Every year older is another year closer to the end for the Great Michael Phelps. And while swimmers have shown the ability to compete at an elite level well into their 20’s (and sometimes ever 30’s) in the modern era, every birthday is significant for Phelps given that he’s put a hard-cap of 30 on his competitive swimming career.
Is it greedy of me to wish that Phelps was only turning 25 today instead of 26? If today he were only 25, then he might give more consideration to swimming at the 2016 Games in Rio.
Are we not satisfied with the 16 Olympic medals (14 gold) that he’s already won: a total that he will surely add to next summer in London? Like it or not, he’s still the biggest name there is in swimming. This was evidenced by the fact that it was he (not Ryan Lochte, Rebecca Soni, or Nathan Adrian) that NBC’s Today Show invited in on their official 2011 Olympic Day.
The biggest fear about losing Phelps is for our American relays. Yes, the United States has enough depth. But Phelps is the only swimmer on our roster who we know we can count on to be a huge anchor-point for every single relay.
Phelps has become very polarizing in the swimming community in recent years, but everyone deserves their day, and today is his. Today we should thank Mr. Phelps for what he has done for our sport and our industry. He has revolutionized swimming. The Athlete Partership Agreement that funds so many professional swimmers, the increased web and even television swimming coverage, and many of the other programs that help to grow our sport and increase our respect within the sporting community is a result of Michael Phelps. Heck, he even got the great Shaq into the pool, a feat that not many could accomplish (mostly because he’s bigger than any other human being on earth).
He will add another year and turn 27 shortly before the 2012 Olympics, and that one will hurt even more. Maybe father time will give us a reprieve, and June 30th, 2012 just won’t happen. That would give us four more years to decide what to do with our sport after Phelps is gone.
Interesting point about the weather…we forget that much of the swimming community races a lot of their meets outside…and not California outside. Take Cielo, for example. I don’t think he’s raced inside yet this year, and most of it has been done outdoors in the Brazilian winter. He finally got into some decent weather in Paris, and we saw how that worked out for him.
part of the optimism comes from the fact that most events are significantly faster this year than last. For example, there are already 30 men under 49 in the 100m free, when there were 31 all of last year. In the women’s 200 free there have already been more sub157s. Many events look have set up times that are faster, some significantly so, than last year.
144.80 was the fastest 200m free in the world last year. Many people probably dont even think that time will medal. In the m200m IM and w200m breast, Lochte and SOni really only have to improve about half a second. You also have to consider things like pool and environment. China’s newly designed pool… Read more »
Judging by many WRs (I counted 10 WRS!!) that people predicted to fall, I think people have forgotten how difficult and rare new LCM WRs were during normal times, especially in a non olympic year.
2007 was different because Phelps was in his highest peak (even compared to Beijing) and the introduction of Speedo FS pro (which was vast improvement compared to the previous generation of suits), as well as the first extensive use of underwater stroke.
And it should be especially tough today where ALL WRs (except for 1,500) were swum in rubber suits.
Do people not remember that not one single LCM WR was broken in the past year and a half?
people pointed out how… Read more »
I dont think that any relay marks will fall. I agree that the winning time for the 4×2 free will be about 744, with 743 a possibility. Beyond that, no relay marks are going to fall for an extremely long time (We’d be hard pressed to have a men’s 4x1free under 310 or men’s medley under 330). I actually think the relay marks will be the last WRs to fall, as they are the work of 4 suit aided swimmers in short distances (where they assisted the most).
I could -see- the Thorpe/Biedermann mark falling, but it’ll take one hell of a performance, if you take a look at the splits. Obviously no one is going to break that record… Read more »
I think all women’s WR (except for 200 breast) is safe, even the 800 FR and with Australia women living up to their potential. 7:41-42 is just way too fast. I think the winners will swim around 7:44-45
And unfortunately, I think both of Biedermann’s WRs will survive the onslaught from Tae Hwan Park and Sun Yang, although I REALLY hope that the 400 WR goes.
The 200 IM WR might not even fall, seeing Phelps and Lochte have not been convincing lately.
I hope I am wrong, but I cannot see more than three WRs broken in Shanghai.
CalBearFan, you forget something:
Cielo always needs a “(Baby)sitter coach”, Phelps hate it!
Braden Keith,
i was reading here:
http://forum.collegeswimming.com/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=5592
It s time for discussion!
I think on the men s side, 50 and 100back, 200IM and 1500 free WR s willl fall down.
In the women side, just 200breast and(maybe…) 4×200 free relay.
Any thoughs?
Ddias- Haha! I doubt that considering a certain sprinter decided the auburn programme wasn’t for him anymore….hmmmm.
Not sure what you mean by “Phelps has become very polarizing in the swimming community”. I guess not everybody likes him, but everyone ought to respect him for everything he has achieved throughout his career.