One of my favorite parts of the Nationals schedule is that the meet jumps in full-bore from the first day with a full slate of events. On day 1, we will learn a ton about several swimmers that will set a huge tone for the rest of the meet. Remember, at stake are spots on the 2010 Pan-Pac Games team.
Click here for live results, beginning at 9AM Pacific time (Noon Eastern) tomorrow.
Per USA-Swimming rules, the men’s and women’s teams are limited to 26 members each, with the following priorities:
#1- The winner of each event, as well as the top four 100 and 200 freestylers (for relays) get the first crack at the Pan-Pacific team. If there are no repeats in this group (which is unlikely, but possible), this will take up a maximum of 19 spots on the roster. This is the only group guaranteed for the Pan-Pacs.
#2- The runner-ups in the other 11 events (that are not the 100 or 200 free, where the runner-ups have already qualified). After this preference, there is a maximum of 30 qualifiers, meaning these swimmers are not guaranteed a roster spot at Pan-Pacs. They are, however, extremely likely to be safe for the Pan-Pac games based on the expectation that there will be at least four overlap spots by this point.
#3. The third-place finisher in the other 11 events (that are not the 100 or 200 free). This is where things get a little dicey. Some of these swimmers will qualify and some will not, based on a separate selection procedure, described below.
#4. The fourth fastest swimmer in each event (that are not the 100 or 200 free). It would be highly unusual, although possible, for one of these swimmers to qualify for the 26 that make the Pan-Pac team.
Selection procedure within a priority: If, within a priority, the maximum of 26 swimmers has been met, the following will be used to choose which swimmers qualify. Out of the eligible swimmers within that priority, the swimmers will fill in the remaining spots based on the highest world ranking. (For example, if, there are 24 swimmers after the second priority, and 5 additional swimmers qualify in the third priority, the 2 swimmers with the highest world ranking in their third place finish will qualify for the Pan Pac team).
The top headlines for Day 1:
1) Ryan Lochte’s Groin- No, ladies, not like that. Ryan Lochte has been nursing a groin injury and has said that he will leave his decision on whether or not to swim the IM races (where his groin will have the biggest effect, due to the breaststroke). I heard from a guy who heard from a guy who heard from an unreliable source that Lochte has been swimming breaststroke in practice this week, so I’m going to lean towards him swimming the IM’s, but stay tuned. If he does go on the 400 IM, expect him to scratch the 400 free.
2) Ryan Lochte’s Shoes- Speedo has given Ryan Lochte the lattitude to design his own shoe, ala Michael Jordan or Dr. J. Now that Michael Phelps has signed a drylands contract with Under Armour, Lochte is the biggest name left to push their footwear. Lochte is a bit of a crazy guy, so these shoes could be out of this world. The question is whether or not he’s been focused in training with the newfound fanfare. Time shall tell.
3) Dana Vollmer- Vollmer has seen a huge resurgence in her career after failing to make the 2008 Olympic Team. We will get a chance to see if she’s carried over her success from the 2009 NCAA and World Championships to this year’s meet in the very first event of the meet: the 100 fly.
Predictions (In meet order)-
Women’s 100 fly
- Dana Vollmer
- Christine Magnuson
- Natalie Coughlin
Breakdown: Vollmer has the top time in the world in this event this season, and should be able to hold off Magnuson and Coughlin. Coughlin has reported to found a renewed love for the sport centered around a routine with less time in the pool than when she was younger. She has swum well this season, and has the second best time of the field this season, but the question here is what her taper will look like.
Men’s 400 free
- Peter Vanderkaay
- Chad La Tourette
- Matt Patton
Breakdown: Vanderkaay has had a great season thus far, and I expect him to get an easy win here. La Tourette swam outstandingly last season in polyurethane, but the jury’s still out as to how well he will carry that over in a jammer. Club Wolverine boasts 5 out of the top 13 seeds in this event, and I think training with a crew like that means at least 2 of them have to end up in the top 3. I think Patton is the one who gets it done. Lochte will be a factor if he swims the event, but as mentioned I think he’s going to be a go for the 400 IM.
Women’s 200 IM
- Ariana Kukors
- Julia Smit
- Elizabeth Beisel
Breakdown: Kukors is the clear favorite in this race. After that, it’s probably the most wide open race in the meet, with any one down to about #14 Kathleen Hersey having a chance to medal and make the Pan-Pac team. I like Smit to win the silver, as she threw up some amazing short course times during the NCAA season without any serious push in the IM events. I have no good justification for Beisel in third, other than a gut feeling. I like Justine Mueller or Dagny Knutson as next in line.
Men’s 100 breaststroke
- Eric Shanteau
- Marcus Titus
- Mark Gangloff
Breakdown: As Chris DeSantis put it, Shanteau might be the mythical World Champion this summer. Gangloff, Titus, and Shanteau have been neck-and-neck all season. I may have been unduly inspired by the recent Swimming World piece on Titus coping with being deaf, but I think he’s ready to explode now that he’s put University life in his rearview and can put his full focus on swimming. Gangloff is aging, but at 28 still will be a strong competitor in what is likely his last Olympic cycle.
Women’s 400 freestyle
- Katie Hoff
- Chloe Sutton
- Allison Schmitt
Breakdown: Katie Hoff has looked very good since leaving NBAC for FAST. If she can recover well from the 200 IM (or scratches finals), I think she gets the win here. Her seed time of 4:06.21 was swum this season (in July), which shows how much of an improvement she’s made this year. Sutton is definitely a distance star in the making, but I’m not sure this race is quite long enough for her to win. Although Schmitt has the top seed time, I’ve not been in love with her swims this summer. Dagny Knutson has also been steadily improving in this distance, and by 2012 (after moving to FAST to train with Hoff) she could be an Olympic contendor.
Men’s 400 IM
- Tyler Clary
- Ryan Lochte
- Alex Vanderkaay
Breakdown: Watching Clary swim the 400 IM is just a joy in and of itself. He negative splits everything, and seems to build momentum and get stronger throughout the race. He’s really got the perfect racing technique and strategy. He seems to be peaking at the right time, and I like him to win. Vanderkaay and Lochte are the only two other “big names” in the race, and I think they get the podium spots. I have Lochte second. I see his groin (not to mention the knee injury that he’s only recently recovering from) giving him just enough doubt to let Cary win, but he’s still got the chops to pull of second. All eyes will be on this race to see whether or not Lochte swims it. He’ll likely swim prelims in both the 400 free and 400 IM, and make his decision before finals. He can definitely final in both, since there will be 14 heats of the women’s 400 free and 17 heats of the men’s 400 IM in between races.
Sorry- to clarify- I don’t want to make the switch on my official contest picks. Leave Lochte third and Vanderkaay second. Thanks for the offer, though.
Well this is your last chance to change for the whole thing, so speak up now if there’s anything else! I’ll go back and make the adjustment now.
Yep, I switched on purpose. I was using a little bit of strategy for the sake of the selection contest. I feel that Lochte will probably be a go in the 400 IM, and I think that he will be second.
That should be the only change on day 1 from my contest picks.
Uhh you gave me Vanderkaay second in the 400 IM, Lochte third. I agree that he could do both in the prelims (unless the groin is really an issue before that); no indication that he has scratched one yet.