Picks: American 1-2 Punch is Unbeatable in Women’s 800 Relay

With psych sheets expected to be released today, we move into our 800 free relay previews.

This was a three-team runaway in 2011, but things stack up to make a much more competitive field this year. For all of our race-by-race previews, click here. Be sure to enter our relay pick-em contest in the upper right-hand corner of this screen!

1. USA Actual: 7:46.14 Aggregate: 7:43.68

Missy Franklin (1:55.06)
Dana Vollmer (1:56.47)
Lauren Perdue (1:57.75)
Allison Schmitt (1:54.40)

Breakdown: The American women have seen a lot of shakeup in this 800 free relay from last year at the World Championships. The only two returning pieces are Missy Franklin and Allison Schmitt. That’s a huge two pieces to return, though, as they represent the world’s fastest time in 2011 (Franklin) and fastest-to-date in 2012 (Schmitt). Dana Vollmer should be in a much better position to perform in the 200 than she was at Trials, so a 1:56-low or a 1:55-high on a rolling start should be in her future.

The conundrum is who will be chosen to take the 4th spot. Perdue has the inside-track, via a 4th-place finish at Trials, and seems to have the most upside. There will be some trepidation about her back, however. Shannon Vreeland, though, had the fastest textile time coming into Trials, and was just .15 behind Perdue at Trials. Those two, along with Anderson, are largely unproven at this level, though Anderson has the benefit of experience, as a part of this relay at the 2009 World Championships. The best guess is that all three will swim with Vollmer, who will long be done with her individual races, to give the coaches another data point to look at. Even that relay from Trials aggregates at a 7:51, which still would have been the best prelims relay in 2011, so safely navigating prelims wouldn’t be a big concern.

2. Australia Actual: 7:47.42 Aggregate: 7:45.44

Bronte Barratt (1:55.74)
Melanie Schlanger (1:56.73)
Brittany Elmslie (1:57.24)
Kylie Palmer (1:55.73)

Breakdown: The Aussies might have the best “B” relay in the world, thanks to impressive depth in this 200 free, but B relays don’t win gold medals. Palmer and Barratt have a lot of work to do if the Aussies want to catch the Americans in this relay; they don’t need to be better bookends than Schmitt and Franklin, but they need to be better bookends than they were in 2011. Brittany Elmslie, just like in the 400 free relay, will be sort of up-in-the-air. She’s very young, but swam very well at Trials. Jade Neilsen may get the nod if the coaches don’t think Elmslie is ready.

3. China Actual: 7:47.66 Aggregate: 7:50.97

Shija Wang (1:57.26)
Pang Jiayang (1:58.60)
Qian Chen (1:57.37)
Yi Tang (1:57.74)

Breakdown: I’m not going to even attempt to guess which relay China will really use in this 800. Yi Tang isn’t listed as one of the 6 on the official list, but that doesn’t mean she can’t be entered, and there’s no way she’s left off. Pang Jiayang is terrible on a flat-start, but still somehow split a 1:56 at worlds. Wang is the best this year, and Chen had a pretty good leadoff in Shanghai. Whatever ends up coming from this relay, know this much: the first three legs will average around a 1:57.0, and Tang on the anchor should be better than 1:56. There was such a huge gap at World’s (5 seconds) that there’s a lot of cushion in this race.

4. Great Britain Actual 7:53.51 Aggregate: 7:50.89

Caitlin McClatchey (1:57.45)
Rebecca Turner (1:57.65)
Joanne Jackson (1:57.92)
Rebecca Adlington (1:57.87)

Breakdown: Great Britain’s chances in this relay may have gotten a huge shot-in-the-arm at their second-chance Nationals in June. There, Rebecca Adlington snuck ahead of Joanne Jackson to earn a spot on this 800 free relay. I still think Jackson will swim this relay in finals, but Adlington will have to be Great Britain’s hammer if this relay wants to medal. We know how good she is in the 400, and have to imagine Adlington can go a 1:56 or maybe even a 1:55 on a relay start. Heck, it feels like she could probably go better than a 1:58.68 on the back half of her 400, if she really wanted to. Her personal best is a 1:56.66 in 2008 from Nationals.

5. France Actual: 7:52.22 Aggregate: 7:49.31

Camille Muffat (1:54.66)
Coralie Balmy (1:58.14)
Charlotte Bonnet (1:58.28)
Ophelie-Cyrielle Etienne (1:58.23)

Breakdown: Just as we say there was a lot of cushion for the Chinese to get bronze, look out for Camille Muffat. Her heart didn’t really seem to be all that into this relay last year at Worlds, where she led off in just a 1:57.83. Even on an average swim, she can take three seconds off of that time in London. Considering the ages of their last two legs (Bonnet is 17 and Etienne is 21), they could make up some ground too. I don’t think that they quite get to the Chinese, unless of course China comes back toward them. Look for about a 7:48-high for the French. The French may try to let Muffat rest in prelims of this race – so Margaux Farrell or Mylene Lazare (or both) needs to have the swim-of-her life to make sure they get to finals.

6. Hungary Actual 7:52.39 Aggregate: 7:52.29

Agnes Mutina (1:57.40)
Evelyn Verraszto (1:58.27)
Katinka Hosszu (1:58.94)
Zsu Jakabos (1:57.68)

Breakdown: There’s not a whole lot of speed in the Hungarian system, but there is plenty of strength and power, which makes this somewhat of an underrated relay. They took 5th at Worlds last year, and it’s hard to see them giving up much ground on that position with Katinka Hosszu and Zsu Jakabos overall swimming much faster than they did last season. Of course, those improvements haven’t really shown up in their 200 freestyles yet, but we have to trust they’ll be there when it counts. This relay could easily see four 1:57’s, with at least two of them “low,”  this relay could sneak toward a 7:50 or better.

7. Canada Actual: 7:53.62 Aggregate: 7:51.90

Barbara Jardin (1:57.34)
Julia Wilkinson (1:58.49)
Sam Cheverton (1:57.98)
Brittany MacLean (1:58.09)

Breakdown: Barbara Jardin is ranked in the top 15 in the world this year in this event, and the rest of the group is pretty well-balanced. This relay failed to final in 2008, but the advent of Jardin, Cheverton, and MacLean since then, to go with Julia Wilkinson, makes them much better. This isn’t Wilkinson’s best race, but she’s definitely a gamer and will fight to the wire. MacLean had an outstanding split at Worlds – a 1:57.5 that was easily Canada’s best. They’ll need other swimmers to step up if they want to improve on their 7th-place standing.

8. Italy Actual: 7:52.90 Aggregate: 7:52.78

Alice Mizzau (1:58.39)
Alice Nesti (1:59.50)
Diletta Carli (1:59.44)
Federica Pellegrini (1:55.45)

Breakdown: This relay reminds me much of the French squad from 2011. Federica Pellegrini was the World Champion in the individual 200 free, but only split a 1:58.0 in prelims as this squad finished 13th. But it looked like a whole different relay at May’s European Championships, where they cruised to a title. Pellegrini split a 1:55.3, and her three young teammates were all under two minutes. This squad won’t medal, but should be able to final if they can do that again. The question is will Pellegrini have enough gas left this year to be a 1:55 or 1:54 again. She’ll be done with her two individual events by this point, so she should put full effort into the relay. All three of her teammates were lifetime bests either at Italy’s Trials or the European Championships.