Since David Nolan’s incredible, 4-record-setting performance (100 free, 100 back, 200 IM, 200 free relay) at the Pennsylvania High School State Meet, there has been a lot of buzz and opinions over what his chances are at making the 2012 London Olympic Team.
Though he’s the biggest-name high school swimmer around right now, he’s not the only one with a shot at the Olympics in 2012. In fact, by our count there’s 6 current high school students on the men’s side with a solid shot at the Olympics (and a few others with a real outside look). Be sure to cast your vote to the right.
So which one has the best chance at making the American Olympic team? David Nolan will be the pop-pick, given the noise he’s made in recent months, and by the fact that he’s probably the best swimmer of the group. But working against him is circumstance. In his best event, the 200 IM, he sits behind probably the two best swimmers in history, Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte, as well as Tyler Clary, who is one of the best swimmers in the world at the moment. His second-best event, the 100 back, is the American men’s deepest event, even after the retirement of Aaron Peirsol. But Nolan is extremely versatile, and his 100 fly, 100 free, and 200 free could all potentially final him at trials.
The less obvious pick is Clay Youngquist out of Michigan. Youngquist doesn’t have nearly the same chance at a roster spot in an individual event as Nolan does, but he has an outstanding 200 free time of 1:48.44 from last year’s National Championships that puts him on the short-list of candidates for a prelims spot in London.
Nolan might be the 100 back high school record-holder in short course, but Kip Darmody out of North Carolina was nearly a second better (54.90) last summer in long course. His chances might hinge heavily on whether or not Ryan Lochte adds the 100 back to his schedule. if Lochte swims the race at trials beyond just trying to earn a relay spot, then Darmody’s odds of making the squad decreases substantially.
Ryan Murphy is the youngest swimmer on the list, but that might be what makes him the most exciting pick. He’s only a sophomore in high school, but in 2010 was already the 14th ranked swimmer in the country in the 200 back with a 2:00.81. There’s a ton of huge names between him and the top two in this race, but his potential as he’s torn up the NAG record books is huge. It’s going to take about a 6-second drop in the next year to make the team, which is quite a task, but at 15 years old, it’s not undoable. If either Clary or Lochte opts out of the race (unlikely), the qualifying time moves into a much more doable 1:56-range.
University of Florida commit Nicholas Caldwell has been tearing up the middle-distance freestyles (in yards the 500, meters the 400). He might have the easiest route to the Olympics in an individual of anyone on the list, as the Americans are not the strongest in middle-distance free. His 3:50.51 from the Jr. Pan Pacs last year made him the 5th-fastest American, only 2.5 seconds off of a top-two spot that would get him to the Olympics.
And then probably the best pick, but the last one that would come to anyone’s mind: Arthur Frayler. The distance swimmer has the most big-meet experience, as a 2010 USA Pan Pac qualifier. At that meet, he placed 7th in the 1500, 8th in the 800, and 9th in the open water 10k. Chad La Tourette seems to be the strong favorite for the men’s 1500 at US Trials, but Frayler is among a group, that could include Peter Vanderkaay, who will be competing for the second spot. He also has a chance at a spot in the always-unpredictable open water discipline.
Or maybe there’s someone else who isn’t on our list who has a shot against a weak group (a breaststroker perhaps).
Be sure to vote at the right for who your favorite is, and sound off in the comments below why you voted the way you did!
Cordes committed to Arizona pretty early, I think back in October. He signed his NIL on Nov. signing day (i’m told his high school does all of the sports together in the Spring for a mock signing.) We know from our Jr. Natl team son and friend of Kevin that, although was upset at the departure of Busch, is upholding that commitment.
We hear Eric Hansen is a great coach and best of luck to Arizona.
Didn’t Elliott do that around when Illinois high school states was? I’m guessing he was going for the record there, so he would have been reasonably tapered (if they were close, I’m too lazy to look). I agree it doesn’t make sense to go to Cal, as he would be knocking potential scorers off the NCAA team.
Illinois HS state was February 25-26. NCSAs was March 15-19.
Hansen isn’t exactly devoid of experience coaching breaststrokers either…he never had the talent of the Pac-10 schools, but he developed a National Team breaststroker in Ashley Wanland. Along with DeMont, there’s still great coaching in Tucson.
At any rate, Cordes signed his NLI on April 13 to swim at Arizona. It would be odd for him to do so that long after Busch’s move was announced, and change his mind now. If it happened that way, I think Arizona would have to be opening some investigations into how it went down…
Video of Cordes’ signing:
http://www.neuquatv.org/2011/04/spring-athletic-signings-2011/
Elliott went 1:55 at NCSAs and i don’t think that was his (or Cordes’) taper meet-so I don’t really see how Higgins is the favorite. I agree that Cordes may end up being a 100 guy-but his low 156 at jrs was pretty nice. Three different body types too. I look forward to seeing them in the future.
It does make more sense for Cordes to go to USC and train with Salo when Higgins is already going to Cal-and Salo’s relays would be great with him…although AZ has always pumped out some stellar breaststrokers. Im sure their new coaching (w DeMont) is going to be fine.
If Cordes did go to Cal, that would create an epic rivalry for relay spots (after Koon leaves). I think Higgins has the best shot at the Olympics, after his 1:55 at Y nationals, and the training group. Cordes will have a great at any of those places, but seems to be more of a 100 breaststroker, and might not have the power to compete yet. On the other hand, it’s possible Florida would put more emphasis on Elliott making it. But in the end, I don’t think any of them make it.
Agreed…I expect to see these high schoolers in 2016, more likely. This high school class is exceptional but with all of the post grad athletes it seems unlikely to grab a spot in 2012. I hope they just concentrate on NCAAs and getting stronger. I see Nolan as the only “real” contender.
I heard Cordes is decommitting from AZ and going to Cal or USC…true? Eddie Reese could’ve used him, too.
Last I heard was that Cordes was staying in Arizona, albeit that was shortly after Busch announced his decision, so his plans could have definitely changed since then.
My guess? None of them make it. Not that they aren’t all fantastic swimmers, but high school swimmers almost never make Olympic teams on the men’s side anymore. The last ones to do it were Phelps and Piersol in 2000. (15 and 17) Its just too hard to compete with older, stronger, more experienced college and postgrad athletes, especially when there are only two spots available. Youngquist might have a shot just because the top 6 go in the 200 free. But I bet it takes a 1:46 to make the relay, so thats still a two second drop off an already outstanding HS time. Will he beat Phelps, Lochte, Walters, Berens, Vanderkaay, Dwyer, McLean or Dax Hill? I mean… Read more »
Kevin Cordes (17 yr old) Fastest 100 br time-tall, skinny, young. Seems to have no ceiling. Improving all the time. Christian Higgins, still chasing time from “the suit” but strong. Along with Elliott, the best 1-2-3 breaststrokers to come out in a long time.
Matt Elliot? 2:14 long course with a weak group of American qualifiers