At the Mesa Pro Swim Michael Phelps got off to a sluggish start, not making the 200 free final. Racing in the banana heat, he pushed his horsepower and revealed a lot about where he is at in training.
200 free is painful, much harder than 200 fly. Phelps can rely on rhythm and technique in fly. He can’t in 200 free. It’s all drive from the legs, all high-gear-power for a high body-position in the water. Start to finish. Phelps, since 2008, has been striving for that elusive superhuman body-position he felt at the Beijing Games–his 1:42. In Mesa, he felt it, in a small way.
Phelps split a sub 52 at the 100 meter mark in his 200m free. Flipping in 51 point 9, at this point in the season, is huge. You can count on Phelps being out at the 100 in 50 point at the U.S. Olympic Swimming Trials (if he has to swim it there to seal his spot on the 4×200 relay). In late June, I think flipping in 50 point at the 100 will be easy-speed for him.
Is he really considering 200m free as an individual race? I don’t think so. The Beijing Olympic 200m free was perfect, a work of art. He doesn’t need to do it again. This Olympics for the Greatest Athlete of All-Time is about striving to deliver perfect performances in other events, 100 fly, 200 fly, and 200 IM. Besides, he’ll swim his 200 free flying from a relay start in Rio.
MP 200 FREE PREDICTIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS YEAR:
AUSTIN – EARLY JUNE: I’m conflicted. I wouldn’t be surprised if he swims 200 free in 1:46.7, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t swim it at all. On the other hand, he could swim it gunning for a 1:45, a time that “could” put him on the 2016 Olympic Games 4×200 relay. Relay selection is up to Coach Bowman, the Men’s Olympic Team Coach, and no one could or would question him putting Phelps in the lineup. (Thinking this through, 200 free could be very interesting with respect to Phelps and how he manages his schedule over the next 8 weeks.)
OLYMPIC TRIALS: In Omaha, in prelims, he’s 1:44.9 if he blasts the race to the wall. He could also clock a 1:45.7, backing off intensity, cruising into the wall, a swim fast enough to seal his spot on the relay.
OLYMPIC GAMES: With a flying relay start in Rio, he splits 1:43.4. Team USA wins the gold.
200 free is a tough call. What do you think? Share your wisdom!
You can follow Michael Phelps on Twitter here.
See Michael Phelps’ MP HQ here.
RECENT EPISODES
This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com, a Swimming News website.
For the 200
– who is the one who can go world class from 100-400?
-who is the best 50-200?
-who is the specialist 200?
-who is the strength /agilty mix?
If you put in the current trials efforts plus a guess at the new mix coming up in the US trials – you may be able to place MP . His best chance is the latter with Lochte but Hagino is everything they are PLUS a top 400 freestyler.
1988 92 & 96 – Duncan Yevgeny & Damian swept both the 200 & 400. Not certain of Damian but Duncan & Yevgeny had brutal training programs . Spartan like.
2000 -Hoogie a 50-200 guy .
2004 – Thorpe a 100-400 guy .(plus a not a lack of strength . His 2003 silver medal im was ugly but he powered thru it not by stylistics ).
2008 – MP an agility & strength guy.
2012 . Agnel a 100-400 range guy.
Taking the modern era as 2000 onwards , we see that the winners were all olympic & world medalists in other events besides the 200 free & that they were established stars prior .
The ages of… Read more »
Ooops I just assumed Agnel won London. I really don’t remember . If not the substitute just that guy in & put him in a category -Thanks.
Talking about the 200 free, Agnel has taken his decision. He wants to swim that event in Rio.
http://www.lequipe.fr/Natation/Actualites/Yannick-agnel-veut-disputer-le-200m-en-individuel/670800
Phelps will swim 200 free individually in Rio, i am surprised that no one has understood the plan of his coach so far …
Has anyone ever asked himself why Bowman broke Agnel? He knew that Agnel would be the only one who could beat Phelps at 200 free in Rio, now the way is open for Phelps, he will win with 1:44 low and Guy/Yang win silver/bronze with 1:44 high, maybe Agnel finds 1.5-2s somewhere and fights for silver or bronze as well.
Now i was just joking, but i am sure that there will be people who think this really happened if Phelps wins the gold medal at mens 200 free in Rio.
TLF, it’s not a joke, in some French sports websites’ forums, I read very often that Bowman has voluntarily killed Agnel’s career! 😆
Don’t forget that the 1929 crisis is also Bowman’s fault! 🙄
Interesting to note that nearly everyone’s saying that 200 free is the roughest one for Phelps untapered, but there is wide skepticism (even from myself) about the amount of time that a tapered Phelps can lower in the 200 free, with regards to 200 fly or also 200 im.
3 weeks ago at Mesa Phelps swam: 1.48.21 in the 200 free, 1.58.14 in the 200 fly and 1.57.90 in the 200 im.
After last year San Antonio Nats, everyone is expecting Phelps in the 1.52 territory in the 200 fly (more than 5 seconds better than Mesa’s time) and at least in the 1.54 low territory in the 200 im (more than 3 second and a half better than Mesa’s… Read more »
Just two quick observations (and then bye bye):
1) In this site, lately, it is rather difficult to understand the order of messages, but even more difficult to understand the downvotes and upvotes..
2) Obviously, I care nothing about upvotes or downvotes in itself (there isn’t anything to win or lose..), but it’s pretty annoying, seeing useless upvotes or downvotes instead of reading some interesting reply.
I despise the down votes and up votes. This causes people to censor themselves or not comment at all. My other go-to swim site does not use these and I prefer it that way.
I think a little under 1:40 if he leads off
I expect Phelps will swim 1-2 rounds of the 200 at Trials, but won’t swim the final. Even though it’s looking like a weak event internationally, it bumps up against the 200 fly, which is his (non-living) baby.
Bowman will put him on the relay, if Phelps is anywhere close to 1:44 (which I expect).
I personally don’t think he should do 200 free. He should focus on the fly’s and 200 IM. Then he would have the medley relay, I think that’s enough for him.
well we,ll have to see if Phelps can hang on in the 200 free in 3 rounds at his age. He,s four years older than 2012.
Also 3 rounds of the 200 fly is no joke at the age of 31.
I think he should swim just the 100 fly and 200im individually and skip the 200 fly but I have to say that the 100 fly is more competitive than at any point in history. The final in Kazan was the fastest 100 fly final in history with the top 3 (Chad le clos, lazlo Czech and Joseph schooling) going sub 51 (very impressive). Also it was swam in 3 rounds.
Forth place tom shields swam a 51.08.… Read more »
1) I think Metella didnt even qualify, he only had a time of 51.6 or something like that.
2) Dont forget guys like Czerniak or Conger.
3) You could also mention Pereira in mens 200 IM.
4) At 200 fly we also have young guns like Zhuhao, Switkowski or Kenderesi.
5) In my opinion 200 IM will be the most difficult for him to win.
6) I hope that Lochte and Hagino will focus on 200/400 IM and Cseh/Le Clos should focus on 100/200 fly.
I think Cseh might even focus only on the 200 fly, he never won an olympic gold medal, so one gold medal will be more valuable for him than… Read more »