be careful with Sullivan, I wouldn’t bank on him being extremely fast come London, just what I think. Yes your right though, the USA will have to be above the top of their game to beat not only the Aussies but the French as well.
the russias are also capable of upseting the US
Why is everyone forgetting McEvoy?
Even if one of the australians not performing, Mcevoy will replace as fast.
Mcevoy just tweeted that his time trials results were his fastest ever.