Note: Pan Pacs rules allow each country to enter as many swimmers as they want in prelims, but only two can swim in the A-final and a third in the B final. Keep that in mind as we will not pick more than two swimmers for a country in our top 6 picks.
50 Freestyle
The men’s sprints at the 2014 Pan Pacific Championships are as notable for who isn’t swimming them as much as who is. 50 free world leader Cesar Cielo is skipping Pan Pacs to begin his short course season early in preparation for December’s World Championships. His Brazilian teammate Matheus Santana is attending the Youth Olympic Games instead. Australian icon Eamon Sullivan, ranked 5th in the world, retired last month after lengthy injury battles. South African legend Roland Schoeman is skipping the meet, choosing to focus on the Commonwealth Games instead as he and other South African stars are locked in a standoff with their swimming federation over travel funding.
But even with all of those notable absences, there is no shortage of intriguing storylines in the meet’s two fastest races. Not far behind Cielo in the World Ranks is Bruno Fratus, seemingly the next in a great line of Brazilian sprinters. Fratus has been as fast as 21.45 this year, and that was back in April, giving him time to kickstart his training and re-taper for these Pan Pacific Championships.
On the other hand, the U.S.’s Anthony Ervin continues to make his doubters look ridiculous after running away with the American National title last week at age 33. (Everybody point and laugh at this silly sportswriter who picked Ervin to miss the Pan Pacs squad this year). Ervin is one of the great stories in all of swimming right now – he won gold as a young man at the 2000 Olympics in Sydney, retired at age 22 and took nearly a decade away from the sport before picking up right where he left off, making the 2012 Olympic team and placing 5th.
The spotlight tends to often be on his American teammate Nathan Adrian, the reigning Olympic gold medalist in the 100 free. Adrian is iconic, memorable, an American fan-favorite, but he’ll have something to prove after an odd national meet where his times were well off what many fans projected for him after an outstanding regular season. Was Adrian saving a taper? How much more does he have in the tank? And will he have the sheer speed to compete in the 50 even while training to extend speed over a 100?
Australia counters the Americans with their own dynamic duo: James Magnussen and Cameron McEvoy. Magnussen, like Adrian, is one of the premier 100 freestylers in the world, but manages to pack speed pretty well into the 50. McEvoy is the rising youngster, with a high ceiling and intense athleticism. McEvoy beat Magnussen in this race at the Commonwealth Games, but it’s hard to gauge how prepared the two were taper-wise as neither broke 22 seconds in the final.
Both Australia and the U.S. have a third swimmer who could make noise (though they have to pass a teammate to make a finals spot based on the Pan Pacs ‘two-per-country’ limit), Matt Abood for the Aussies and Cullen Jones for the Americans. A few more names to watch: Trinidad & Tobago’s Commonwealth Games finalist George Bovell. Japan’s Shinri Shioura, ranked just outside the world’s top 10. The Chinese are always a bit mysterious with their official roster, but it’s likely Ning Zetao (22.0 in June) will be among their entrants. Canada features young 6-foot-7 national champ Yuri Kisil, who seems to have a lot of development potential as well.
Pick-6: My top six predictions (with season-bests)
- Bruno Fratus (BRA) – 21.45
- Anthony Ervin (USA) – 21.55
- Nathan Adrian (USA) – 21.66
- Cameron McEvoy (AUS) – 21.94
- James Magnussen (AUS) – 21.77
- Shinri Shioura (JPN) – 21.88
100 Freestyle
The general consensus among fans seems to be that James Magnussen has the most talent in the pool for this longer sprint race, but fan opinion is still divided over whether he’ll win. Once a rising star in a country desperately looking to follow up Ian Thorpe’s legacy, Magnussen has developed an unfortunate reputation as a swimmer who struggles under pressure, a reputation, fair or not, that comes largely from his loss to Nathan Adrian in that Olympic final in London.
Still, it’s hard not to see Magnussen as the favorite here. He’s the defending World Champ in the event, sits #1 in the world ranks and led an Aussie 1-2-3 sweep of the medals at the Commonwealth Games. Adrian, on the other hand, followed up a fantastic regular season with a head-scratching U.S. Nationals that saw him fail to hit any season-bests (though he still beat a star-studded, though surprisingly slow championship final in the 100).
The question is whether there’s more pressure or less pressure for Magnussen swimming in his home country. The answers seem to lie in his results at recent National Championships, where he’s looked very comfortable in a home pool (though Sydney is his preference, as he’s made quite clear).
The rest of that three-headed monster from down under is Cameron McEvoy and Tommaso D’Orsogna. McEvoy is the exciting youngster, still just 20 years old and the winner of the Australian National title in an upset over Magnussen. D’Orsogna picked up three medals at Commonwealths, but couldn’t crack 49, a barrier he’ll have to get back under if he wants to place highly in front of the home crowd.
The fight for the second American spot beside Adrian will be a good one. Second at U.S. Nationals was Ryan Lochte, coming off that knee injury particularly well in Irvine. Lochte won gold in the 200 at Pan Pacs in 2010, and appears to be making a solid transition into more sprint-based events late in his career. The second-fastest American time of the year, though, belongs to Anthony Ervin from the preliminaries, and he’s eligible to swim this race despite falling to 5th in the U.S. National final. Jimmy Feigen just cracked 49 to earn a Pan Pacs bid, but he’ll need more speed to final, as will backstroking giant Matt Grevers. And of course there’s Olympic superstar and do-everything superman Michael Phelps, who faded to 7th at nationals but put up the meet’s third-fastest overall time with his morning swim. The trick for Phelps will be extending a taper on what is a much lighter training base than he’s ever had, plus getting over that finals dropoff he had in nearly every race at U.S. Nationals.
Outside of the U.S. and Australia are more contenders. Chinese national record-holder Ning Zetao is probably better here than in the 50, and ranks 8th in the world this year. Just .01 behind in the ranks is South Korea’s Park Tae Hwan, better known for his prowess in the 200 and 400 frees, but who is branching out into all sorts of unique events this season as South Korea’s most famous swimming celebrity of all-time. The Brazilians have a pair of former NCAA Champions to lean on, Marcelo Chierighini and Joao de Lucca. That Auburn-Louisville duo, both 2013 graduates, will try to fill the shoes of the absent Cesar Cielo and Matheus Santana.
Also keep an eye on Japan’s Shinri Shioura as well as Canada’s Yuri Kisil, both relative youngsters who represent their country’s best hopes for a sprint medal.
Pick-6: My top six predictions (with season-bests)
- James Magnussen (AUS) – 47.59
- Nathan Adrian (USA) – 48.08
- Cameron McEvoy (AUS) – 47.65
- Ning Zetao (CHN) – 48.41
- Park Tae Hwan (KOR) – 48.42
- Anthony Ervin (USA) – 48.71
Park scratched the 200 Free from his program where he was seeded 2nd. Not sure what’s going on there, but I’ve seen and heard some speculation that he may scratch the meet altogether. Might want to re-examine who you have as your 6th place finish there.
We’ve been running previews for the past week or so. If you check the date, you’ll see we published these picks last Wednesday, before psych sheets had even been released, much less official scratches announced.
Has anyone noticed how quick Phelps can be in the free? We know in the past he has been very quick in relays but never concentrated on the free sprints due to his gruelling schedule of mainly longer distance events. But if he can fix his turns he will be right up there in the 100 free. He was second quickest in the prelims but then misjudged the wall in the final and got NO speed off the wall. Nonetheless after turning last at the 50, he caught up and almost finished much higher up. That shows how quick he can really go. Also in the 200IM, he was trailing Lochte quite a bit at the 150 and then blasted… Read more »
Yes, i think Phelps can be much faster in free events. But medal in Rio?I think that ship has sailed… The only way i see him gain a medal is(for some way) the whole field get very slow.It will be hard for him to beat his home peers(Adrian,Feigen…) and the World has some nasty young sprinters rising… even with him at his best in 100free he will need something he never had:FRONT SPEED.
It s easy to develop frontspeed when you are young, but is very hard when you are getting older.
Besides smart training, good start and breakout, I think front speed may have more to do with the amount of fast twitch muscle fibers one possesses.
In order to medal in 100 free in Rio, Phelps will have to beat all but one of these sprinters at US trials:
Adrian, Feigen, Dressel, Stubbelfield, Earvin, and who knows which other US young sprinter that will prop up in two years.
And then he will have to beat all but two of these sprinters in Rio:
Magnussen, Mcevoy, Santana, Manaudau, Morozov, Verschuren, Agnel,etc.
I think he has infinitely better chance to win medal in 100 fly and 200 IM than in 100 free.
Don’t be surprised guys. Look at Ervin winning the 50 last week? He’s what…32?
With Phelps concentrating on the sprints there is every chance he can be top 2 for US. He has just made a comeback with much less training and look how quick he was, particularly in the prelims. He was only 4 tenths off Adrian in the prelims.
I’m convinced one of his goals he’s keeping secret is to medal in the 100 free come Rio or next year…….he’s quick enough and with more training he can easily do it
I basically agree with Ddias and Aswimfan. He IS fast, thanks to his underwaters and great back half speed, but arguably in Rio it will take a 47 mid or low to medal, assuming he survives US trials … It seems unlikely to me. Then again he could pull a “Thorpie” (Thorpe got bronze in Athens against all odds)
I agree that he will struggle to qualify for an individual spot on the US team. I wouldn’t jinx him with “doing a Thorpie”, because given his age, that would mean having a very underwhelming comeback with a load of injuries. Much better if he concentrates on 100m fly where an individual medal is a distinct possibility.
I don’t believe in “jinxing” people 😀 Besides, their comeback stories are very, very different.
Certainly valuable for relays
I see Michael Phelps making the US World Champs team.
He will. which other americans that can beat him to third place in both 100 fly and 200 IM?
Wow Magnussen is fast!! Hope Nathan comes out on top somehow.
Does anyone know where the Pan Pac team is right now? Training camp???? When do they arrive in Australia (if they aren’t already there). Are there any photos or videos of the team at camp?
US team in Training Camp in Brisbane. They arrived yesterday I think (Wednesday, Australian time). Quite a few photos posted on twitter and Instagram by the individual swimmers.
Thank you, Zanna. I am hoping SwimSwam will begin posting photos and articles leading up to Pan Pacs directly from Australia. Hint hint.
That would be great!
I predict that Nathan Adrian and James Magnussen will battle it out for the 100m crown
As for the 50m I am rooting for the underdogs Cullen Jones and Trini swimmer George Bovell.
Come on Jared, don’t be too hard on yourself now. You did say Ervin was a wild card 😀
I knew right as I picked them that he’d prove me wrong. But you make bold predictions, you have to stick with them! 🙂
Quick question for Braden and the Swimswam staff.
Will you guys be compiling a twitter list for the US Pan Pacs team such as the very nice one done by Tony Carroll last year?
Also any coverage of the Americans training camp in the works since they’ve already arrived in Brisbane and have started prepping for next week’s competition… Thx!