We’re a more than a month into the men’s NCAA season and nearly every championship relevant team has competed multiple times. This means the top swimmers in the division have all put up times. With this early data, what can we tell about the state of the top end of the division?
Individual Events
The first thing I looked at was the top ten times in each event this year and each of the previous 7 years as of November 6th. They are slower this year than last almost across the board. This is the first year in the last 6 that has been true. The average of the top 10 times is on average .6% slower than at this point last season. At no point in the last 6 years has the top 10 average been any worse than .1% faster than the year before. The complete top 10 average time change data is in the table below.
The savior of this season is the mile which has been 1.5% faster than last year among top swimmers, but that is probably just a regression to the mean because the mile last year was much slower than the year before (1.6%). 10 of 13 individual events had a slower top 10 average than at this point last year.
Time Change of Average of Top 10 Times
Negative is faster. Positive is slower. 2019 is this season.
| 2013 vs 2012 | 2014 vs 2013 | 2015 vs 2014 | 2016 vs 2015 | 2017 vs 2016 | 2018 vs 2017 | 2019 vs 2018 | |
| Average | -0.1% | -0.8% | -0.2% | -0.5% | -0.3% | -0.3% | 0.6% |
| 100 Fly | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.2% | -0.8% | -0.2% | -1.2% | 1.4% |
| 200 Fly | -0.9% | -1.2% | 0.0% | -0.4% | -0.3% | -0.1% | 0.8% |
| 50 Free | 0.3% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.1% | -0.5% | -0.2% | 0.5% |
| 100 Free | 0.8% | -0.6% | -0.1% | -0.5% | -0.8% | -0.4% | 1.3% |
| 200 Free | -0.1% | -0.5% | 0.1% | -0.4% | -0.5% | -0.8% | 1.1% |
| 500 Free | 0.3% | -0.1% | 0.0% | -0.5% | -0.4% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| 1650 Free | 0.2% | -0.8% | -0.1% | -0.3% | -0.6% | 1.6% | -1.5% |
| 100 Breast | 0.6% | -0.9% | -0.8% | -0.1% | 0.2% | -0.6% | -0.3% |
| 200 Breast | 0.1% | -1.1% | -0.4% | -0.2% | 0.0% | -0.2% | 0.4% |
| 100 Back | 0.0% | -0.6% | -0.5% | -1.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | 0.8% |
| 200 Back | -0.5% | -1.0% | 0.1% | -1.4% | 0.0% | -0.4% | 1.0% |
| 200 IM | -0.4% | -1.5% | 0.1% | -0.6% | -0.4% | -0.4% | 1.4% |
| 400 IM | -0.8% | -0.9% | -0.1% | 0.2% | -0.5% | -0.7% | 0.8% |
So what does it mean? Possibly not very much. There isn’t a very strong correlation between time change in the top 10 swimmers this time of year and time change in the top 10 swimmers at the end of the year. That isn’t surprising. With a sample size as low as 10, this data can be as much a measure of who has actually swum the event as much as swimmer quality.
However, the fact that this year’s data is so different across the board than last year’s data may mean something. The only event in the past with over a 1% slow down this time of year, the mile last year, saw a 1.5% slow down at the end of the year.
The difference almost looks like a systemic departure from the past years. Only twice in the past 7 years was the top 10 average in an event more than .8% slower than the year before. This year, that’s true in 8 of 13 events. Last year’s senior class was exceptionally strong. Perhaps their absence is dragging down the average. However, individual swimmer departures would be more likely to affect some events more than others. This year’s slow down is pretty across the board.
On a swimmer by swimmer basis, for the most part, it seems like top teams have been performing pretty normally relative to themselves at this point last year. Maybe that means we’re in for a bit of a correction at the top after the explosive speed of last year’s NCAA championships. Or maybe the lack of correlation between these early season time changes and end of season improvement will continue.
In short: What does it mean going forward? I’m not sure. There isn’t a track record for the pattern we’ve seen so far to base our expectations on. This will be something to keep an eye on the rest of the way.
Team Race
One way to check up on the current state of the team race is the current Swimulator simulation of the national meet. Swimulator takes the current top times done so far this season and simulates the national meet with legal and reasonable event line ups for swimmers (3 individual event limit, no consecutive events). Many teams are at different points in their training cycle so far, so team’s rankings mean different things for different teams. To help put the current rankings into context, I included the rankings from last year as of 11/6 and the final ranking last year.
Currently Cal sit first with 303.5 points, well ahead of their 250 at this point last year. They are trailed by the closely bunched group of Florida with 250, USC with 245.5, and Indiana with 245. These scores do not include diving
Swimulator Data
| Current Swimulator Score | Last Year as of 11/6 | Last Year Final | |
| California | 303.5 | 250 | 413.5 |
| Florida | 250 | 373 | 346 |
| Southern Cali | 245.5 | 198 | 222.5 |
| Indiana | 245 | 292.5 | 330 |
| Louisville | 233 | 71 | 139 |
| Alabama | 232.5 | 255.5 | 79.5 |
| Texas | 211 | 134 | 376.5 |
| NC State | 180.5 | 207 | 393.5 |
| Ohio St | 123 | 18 | 32.5 |
| Virginia Tech | 115 | 22 | 1 |
| Texas A&M | 94.5 | 133 | 49 |
| Michigan | 92.5 | 185 | 165 |
| Virginia | 90 | 0 | 16.5 |
| Georgia | 87 | 60 | 119 |
| Notre Dame | 84.5 | 67 | 23.5 |
| Minnesota | 79 | 35 | 73 |
| Florida St | 65 | 78.5 | 50 |
| Missouri | 59.5 | 14 | 25 |
| Tennessee | 51.5 | 163 | 60 |
| West Virginia | 51 | 34 | 6.5 |
| Miami (Ohio) | 45 | 0 | 0 |
| UNC | 44 | 33 | 0 |
| Georgia Tech | 40 | 22 | 2.5 |
| Cincinnati | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| Arizona St | 39.5 | 157 | 35 |
| Kentucky | 35 | 16 | 0 |
| UCSB | 34 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri St. (M) | 32 | 0 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 32 | 0 | 2 |
| CSUB | 30 | 0 | 0 |
| Iowa | 30 | 2 | 0 |
| Pittsburgh | 28 | 21 | 0 |
| Stanford | 26 | 121 | 192 |
| Xavier | 22 | 0 | 0 |
| Drexel | 18 | 30 | 0 |
| Grand Canyon | 16 | 8 | 22 |
| Towson | 16 | 0 | 4 |
| Arizona | 14 | 37 | 65.5 |
| South Dakota | 14 | 22 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| Northwestern | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| Loyola (MD) | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| South Carolina | 12 | 21 | 56 |
| Utah | 10 | 38 | 4 |
| Cleveland St | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Duke | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Holy Cross | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Denver | 5 | 7 | 21 |
| William & Mary | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Top 10 Times Each Event as of November 6th
| 2011-12 | 2012-13 | 2013-14 | 2014-15 | 2015-16 | 2016-17 | 2017-18 | 2018-19 | ||
| 100 Fly | 1 | 47.42 | 47.83 | 47.21 | 47.3 | 46.97 | 46.55 | 46.03 | 47.14 |
| 100 Fly | 2 | 47.94 | 47.85 | 47.36 | 47.48 | 47.2 | 46.91 | 46.09 | 47.14 |
| 100 Fly | 3 | 48.01 | 47.88 | 47.71 | 47.54 | 47.22 | 46.93 | 46.31 | 47.25 |
| 100 Fly | 4 | 48.03 | 47.97 | 47.76 | 47.56 | 47.24 | 47.1 | 46.57 | 47.26 |
| 100 Fly | 5 | 48.24 | 47.98 | 47.78 | 47.71 | 47.3 | 47.23 | 46.68 | 47.28 |
| 100 Fly | 6 | 48.3 | 48.06 | 47.84 | 47.74 | 47.31 | 47.25 | 46.89 | 47.3 |
| 100 Fly | 7 | 48.37 | 48.13 | 47.85 | 47.83 | 47.33 | 47.32 | 47 | 47.38 |
| 100 Fly | 8 | 48.54 | 48.15 | 47.9 | 47.86 | 47.54 | 47.39 | 47.01 | 47.44 |
| 100 Fly | 9 | 48.7 | 48.16 | 48.11 | 47.91 | 47.55 | 47.53 | 47.02 | 47.49 |
| 100 Fly | 10 | 48.74 | 48.2 | 48.22 | 47.92 | 47.61 | 47.63 | 47.1 | 47.5 |
| 200 Fly | 1 | 1:47.31 | 1:45.54 | 1:43.55 | 1:43.78 | 1:44.19 | 1:42.64 | 1:42.08 | 1:43.81 |
| 200 Fly | 2 | 1:47.63 | 1:45.73 | 1:43.80 | 1:43.93 | 1:44.69 | 1:44.02 | 1:43.28 | 1:44.26 |
| 200 Fly | 3 | 1:47.67 | 1:46.00 | 1:44.17 | 1:44.34 | 1:45.18 | 1:44.52 | 1:44.18 | 1:45.27 |
| 200 Fly | 4 | 1:47.91 | 1:46.89 | 1:45.41 | 1:44.77 | 1:45.20 | 1:44.69 | 1:44.35 | 1:45.77 |
| 200 Fly | 5 | 1:48.07 | 1:47.19 | 1:46.05 | 1:45.95 | 1:45.27 | 1:45.37 | 1:44.86 | 1:45.98 |
| 200 Fly | 6 | 1:48.12 | 1:47.75 | 1:46.55 | 1:46.72 | 1:45.27 | 1:45.63 | 1:45.25 | 1:46.02 |
| 200 Fly | 7 | 1:48.20 | 1:47.90 | 1:46.82 | 1:46.90 | 1:45.78 | 1:45.65 | 1:45.65 | 1:46.19 |
| 200 Fly | 8 | 1:48.25 | 1:47.91 | 1:47.11 | 1:46.96 | 1:45.86 | 1:45.72 | 1:46.28 | 1:46.27 |
| 200 Fly | 9 | 1:48.40 | 1:47.98 | 1:47.23 | 1:47.03 | 1:46.00 | 1:45.82 | 1:46.41 | 1:46.53 |
| 200 Fly | 10 | 1:48.72 | 1:48.11 | 1:47.24 | 1:47.06 | 1:46.06 | 1:45.93 | 1:46.41 | 1:46.54 |
| 50 Free | 1 | 19.79 | 20.03 | 19.87 | 19.5 | 19.36 | 19.44 | 19.1 | 19.65 |
| 50 Free | 2 | 19.84 | 20.03 | 19.93 | 19.76 | 19.65 | 19.47 | 19.65 | 19.77 |
| 50 Free | 3 | 19.9 | 20.04 | 19.97 | 19.77 | 19.83 | 19.56 | 19.66 | 19.79 |
| 50 Free | 4 | 19.98 | 20.04 | 19.99 | 19.93 | 19.87 | 19.75 | 19.77 | 19.88 |
| 50 Free | 5 | 20.11 | 20.14 | 20.04 | 19.94 | 19.98 | 19.81 | 19.8 | 19.89 |
| 50 Free | 6 | 20.15 | 20.16 | 20.04 | 19.96 | 20.01 | 19.82 | 19.83 | 19.89 |
| 50 Free | 7 | 20.22 | 20.18 | 20.09 | 20.01 | 20.05 | 19.92 | 19.85 | 19.9 |
| 50 Free | 8 | 20.24 | 20.22 | 20.09 | 20.03 | 20.06 | 19.92 | 19.89 | 19.93 |
| 50 Free | 9 | 20.28 | 20.23 | 20.11 | 20.04 | 20.08 | 19.94 | 19.92 | 19.94 |
| 50 Free | 10 | 20.28 | 20.26 | 20.12 | 20.08 | 20.09 | 19.95 | 19.93 | 19.96 |
| 100 Free | 1 | 42.93 | 43.65 | 43.85 | 43.3 | 43.01 | 43.09 | 42.65 | 43.4 |
| 100 Free | 2 | 43.59 | 43.77 | 43.91 | 43.69 | 43.17 | 43.1 | 42.95 | 43.6 |
| 100 Free | 3 | 43.61 | 44.04 | 44.03 | 43.74 | 43.4 | 43.22 | 43.07 | 43.81 |
| 100 Free | 4 | 43.99 | 44.28 | 44.03 | 43.9 | 43.58 | 43.25 | 43.22 | 43.85 |
| 100 Free | 5 | 44.02 | 44.37 | 44.03 | 44.1 | 43.94 | 43.28 | 43.26 | 43.87 |
| 100 Free | 6 | 44.07 | 44.53 | 44.06 | 44.12 | 44.01 | 43.41 | 43.36 | 43.88 |
| 100 Free | 7 | 44.26 | 44.6 | 44.09 | 44.2 | 44.04 | 43.48 | 43.36 | 43.89 |
| 100 Free | 8 | 44.3 | 44.6 | 44.09 | 44.31 | 44.11 | 43.73 | 43.42 | 43.89 |
| 100 Free | 9 | 44.33 | 44.66 | 44.13 | 44.32 | 44.14 | 43.79 | 43.5 | 43.91 |
| 100 Free | 10 | 44.43 | 44.68 | 44.34 | 44.32 | 44.19 | 43.85 | 43.61 | 43.92 |
| 200 Free | 1 | 1:34.66 | 1:35.26 | 1:35.71 | 1:36.08 | 1:34.81 | 1:35.75 | 1:34.10 | 1:34.84 |
| 200 Free | 2 | 1:37.21 | 1:36.11 | 1:36.16 | 1:36.29 | 1:35.49 | 1:35.82 | 1:34.16 | 1:35.82 |
| 200 Free | 3 | 1:37.27 | 1:37.04 | 1:36.31 | 1:36.52 | 1:35.91 | 1:35.99 | 1:34.59 | 1:36.23 |
| 200 Free | 4 | 1:37.29 | 1:37.39 | 1:36.53 | 1:36.78 | 1:36.55 | 1:36.03 | 1:35.13 | 1:36.32 |
| 200 Free | 5 | 1:37.71 | 1:37.52 | 1:36.58 | 1:36.93 | 1:36.71 | 1:36.09 | 1:35.56 | 1:36.33 |
| 200 Free | 6 | 1:37.74 | 1:37.60 | 1:37.26 | 1:36.93 | 1:37.06 | 1:36.19 | 1:35.64 | 1:36.47 |
| 200 Free | 7 | 1:37.92 | 1:37.81 | 1:37.40 | 1:36.95 | 1:37.08 | 1:36.24 | 1:35.65 | 1:36.66 |
| 200 Free | 8 | 1:38.00 | 1:37.92 | 1:37.42 | 1:37.33 | 1:37.19 | 1:36.27 | 1:35.80 | 1:36.80 |
| 200 Free | 9 | 1:38.12 | 1:38.13 | 1:37.43 | 1:37.54 | 1:37.21 | 1:36.27 | 1:36.22 | 1:36.89 |
| 200 Free | 10 | 1:38.22 | 1:38.17 | 1:37.47 | 1:37.55 | 1:37.38 | 1:36.35 | 1:36.32 | 1:37.07 |
| 500 Free | 1 | 4:16.92 | 4:21.20 | 4:22.13 | 4:21.84 | 4:20.29 | 4:17.09 | 4:15.41 | 4:17.06 |
| 500 Free | 2 | 4:20.15 | 4:21.44 | 4:22.50 | 4:22.03 | 4:21.95 | 4:19.05 | 4:19.71 | 4:19.92 |
| 500 Free | 3 | 4:24.43 | 4:24.50 | 4:23.09 | 4:22.72 | 4:22.20 | 4:21.82 | 4:20.72 | 4:19.96 |
| 500 Free | 4 | 4:24.52 | 4:25.47 | 4:24.56 | 4:23.38 | 4:23.08 | 4:21.84 | 4:21.32 | 4:20.34 |
| 500 Free | 5 | 4:25.00 | 4:25.70 | 4:24.78 | 4:24.67 | 4:23.22 | 4:22.73 | 4:21.66 | 4:21.91 |
| 500 Free | 6 | 4:25.17 | 4:25.81 | 4:25.28 | 4:24.81 | 4:24.15 | 4:23.53 | 4:22.59 | 4:22.27 |
| 500 Free | 7 | 4:26.20 | 4:25.96 | 4:25.69 | 4:25.84 | 4:24.24 | 4:23.73 | 4:23.64 | 4:22.30 |
| 500 Free | 8 | 4:26.28 | 4:26.05 | 4:25.93 | 4:26.37 | 4:24.44 | 4:23.79 | 4:24.07 | 4:22.53 |
| 500 Free | 9 | 4:26.34 | 4:26.18 | 4:26.02 | 4:27.12 | 4:24.55 | 4:23.85 | 4:24.08 | 4:22.70 |
| 500 Free | 10 | 4:26.37 | 4:26.54 | 4:27.19 | 4:27.22 | 4:24.75 | 4:24.71 | 4:24.55 | 4:22.96 |
| 1650 Free | 1 | 15:22.69 | 15:27.55 | 15:17.37 | 15:24.13 | 15:06.56 | 14:57.58 | 15:19.82 | 15:08.35 |
| 1650 Free | 2 | 15:25.33 | 15:29.15 | 15:22.15 | 15:24.54 | 15:17.30 | 15:03.04 | 15:20.20 | 15:13.13 |
| 1650 Free | 3 | 15:34.14 | 15:32.73 | 15:22.35 | 15:26.57 | 15:21.15 | 15:10.80 | 15:26.03 | 15:17.10 |
| 1650 Free | 4 | 15:34.22 | 15:33.77 | 15:32.41 | 15:27.12 | 15:27.94 | 15:16.68 | 15:29.62 | 15:17.22 |
| 1650 Free | 5 | 15:35.28 | 15:36.01 | 15:33.35 | 15:28.25 | 15:31.83 | 15:19.00 | 15:32.35 | 15:18.29 |
| 1650 Free | 6 | 15:39.64 | 15:40.61 | 15:34.76 | 15:32.35 | 15:32.85 | 15:26.99 | 15:35.25 | 15:23.16 |
| 1650 Free | 7 | 15:39.93 | 15:44.69 | 15:35.54 | 15:32.54 | 15:32.89 | 15:33.22 | 15:51.12 | 15:32.03 |
| 1650 Free | 8 | 15:46.08 | 15:47.27 | 15:36.47 | 15:32.83 | 15:35.34 | 15:34.55 | 15:51.31 | 15:33.29 |
| 1650 Free | 9 | 15:47.11 | 15:47.40 | 15:39.54 | 15:39.32 | 15:35.34 | 15:37.56 | 15:52.20 | 15:35.84 |
| 1650 Free | 10 | 15:48.20 | 15:49.73 | 15:40.91 | 15:41.57 | 15:35.44 | 15:43.03 | 15:53.69 | 15:36.19 |
| 100 Breast | 1 | 54.28 | 54.28 | 54.09 | 53.22 | 52.13 | 53.77 | 53.19 | 51.82 |
| 100 Breast | 2 | 54.36 | 54.85 | 54.14 | 53.38 | 53.51 | 53.85 | 53.34 | 53.49 |
| 100 Breast | 3 | 54.55 | 54.85 | 54.28 | 53.99 | 54.12 | 53.86 | 53.4 | 53.67 |
| 100 Breast | 4 | 54.69 | 54.99 | 54.37 | 54.04 | 54.19 | 53.87 | 53.42 | 53.69 |
| 100 Breast | 5 | 54.73 | 55.06 | 54.43 | 54.22 | 54.22 | 54.18 | 53.7 | 53.74 |
| 100 Breast | 6 | 54.76 | 55.08 | 54.67 | 54.23 | 54.29 | 54.21 | 53.83 | 53.86 |
| 100 Breast | 7 | 54.81 | 55.11 | 54.8 | 54.24 | 54.29 | 54.25 | 54.09 | 53.94 |
| 100 Breast | 8 | 54.88 | 55.26 | 54.86 | 54.42 | 54.33 | 54.28 | 54.2 | 53.98 |
| 100 Breast | 9 | 54.93 | 55.37 | 54.87 | 54.5 | 54.48 | 54.34 | 54.32 | 54.11 |
| 100 Breast | 10 | 55.06 | 55.49 | 55.01 | 54.67 | 54.62 | 54.45 | 54.34 | 54.12 |
| 200 Breast | 1 | 1:58.38 | 1:58.83 | 1:57.20 | 1:56.74 | 1:55.87 | 1:54.62 | 1:55.93 | 1:56.69 |
| 200 Breast | 2 | 1:59.06 | 1:58.96 | 1:57.61 | 1:56.83 | 1:57.08 | 1:57.50 | 1:56.79 | 1:56.81 |
| 200 Breast | 3 | 1:59.63 | 1:59.01 | 1:57.98 | 1:57.11 | 1:57.52 | 1:57.53 | 1:57.01 | 1:57.91 |
| 200 Breast | 4 | 1:59.69 | 1:59.44 | 1:58.70 | 1:57.48 | 1:57.75 | 1:57.84 | 1:57.79 | 1:57.92 |
| 200 Breast | 5 | 2:00.01 | 2:00.08 | 1:58.73 | 1:57.73 | 1:58.07 | 1:57.89 | 1:58.14 | 1:58.02 |
| 200 Breast | 6 | 2:00.27 | 2:00.18 | 1:58.82 | 1:58.80 | 1:58.34 | 1:58.60 | 1:58.16 | 1:58.74 |
| 200 Breast | 7 | 2:00.31 | 2:00.60 | 1:58.94 | 1:58.92 | 1:58.46 | 1:58.70 | 1:58.21 | 1:59.07 |
| 200 Breast | 8 | 2:00.35 | 2:00.75 | 1:59.19 | 1:59.31 | 1:58.84 | 1:58.77 | 1:58.49 | 1:59.10 |
| 200 Breast | 9 | 2:00.51 | 2:01.04 | 1:59.75 | 1:59.60 | 1:58.84 | 1:58.82 | 1:58.54 | 1:59.12 |
| 200 Breast | 10 | 2:00.63 | 2:01.24 | 1:59.91 | 1:59.68 | 1:59.01 | 1:59.26 | 1:58.60 | 1:59.15 |
| 100 Back | 1 | 47.73 | 47.82 | 47.43 | 47.17 | 46.21 | 45.82 | 45.97 | 46.26 |
| 100 Back | 2 | 48.09 | 48.01 | 47.69 | 47.43 | 46.21 | 46.08 | 46.24 | 46.76 |
| 100 Back | 3 | 48.33 | 48.37 | 48.13 | 47.94 | 46.92 | 46.74 | 46.29 | 47.17 |
| 100 Back | 4 | 48.34 | 48.44 | 48.13 | 47.94 | 47.2 | 46.91 | 46.38 | 47.2 |
| 100 Back | 5 | 48.45 | 48.55 | 48.25 | 47.96 | 47.39 | 47.15 | 46.58 | 47.21 |
| 100 Back | 6 | 48.55 | 48.57 | 48.26 | 48.13 | 47.43 | 47.37 | 46.83 | 47.25 |
| 100 Back | 7 | 48.59 | 48.6 | 48.34 | 48.16 | 47.48 | 47.4 | 47.25 | 47.33 |
| 100 Back | 8 | 48.71 | 48.64 | 48.36 | 48.17 | 47.65 | 47.4 | 47.33 | 47.34 |
| 100 Back | 9 | 48.75 | 48.65 | 48.36 | 48.18 | 47.77 | 47.42 | 47.36 | 47.4 |
| 100 Back | 10 | 48.8 | 48.83 | 48.42 | 48.22 | 47.81 | 47.52 | 47.39 | 47.48 |
| 200 Back | 1 | 1:45.92 | 1:45.21 | 1:43.13 | 1:43.98 | 1:41.35 | 1:40.32 | 1:40.44 | 1:42.53 |
| 200 Back | 2 | 1:46.57 | 1:45.44 | 1:44.93 | 1:44.37 | 1:42.84 | 1:41.80 | 1:40.50 | 1:42.94 |
| 200 Back | 3 | 1:46.58 | 1:45.66 | 1:45.13 | 1:45.11 | 1:43.37 | 1:43.27 | 1:43.02 | 1:44.08 |
| 200 Back | 4 | 1:46.71 | 1:46.03 | 1:45.13 | 1:45.17 | 1:43.38 | 1:43.53 | 1:43.37 | 1:44.34 |
| 200 Back | 5 | 1:46.78 | 1:46.04 | 1:45.30 | 1:45.18 | 1:43.66 | 1:44.23 | 1:44.17 | 1:44.44 |
| 200 Back | 6 | 1:46.82 | 1:46.12 | 1:45.33 | 1:45.32 | 1:43.87 | 1:44.62 | 1:44.33 | 1:45.06 |
| 200 Back | 7 | 1:47.02 | 1:46.31 | 1:45.61 | 1:45.51 | 1:44.76 | 1:44.86 | 1:44.41 | 1:45.14 |
| 200 Back | 8 | 1:47.03 | 1:46.85 | 1:45.67 | 1:45.94 | 1:44.79 | 1:45.28 | 1:44.55 | 1:45.29 |
| 200 Back | 9 | 1:47.05 | 1:46.99 | 1:45.76 | 1:46.26 | 1:45.03 | 1:45.28 | 1:44.79 | 1:45.34 |
| 200 Back | 10 | 1:47.19 | 1:47.21 | 1:45.76 | 1:46.30 | 1:45.08 | 1:45.43 | 1:44.79 | 1:45.45 |
| 200 IM | 1 | 1:48.49 | 1:48.08 | 1:45.23 | 1:46.04 | 1:45.07 | 1:44.20 | 1:44.02 | 1:45.58 |
| 200 IM | 2 | 1:48.75 | 1:48.26 | 1:45.83 | 1:46.71 | 1:45.49 | 1:45.56 | 1:44.51 | 1:46.51 |
| 200 IM | 3 | 1:49.08 | 1:48.45 | 1:46.10 | 1:47.13 | 1:45.86 | 1:45.91 | 1:44.88 | 1:46.65 |
| 200 IM | 4 | 1:49.14 | 1:48.84 | 1:46.71 | 1:47.35 | 1:46.07 | 1:46.17 | 1:44.99 | 1:47.51 |
| 200 IM | 5 | 1:49.55 | 1:49.19 | 1:46.76 | 1:47.58 | 1:46.32 | 1:46.48 | 1:45.90 | 1:47.53 |
| 200 IM | 6 | 1:49.71 | 1:49.30 | 1:48.06 | 1:47.63 | 1:46.95 | 1:46.61 | 1:46.56 | 1:47.67 |
| 200 IM | 7 | 1:49.86 | 1:49.42 | 1:48.09 | 1:47.79 | 1:47.19 | 1:46.89 | 1:46.57 | 1:47.69 |
| 200 IM | 8 | 1:50.00 | 1:49.52 | 1:48.84 | 1:47.95 | 1:48.16 | 1:47.06 | 1:46.74 | 1:47.83 |
| 200 IM | 9 | 1:50.01 | 1:49.52 | 1:49.09 | 1:48.25 | 1:48.30 | 1:47.08 | 1:46.99 | 1:47.92 |
| 200 IM | 10 | 1:50.19 | 1:49.70 | 1:49.21 | 1:48.30 | 1:48.34 | 1:47.20 | 1:47.23 | 1:47.97 |
| 400 IM | 1 | 3:50.96 | 3:50.92 | 3:48.39 | 3:49.07 | 3:46.59 | 3:41.49 | 3:43.11 | 3:49.75 |
| 400 IM | 2 | 3:51.24 | 3:51.15 | 3:49.29 | 3:50.38 | 3:50.26 | 3:47.44 | 3:47.78 | 3:50.13 |
| 400 IM | 3 | 3:54.05 | 3:53.38 | 3:49.47 | 3:50.49 | 3:50.26 | 3:50.38 | 3:48.42 | 3:50.47 |
| 400 IM | 4 | 3:54.53 | 3:53.44 | 3:51.43 | 3:50.69 | 3:50.60 | 3:50.59 | 3:49.83 | 3:50.54 |
| 400 IM | 5 | 3:56.70 | 3:53.75 | 3:51.58 | 3:51.04 | 3:52.15 | 3:51.69 | 3:49.84 | 3:50.61 |
| 400 IM | 6 | 3:56.95 | 3:54.33 | 3:51.60 | 3:51.66 | 3:52.39 | 3:52.09 | 3:50.02 | 3:50.83 |
| 400 IM | 7 | 3:57.39 | 3:54.50 | 3:52.16 | 3:51.74 | 3:52.62 | 3:52.78 | 3:50.13 | 3:50.87 |
| 400 IM | 8 | 3:57.62 | 3:54.67 | 3:53.35 | 3:52.60 | 3:53.09 | 3:53.05 | 3:50.36 | 3:50.91 |
| 400 IM | 9 | 3:57.81 | 3:54.73 | 3:53.99 | 3:52.62 | 3:55.11 | 3:53.80 | 3:50.44 | 3:52.31 |
| 400 IM | 10 | 3:58.17 | 3:55.00 | 3:54.08 | 3:52.77 | 3:55.55 | 3:54.36 | 3:50.58 | 3:53.04 |
So many variables…. the biggest of which is the schedule and who cares about meets when. Teams with something to prove (ncsu and iu) go faster early in the year to build confidence and make a statement (no pun intended)… once they make that statement for a few years, they will back off and save up for NCAAs ala a texas or cal team. Also, maybe taper holds have been more precise than they have been in the past so conference meets will be faster too. But I can promise you one thing…. 8th place and 16th place at NCAAs this year, will be (overall) faster than it was last year.
People keep saying this, and ignoring Andrew’s frequent responses. NC State is swimming slower than last year, Cal and Texas are swimming faster than last year. It’s actually the OPPOSITE of what you thought was happening.
And remember – this is compared to last year, not compared to everyone else. Teams can’t just train harder and harder every year. There’s not an unlimited amount of ‘harder’ that a team can go…
This is why I love having Andrew and Kevin and Barry on our staff. They cut through a lot of posturing and assumptions with good, hard data.
Half of this could be accounted for by the fact that Dean Farris hasn’t swam a dual meet yet
Coaches are learning to train swimmers smarter and harder in season longer to prepare for when it really matters in March!! Expecting to see big drops this year at NCAAs
Conspicuously missing from all these stats is the number of meets held during the respective reporting periods. When did these teams start their meet season, who was the competition, which members of their team swam their primary events, etc.? For a valid comparison, all this information, and more, needs to be made available.
That data is available and linked to in the article. If you want numbers on how many swimmers on teams have competed in their top events so far, check here: https://staging.swimswam.com/ncaa-october-performance-who-is-faster-so-far/
(that data is a week old)
If you want data on qualify of competition, I don’t really have a strength of schedule metric, but many the top teams have swum each other so far. There was the Florida/Indiana/Texas meet. Virginia swam Auburn. Georgia swam Florida. The volume of repeated October swims is in line with previous years indicating a late start to the meet season isn’t a factor.
Here’s one possible explanation: Perhaps the top teams are training harder earlier in the season this year and their swimmers are more broken down than last year. Last year Texas lost dual meets to Indiana, Florida, Texas A&M, and NC State and then won the NCAA Championships. Perhaps, more teams are minimizing dual meet results in favor of the NCAA Championships. I will be interested to see if the results and conclusions above still hold after the November/December Invitationals where most everyone rests so they can make NCAA cuts. If the times are still slower then I think the conclusions above are reasonable. Otherwise, it may only reflect a diminished emphasis on October dual meet results this season.
P.S.… Read more »
FORMER TEXAS LONGHORN – read this, which I think might be of interest to you: https://staging.swimswam.com/ncaa-october-performance-who-is-faster-so-far/
All signs point to Texas being less broken down than last year, by admission, and by the data. So, that’s worth considering.
Also, just to clear the deck – Orange/White results weren’t officially submitted last year or this year (or included in this analysis, or the above October analysis).
Couple things. First, the Texas Orange White meet is not in the data from last year.
Second, Cal, Texas, USC and Florida’s returning swimmers have been much faster to this point than last year. Indiana has been about the same. Only NC State among top men’s teams has been noticeably slower to this point. See this article: https://staging.swimswam.com/ncaa-october-performance-who-is-faster-so-far/
I read the referenced article which suggests my explanation may not be valid and yes it appears Texas is not as broken down as last year. Still, let’s see where the times are after the November/December Invitationals because I think then is a better time time for an analysis of whether NCAA swimmers are slower or faster than before. I just think mid December might be an excellent time to update this analysis for a new article. Great work, by the way!
On the mile difference. At this point in the season the 1650 has not been offered in many meets. Out of the current top 10 times, 8 are out of two meets last weekend (representing 4 schools). A single other meet with some top distance guys last year offering a 1650 could have had a big impact on times at that point in the season.