Projecting The Cut Line: 2025 NCAA Women’s DI Championships

2025 Women’s NCAA Swimming and Diving Championships

• March 19-22, 2025
• Weyerhaeuser King County Aquatics Center — Federal Way, Washington
• Short Course Yards (25 yards)
• Meet Central
• Pre-Scratch Psych Sheets
• Live Stream

Note: Pre-cut psych sheets are not final. Two years ago, there was an error identified in the seed time of a UNC 100 freestyler, which changed the projections. Final selections will be released on Wednesday, Mar. 5 in the afternoon. Any changes that happen before that release will change the math. Any change after the release of the post-cut psych sheets—such as a swimmer scratching the meet, which often happens—will pull in the next alternate regardless of event. 

Numbers and Projections thanks to Andrew Mering 

Update 3/4/25, 5:20 pm: A spreadsheet error duplicated two swimmers, Erika Pelaez and Maddy Huggins, in the data. Accounting for these duplicates, the cut line now falls one line into row 38 and Grace Sheble and Liberty Williams, who were the first alternates, are now the last two into the championships.

The NCAA released the pre-selection psych sheets for the 2025 Women’s NCAA Swimming & Diving Championships on Tuesday, Mar. 4, showing teams’ bidded entries for next month’s championships in Federal Way, Washington. 

This year’s projected cut-line falls one line into row 38, one from last year’s championships, where the cut line fell four lines into row 37. 2024 saw a dramatic decrease from the previous two years. In 2023, one swimmer on row 39 was selected and five swimmers on row 39 were invited in 2022. 

The decrease these past two seasons implies that fewer swimmers rank in the top 37 or so in multiple individual events than they did in previous years, so it took more swimmers to “get through” those higher lines. 

This year, the last two swimmers to get into the meet are Grace Sheble and Liberty Williams. After correcting the spreadsheet error, the first alternate is still an NC State swimmer: Casuandra Moses. 

Selection Process 

1. 31 of the men’s spots and 41 of the women’s spots at the NCAA Championships are set aside for divers. Divers qualify for the NCAA Championships at Zone meets closer to the meet. That leaves 235 men’s spots and 281 for women. 
2. Every ‘A’ cut swum this season is added. 
3. The next fastest swimmers in each event are added until every event has the same number of entries. For example, if the 50 free were to have the most ‘A’ cuts of any individual event with ten, then every other event would get swimmers with the top ten fastest times added to the meet. 
4. Finally, one entry is added to each event to keep the entries per event even. This process is repeated until all of the swimming spots are filled. As more rows are added, swimmers will double and triple up on events. The #1 seed in the 200 backstroke might be the #15 seed in the 100 backstroke — as the 15th row of swimmers is added to each event, she’ll be added to the 100 backstroke list but will no take up another one of the 281 invite spots as she already has her official invite. 
5. The final row of swimmers added won’t come out even. In the final row, the swimmers with entry times closest to the NCAA ‘A’ cut will get added first, and when the 281st woman is added, the process stops. So, the 100 fly could have 38 women and the 200 fly 39 — that would mean the 39th 200 flyer was closer to the NCAA ‘A’ cut than the 39th 100 flyer and therefore won the “tiebreaker” for the final spot. 

Teams are capped at 18 swimmers and divers for their championship rosters. Virginia, the four-time defending champions, has 18 individual qualifiers without divers. The team has already announced they won’t have a diving program next year; however, if the team wants to bring senior All-American diver Lizzy Kaye to this year’s championships, a swimmer will be cut from the roster. Last season, Kaye finished 8th on the 3-meter board and 10th on the 1-meter. She earned 18 points, the sixth-most of any Cavalier at the 2024 NCAA Championships.

Virginia is the only school that’s already hit the maximum roster limit. Texas has the second-most individual qualifiers above the projected cutline at 15. Florida and Louisville are tied for third with 14 individual qualifiers each. 

2025 Cut Line Projections 

• Nerd out: see the full ordering of swimmers on the pre-cut sheets.

Individual Qualifiers By Team

Projected Alternates 

The projected cut-line falls five lines into row 37. Again, the NCAA tiebreaker comes into play to determine who is selected. The NCAA uses a formula to determine how close the swimmer is to the NCAA ‘A’ cut in their event to break ties, a change made six years ago. The mathematical formula is the ‘A’ cut divided by the swimmer’s time, with the highest percentage (or closest relative time to the ‘A’ cut) winning the tiebreak. This formula allows them to compare across events. 

The second tie-breaker, which is relevant if alternates are tied for the same ratio, is based on the swimmer’s second-best event. 

Projected Invitees