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Mixed Free Relay Lineup Predictions: Gold All but Written for the Australians

2023 WORLD AQUATICS CHAMPIONSHIPS

MIXED 4×100 FREESTYLE RELAY — PRELIMS

  • World Record: 3:19.38 — Australia (2022)
  • Championship Record: 3:19.38 — Australia (2022)
  • World Junior Record: 3:25.92 — United States (2019)
  • 2022 Winning Time: 3:19.38
  • 2022 Top 8 Time: 3:27.20

Top 8:

  1. Australia — 3:21.88
  2. United States — 3:23.85
  3. Italy — 3:24.39
  4. Great Britain — 3:24.41
  5. Canada — 3:24.63
  6. Japan — 3:26.47
  7. Brazil — 3:26.48
  8. Germany — 3:26.78

The prelims went relatively close to form. SwimSwam did pick China and France to place top 8, but they ended up finishing 9th and 10th after not utilizing most of their best sprinters. Moving into the final tonight in their stead are the teams from Japan (our dark horse) and Germany (whose men swam lights out in the 4×200 relay last night).

Looking at the contenders in the mixed 4×100 free relay, one should be hearing “Aussie Aussie Aussie, Oi, Oi, Oi” all night. The #1 seeds, by nearly two full seconds, will most likely swap out three legs. Kyle Chalmers, the winner of the 100 free, will almost certainly come into the relay. At the 2022 Worlds and at the 2022 Commonwealths, Chalmers swam 2nd, so expect to see him there.

Between Flynn Southam and Jack Cartwright, the Australian coaches are most likely leaning towards Cartwright, whose flat start in the men’s 4×100 free relay was faster than Southam’s flying start.

For the women, Mollie O’Callaghan, the winner of the women’s 100 free, should easily slot into the relay alongside Shayna Jack, who has been swimming lights out on the relays, despite not swimming the 100 individually. Jack and Emma McKeon do have the 50 free earlier in the session, but that shouldn’t hold Jack back at all.

These three changes can easily cover the two-and-a-half-second differential between the Australian prelim time of 3:21.88 and their world record time of 3:19.88

Final predicted AUS roster: Cartwright, Chalmers, Jack, O’Callaghan

Sitting in second is the American squad, who, like the Australians, will most likely bring in three new swimmers. Surprise silver medalist in the men’s 100 free, Jack Alexy, will most likely slot into the lead-off spot of the relay. Based on the times from the prelims, the men’s 100 free, and the 4×100 free relay, retaining Matt King seems to be the best bet. His 47.32 was faster than anyone on the men’s relay, and his flat start swim this morning was faster than Chris Guiliano’s individual 100 swim.

The LetBellaSprint experiment, while earning the USA lane five tonight, was not a light’s outperformance, but perhaps was the best the US could manage. Bella Sims‘s time of 54.05 was slower than Torri Huske’s and Gretchen Walsh’s 100 from the 4×100 free relay but Huske and Walsh do have the 50 fly final tonight and most likely were rested for that reason (Walsh also has the 50 free semi).

Expect Abbey Weitzeil and Kate Douglass to slot into this relay. They have the fastest two splits and swam the event individually.

Final predicted USA roster: Alexy, King, Weitzeil, Douglass

Third fastest into the final tonight was the Italian team. The two front legs were Alessandro Miressi and Manuel Frigo. Miressi and Frigo should be the two to swim tonight. While Thomas Ceccon was much faster than Frigo in the men’s 4×100 free relay (47.03 vs. 47.79), he does have the 50 back semi-finals as well as the medley relay prelims the following morning. Expect Frigo but don’t be surprised if Ceccon is in, especially if the Italians think they can medal.

The Italians used Constanza Cocconceilli and Sofia Morini, their fastest from the women’s relay, so expect to see them again.

Final predicted ITA roster: Miressi, Frigo, Cocconcelli, Morini

Entering tonight’s final in the 4th -6th spots are the team from Great Britain, Canada, and Japan. Each team will most likely bring in two swimmers in an attempt to leapfrog Italy and contest for the bronze, if not silver, medal.

Team GB will bring in British National record holder in the 100 free, Matthew Richards. Richards swam 47.45 to place 5th in the final of the 100 free. Richards also won the 200 free in 1:44.30 over teammate Tom Dean. Dean swam in the prelims this morning, splitting 47.93. Between Dean and Duncan Scott, expect to see Dean. Despite Scott finishing ahead of Dean at the 2023 British trial in the 100, Dean swam the only sub 1:44 in the entire field of the men’s 4×200 free relay, while Scott led off in 1:45 mid.

For the last two legs, Anna Hopkin will most likely join Freya Anderson on the relay. Hopkin scratched the individual 100 free but anchored the mixed medley relay in 52.86 on Day 4, a time much faster than anyone else on the roster.

Final predicted GBR roster: Richards, Dean, Hopkin, Anderson

Canada will also most likely sin in one man and one woman. Josh Liendo placed 14th in the individual final in a time of 48.22. At the 2022 Worlds and 2022 Commonwealths, Canada used Javier Acevedo instead of Ruslan Gaziev, but Gaziev has been having a stronger meet.

In the prelims, Canada swam Mary-Sophie Harvey and Taylor Ruck. Maggie MacNeil, who split 53.07 in the women’s 4×100 free relay, would be an obvious replacement to join the team, but for whom? Harvey was just .03 faster this morning, and both Harvey and Ruck have split 53.99 on the 4×100 free relay (Harvey in prelims and Ruck in finals). Summer McIntosh opened the 4×100 women’s relay in just 54.99 and has the prelims of the 400 IM in the morning.

Final predicted CAN roster: Ruslan, Liendo, Harvey, MacNeil 

The last of the teams expected to make significant moves is the host nation, Japan. Japan qualified nearly two seconds behind Canada but could eat into that lead with two major changes. Finishing in 21st with a time of 48.58, well off his season best of 47.77, was Katsuhiro Matsumoto. Matsumoto replacing Tomonobu Gomi on the lead-off leg should make up over a second as Gomi led off in the slowest time among the men, 49.65. The Japanese used Yume Jinno on the anchor leg this morning, splitting 54.44. Rikako Ikee swam as fast as 54.51 in this meet when she led off the prelims of the women’s 4×100 free relay, so Ikee could easily swim faster than the flying-start time of Jinno.

Final predicted JPN roster: Matsumoto, Nakamura, Ikemoto, Ikee

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Ronald Sekops
1 year ago

Gold Aussie WR Silver USA Bronze to GB , well done all teams

Jalen T
1 year ago

Not just mixed relays…. But most relays especially their women. Meanwhile we still have ZERO

Sub13
1 year ago

I feel that Scott over Dean may have been a mistake but shouldn’t matter. Is any other country even close to challenging GB for bronze?

Alison England
Reply to  Sub13
1 year ago

Dean has had more swims, and they need him tomorrow for the medley relay.

Bjoel
Reply to  Sub13
1 year ago

He was faster in the 100 at trials even when his 200 was off so I guess they’re basing it on that plus Dean’s workload.

Also interesting that they’ve just bypassed Burras entirely even in the heats.

Last edited 1 year ago by Bjoel
Nono
1 year ago

Cartwright-Chalmers-Jack-MOC for the Aussies tonight

A bit surprised they used Cartwright earlier. They should have used Kai instead

Last edited 1 year ago by Nono
Nono
Reply to  Nono
1 year ago

US: Alexy-King-Weitzel-Douglass
GB: Richards-Scott-Hopkin-Anderson

Steph
Reply to  Nono
1 year ago

Cartwright swam on the first night and nothing since, probably wanted to blow the cobwebs out of he knew he was in the final

Oceanian
Reply to  Nono
1 year ago

Kai was probably a bit tired after two 200m PBs yesterday.

He did seeme sub-par the day after the 4x1free.

Joel
Reply to  Nono
1 year ago

I think he will be fine. Maybe Jack wanted to swim

Oceanian
1 year ago

Not just mixed relays but relays in general. Though I LOVE relays I wish they could be excluded from discussions about ‘best of all time’. Stick to their individual achievements.

I hated it when track fans used to say that Allison Felix was the GOAT because of her XXX Golds & medals at OG & WC. Ummm – she only won a few individual medals inc gold – her main tally came from being born in the USA and running on a ton of their relay teams.

Last edited 1 year ago by Oceanian
Sub13
Reply to  Oceanian
1 year ago

It’s hard because they’re definitely not worth the same but they’re worth SOMETHING! MOC only does two individual events because she does so many relays. She could arguably medal in 5 individuals if not for relays. Not really accurate to discount them completely.

Oceanian
Reply to  Sub13
1 year ago

Yep – just prefer it if the media said something like ‘MOC (or whoever) won two gold and set a WR. Additionally she won 4 relay golds etc etc’. If she was from NZL she would be regarded as a great champion in Fukuoka but wouldn’t have the benefit of all those bonus medals.

Imagine how many more golds and medals someone like Dawn Fraser would have with a 200m free, a 50m free and all these extra relays.

Oceanian
Reply to  Oceanian
1 year ago

Actually, I’ll do the imagining – just for her first Games:

1956
GOLD 50m Free, 100m Free, 200m Free, 4x100m Free, 4x200m Free, 4x100m Mixed Medley
SILVER 400m Free, 4x100m Medley

6 Golds and 2 Silvers instead of 2 Gold and 1 Silver.

And lord knows how many WRs in there – 6 at least I guess.

Sub13
Reply to  Oceanian
1 year ago

You’re never going to convince the media not to sensationalise. It’s only hardcore swimming fans who really care. The media is never going to downplay one of their countrymen winning a gold medal

flicker
Reply to  Oceanian
1 year ago

I think individual results should obviously be weighted by far more heavily than relays because obviously certain groups of people benefit far more from relays than others but I don’t think they should account for nothing, these swimmers are still putting a lot into these relays with some even forgoing additional individual events just for the sake of relays (like maybe it should be something like a 80/20 and not a 50/50 type of weighting)

Big T
1 year ago

I hope this is included in LA28. Is it too late to be included in Paris?

Mark69
Reply to  Big T
1 year ago

Too late

Steph
1 year ago

All predicted lineup true but they switched dean with Scott and Italians went with ceccon over frigo

Last edited 1 year ago by Steph
Sub13
Reply to  Steph
1 year ago

Interesting they made Cartwright swim twice. We would have been 100% safe with Taylor in the heat

Steph
Reply to  Sub13
1 year ago

He probably wanted a hit out who knows

Sub13
Reply to  Steph
1 year ago

Yeah actually he’s only had two swims the whole meet I think so that makes sense

Bobo Gigi
1 year ago

Mixed relays are an aberration.
It’s absolutely useless.
There were already well enough events before. Why adding that madness to an already very loaded schedule?
Why not also adding the mixed 4X200 free relay? It’s endless.
Of course USA and Australia are very happy.
And then media and ignorant people will dare compare the number of medals won by swimmers of today with swimmers 15 years ago. 🙄
MP would have won 10 gold medals in 2008 with that schedule! Stupid!

Jean-Paul
Reply to  Bobo Gigi
1 year ago

Exactly.

Torchbearer
Reply to  Bobo Gigi
1 year ago

I completely agree- it was a part of a wider IOC campaign for inclusion and gender co-operation. Mixed events were also added in athletics, tennis, ice skating etc….
Swimming in a sense ‘relented’ and chose one event….

Mark69
Reply to  Torchbearer
1 year ago

There has been mixed doubles in tennis for over one hundred years

Mark69
Reply to  Mark69
1 year ago

They had mixed doubles in the Olympics in 1920

Torchbearer
Reply to  Mark69
1 year ago

Tennis was removed from the Olympic program from 1924 to 1988…on return tennis did not include mixed doubles….that was returned in 2012 when the inclusive agenda was implemented.

Mark69
Reply to  Torchbearer
1 year ago

I know all that, but tennis is as hardly adding a new tennis event. The IOC was bringing back an old event. The point is that mixed events are not just a recent creation.

Torchbearer
Reply to  Mark69
1 year ago

I was never saying that, I was giving the reasons for the modern inclusion of mixed doubles….

Alison England
Reply to  Torchbearer
1 year ago

Mixed relays gives smaller nations the chance to compete in more events. Some might have a couple of good sprinters, but not 4.
Another example was the introduction of lightweight rowing events, which gave nations that generally have smaller people, the chance to compete in what is a very niche sport. Or, as FISA (International Rowing Federation) said “to encourage more universality in the sport especially among nations with less statuesque people”.

Mark69
Reply to  Alison England
1 year ago

They have removed all but one of the lightweight rowing events from the Olympics.
But I agree with you, the addition of mixed relays actually helps the middle nations compete, as you only need 2 good swimmers of each gender. It is also easier for small nations to field a mixed particularly medley) team.

Alison England
Reply to  Mark69
1 year ago

Yes, but there’s more LW events in World’s and Euros. I know a couple of people who retired from the sport when the Olympic events were reduced.

Swim Alchemist
Reply to  Bobo Gigi
1 year ago

Don’t worry, European Championships have a Mixed 4×200 Free Relay.

Sub13
Reply to  Bobo Gigi
1 year ago

I actually agree re Mixed Medley. I would prefer a Moxed Free if anything. Mixed Medley basically requires you to have a great male breast and great female free leg or you can’t possibly compete. But everyone swims free so it’s much more likely that smaller nations can throw together a mixed free relay, which is more inclusive and apparently that’s why it’s included

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Braden Keith

Braden Keith is the Editor-in-Chief and a co-founder/co-owner of SwimSwam.com. He first got his feet wet by building The Swimmers' Circle beginning in January 2010, and now comes to SwimSwam to use that experience and help build a new leader in the sport of swimming. Aside from his life on the InterWet, …

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