Men’s 1500 Meter Freestyle – US Nationals Preview
- Day 1 – Wednesday, August 6th
- Defending National Champion: Connor Jaeger (14:53.34)
- Defending US Open Champion: Zane Grothe (15:13.39)
- Time to make the 2013 US National Team (#6 Nationally): 15:13.41 – Arthur Frayler
In the past year, only three distance swimmers have broken 15 minutes in the 1500 meter freestyle: Connor Jaeger, Michael McBroom, and Sean Ryan. This trio had good performances last summer, earning the opportunity to represent our country internationally. At the US National Championships / FINA World Championship Trials meet, Connor Jaeger and Michael McBroom finished first and second, booking their tickets to Barcelona. Sean Ryan finished third at the meet, but he already on the roster for the 2013 World University Games in Kazaan, Russia.
We know these three can handle the pressure of an international qualifying meet, but the question is still, who will be the top two? Although Jaeger and McBroom have been on top, Ryan has not backed off and is still trying to earn his spot. At the 2014 Santa Clara Grand Prix, all three of these guys raced this event. Jaeger won with a time of 15:00.97, and he posted that time from the morning session. During the timed final that evening, McBroom and Ryan finished first and second at 15:04.41 and 15:07.82, respectively. It is interesting to look at where these swimmers were a year ago in comparison to where they are now. None of these swimmers competed in the 2013 Santa Clara Grand Prix, but they are all very close to their times from the World Championships Trials in Indianapolis last June.
Connor Jaeger was the furthest away from his World Championship Trials time of 14:53.34; 7.63 seconds to be exact. McBroom had the second fastest time last year at trials with a 14:59.12, he was 5.29 seconds off. Sean Ryan is the closest to his time from last June at this year’s Santa Clara Grand Prix. He is only 3.22 seconds off of last summers time from trials.
My gut is telling me that this race is McBroom’s to win the year and that Jaeger should be right with him. Jaeger has been consistent, but McBroom is still proving his talent. McBroom surprised everyone last summer at the World Championships with an American Record breaking performance in the men’s 800 freestyle and I believe he is going to do the same thing again in Irvine.
Sean Ryan, however, has had a great year, is just off his time from a year ago, and now has the most to gain this summer (of this trio) after missing the World Championship roster a year ago. This meet may very well provide the motivation he needs to sneak into the top two in Irvine. He also has the advantage of training with Connor Jaeger everyday, so we know he knows what it takes to get to the top.
Further down the rankings, some names to watch include Arthur Frayler from the University of Florida. He was a bit stagnant in his first season in the Swamp, but as a sophomore in 2014 had a big breakthrough, going 14:38 in yards – a 9 second improvement on his lifetime best. Florida swimmers usually do very well in long course, so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he lept up and took a spot on the Pan Pacs team from Ryan.
We also really like the way that Jordan Wilimovsky is swimming in open water, and think he’ll be good enough to get into the top 8. A higher finish is certainly plausible, but he’s already on the Pan Pacs team in open water. His placing will rely heavily on whether or not he decides to taper for pool nationals or focus on open water. We think he’ll maybe fall somewhere in between a full taper and a full training meet, so that’s why we’ve left him out of the final. Andrew Gemmell, the other open water rep, has shown the ability to do well in both races in the same season, and is a better pool swimmer to begin with, so he got into our top 8.
Kevin Litherland is the sleeper here. He was a 15:37 at Junior Nationals last year, and has already been 15:33 this year. Yes, it’s going to take a substantial drop for him to get into the top 8 (at least 15 seconds), but he seems ready for a big ‘pop’ in the distance freestyle events.
My Picks:
- Michael McBroom (Longhorn Aquatics)
- Connor Jaeger (Club Wolverine/Michigan)
- Sean Ryan (Club Wolverine/Michigan)
- Arthur Frayler (Florida)
- Michael Klueh (Club Wolverine)
- David Heron (Tennessee)
- Andrew Gemmell
- Kevin Litherland (Dynamo Swim Club)
Note: Athletes are listed under the college/club that, to the best of our knowledge, they’re currently training with.
Michael McBroom represents The Woodlands Swim Team.
Michael – as we said beneath the selections, we listed based on where the athletes trained. We believe that it is more informational to list where an athlete is training in the leadup to the meet, and frankly wish USA Swimming would put in rules to eliminate the “train with one team, represent another” practice.
Braden,
OK. The note at the end of the story is incomplete.
“Note: Athletes are listed under the college/club that, to the best of our knowledge, they’re”
They are what?
Now that you have explained your incomplete though, I get it.
Oh odd, sorry. When it was published the full note was there, not sure what happened. Should be corrected now.
Sean Ryan has already qualified for Pan Pacs in the open water event, so doesn’t still have to earn his spot on the team. Open water swimmers are also allowed to swim other events they didn’t qualify for at pool trials. I recall from 2010 that a lot of open water swimmers swam the 1500 as well (it’s no real surprise that they didn’t opt for, say, the 100 breastroke).
So that leads to a question. Suppose an open water swimmer skips out of nationals, or performs poorly, then does a stupendous swim in the 1500 at Pan Pacs. Could that swimmer make the worlds team in that event, displacing a pool-only swimmer?
And is the selection procedure similar for… Read more »
My prediction
1. McBroom 14:47
2. Jaeger 14:49
3. Gemmell 14:55
4. Ryan
5. Frayler
6. Kleuh
7. Feeley
8. Heron
#4-8 all under 15:10
4th Ryan
5th Feeley
6th Klueh
7th Ranford
8th Gemmell
I agree with Mcbroom winning, he has been very consistent and Jaeger Also does the 200/400. As for 3rd, I’m going with Frayler. He was very good out of high school and is making big drops this year
1st Mcbroom 14:49
2nd Jaeger 14:52
3rd Frayler 14:55
Im with stoobie, it seems kind of hard to leave ryan feeley out of this list. He’s been a pretty consistent finalist in 1500, 800, 400 in big events the past couple of years. he also had a pretty good meet at santa clara, i think he went like 15:21. Im not sure if he will compete with the big guys but he seems a lot more qualified than others. either way i can’t wait to watch the distance events at nationals this summer.
that just makes Ledecky’s 1500 all the more insane that we are talking about elite guys only going 10ish seconds faster
Crazy, huh? The last time I checked, Ledecky was ranked 9th in the U.S.
Us is in a way better position with those 3 guys on the top list to shine through this year big meets . It’s very exciting for this summer and next summer : 1) Mc Broom 2) Jaeger 3) Ryan
I know the list can go on and on, but guys like Ryan Feeley and J.P. Ransford could be sleepers. Ransford in particular seems to be dropping his PB a lot in the past year and a half.
It great to see US distance swimming being so deep. I remember the 90’s when we did not have as much.
***P.J. not J.P., sorry***
Stoobie – with Ransford on the Youth Olympic Games team, my guess is that he’ll just kind of push through Nationals, though of course being only three weeks out, there’s no reason he couldn’t swim well at both. Don’t think it will be his “full taper” meet though.
One thing to (quietly) watch for with PJ-he will still be 18 at next spring’s NCAAs, and will be able to take a legitimate crack at one of the oldest NAGs still on the books, Kostoff’s 1650 and 1000 from 84 and 83.