Based on the math that has been triple-vindicated by Krista Kezbers, Tait Pinnow, and myself (thanks to both for their help), we can confidently say that the men’s NCAA selection, barring any changes between today and tomorrow’s expected release, will take every swimmer ranked 29th or higher (including a tie in the 400 IM for 29th), plus the five top swimmers on the 30th line.
As compared to the women’s line, this is not quite as clean. In the women’s meet, exactly all 39 top rows were taken. In the men’s line, the tie will have to be broken.
In the event of a tie, that tie is broken based on whichever swims are closest to their NCAA Championship (not overall NCAA) record. The formula is basically: NCAA CR/Time = Percentage, and whoever has the highest number wins.
Straddling the Cut Line
Below is a chart of those swimmers who are right on the cut line. The 7 who are not crossed off are the 7 who are relevant in the discussion as they’ve not already qualified higher.
Based on the math below, Kentucky’s Brandon Flynn, Texas’ Aaron Gustafson, Utah’s Kristian Kron, Virginia Tech’s Brandon Fiala, and Texas’ Imri Ganiel all got in. The Longhorn men had two on that 30th line, and they both snuck in. Kentucky wasn’t quite as lucky – Flynn got in, but senior Eric Bruck is the first alternate.
Bruck will still swim in Kentucky’s relays, making him one of the few who can say they’ll represent two different teams at the NCAA Championships. He was an NCAA qualifier at Clemson before that program was cut.
| 50 free | Eric Bruck | Kentucky | 19.47 | 94.86% |
| 1650 free | Brandon Flynn | Kentucky | 15:03.42 | 95.65% |
| 100 back | Aaron Gustafson | Texas | 46.57 | 95.77% |
| 200 back | Kristian Kron | Utah | 1:42.41 | 95.28% |
| 100 breast | Imri Ganiel | Texas | 53.23 | 95.25% |
| 100 fly | Pedro Coutinho | Louisville | – | 94.85% |
| 200 IM | Brandon Fiala | Virginia Tech | 1:44.71 | 95.97% |
Full List of Expected NCAA Qualifiers is Below
Note that this is all unofficial until the NCAA’s official release on Wednesday.
| McKee, Anton | Alabama |
| Hornikel, BJ | Alabama |
| Gkolomeev, Kristian | Alabama |
| Oslin, Connor | Alabama |
| Romanov, Pavel | Alabama |
| Cordes, Kevin | Arizona |
| Smith, Giles | Arizona |
| Steel, Kevin | Arizona |
| Tandy, Brad | Arizona |
| Barber, Matt | Arizona |
| Porter, Andrew | Arizona |
| Friedemann, Mitchell | Arizona |
| Rowan, Sam | Arizona |
| Solis, Eric | Arizona |
| Meyer, Michael | Arizona |
| Coci, Alex | Arizona State |
| Chierighini, Marcelo | Auburn |
| Darmody, Kyle | Auburn |
| Patching, Joe | Auburn |
| Grothe, Zane | Auburn |
| Duderstadt, Michael | Auburn |
| Mendes, Arthur | Auburn |
| Disney-May, James | Auburn |
| Palmer, Hayden | Brigham Young |
| Glenn, Thomas | Brown |
| Fierro, Sonny | Cal Poly |
| Murphy, Ryan | California |
| Pebley, Jacob | California |
| Messerschmidt, Tyler | California |
| Williams, Trent | California |
| Cox, Tony | California |
| Stubblefield, Seth | California |
| Katis, Chuck | California |
| Prenot, Josh | California |
| Bagshaw, Jeremy | California |
| Hamilton, Will | California |
| Cobleigh, Hunter | California |
| Gutierrez, Long | California |
| Hinshaw, Adam | California |
| Fleming, Shayne | California |
| Tarczynski, Marcin | California |
| Gimondi, Fabio | California |
| Quinn, Kevin | Columbia University |
| Jakl, David | Columbia University |
| Huxhold, Mitchell | CSUB |
| Zupan, Nejc | Dartmouth |
| Bunch, Dylan | Denver |
| Knight, Hunter | Duke |
| Cepulis, Rokas | East Carolina |
| Frayler, Arthur | Florida |
| Rousseau, Sebastien | Florida |
| D’Arrigo, Mitch | Florida |
| Solaeche-Gomez, Eduardo | Florida |
| Cieslak, Marcin | Florida |
| Signorin, Connor | Florida |
| Main, Corey | Florida |
| Elliott, Matt | Florida |
| Omana, Carlos | Florida |
| Werner, Pawel | Florida |
| Wallace, Dan | Florida |
| Curby, Matt | Florida |
| Deborde, Bradley | Florida |
| Blyzinskyj, Jack | Florida |
| Sankovich, Pavel | Florida State |
| Knight, Connor | Florida State |
| Murray, Paul | Florida State |
| Coombs, Jason | Florida State |
| Rogers, Kevin | Florida State |
| Fink, Nicolas | Georgia |
| Kalisz, Chase | Georgia |
| Gemmell, Andrew | Georgia |
| Koski, Matias | Georgia |
| Reynolds, Doug | Georgia |
| Stewart, Tynan | Georgia |
| Freeman, Will | Georgia |
| Dale, Taylor | Georgia |
| Clark, Pace | Georgia |
| Markham, Jared | Georgia |
| Powell, Garrett | Georgia |
| Van Duijn, Nico | Georgia Tech |
| Kosic, Andrew | Georgia Tech |
| Ronda, Eric | Harvard |
| Goicochea, Victor | Hawaii |
| dePaula, Paulo | Hawaii |
| Ress, Eric | Indiana |
| Miller, Cody | Indiana |
| Wells, James | Indiana |
| Schmuhl, Steve | Indiana |
| Rhoads, Dustin | Iowa |
| Flynn, Brandon | Kentucky |
| De Lucca, Joao | Louisville |
| Chastain, Kameron | Louisville |
| Tarasevich, Grigory | Louisville |
| Dahlia, Thomas | Louisville |
| Blondell, Caryle | Louisville |
| Bray, Addison | Louisville |
| Greene, Aaron | louisville |
| Greeff, Frank | LSU |
| Jaeger, Connor | Michigan |
| Bosch, Dylan | Michigan |
| Wynalda, Michael | Michigan |
| Whitaker, Kyle | Michigan |
| Nielsen, Anders Lie | Michigan |
| Funk, Richard | Michigan |
| Abdel Khalik, Hassaan | Michigan |
| Glanda, Justin | Michigan |
| Ortiz, Bruno | Michigan |
| Wojciechowski, John | Michigan |
| Brumm, Pete | Michigan |
| Ryan, Sean | Michigan |
| Kamiya, Ryutaro | Michigan |
| Toomey, Derek | Minnesota |
| Van Swol, Kyler | Minnesota |
| Smith, CJ | Minnesota |
| Maly, Jakub | Minnesota |
| Tierney, Sam | Missouri |
| Kozlowskij, Igor | Missouri |
| Griffin, Carter | Missouri |
| Mosley, Logan | Missouri |
| Groome, Eegan | Missouri |
| Le, Paul | Missouri State |
| Kalnins, Uvis | Missouri State |
| McCurdy, Christian | NC State |
| Coetzer, Stephen | NC State |
| Bilis, Simonas | NC State |
| Miesfeld, Barrett | NC State |
| Schiellerup, Andreas | NC State |
| Boffa, Jonathan | NC State |
| Bishop, Ian | NC State |
| Williams, David | NC State |
| Dahl, Soeren | NC State |
| Willimovsky, Jordan | Northwestern |
| Stephens, Zach | Notre Dame |
| Williamson, John | Notre Dame |
| Dyer, Frank | Notre Dame |
| Phillips, Tim | Ohio State |
| McDonald, Connor | Ohio State |
| Trebillcock, Garrett | Ohio State |
| McHugh, Matt | Ohio State |
| Fleagle, Josh | Ohio State |
| Zimmerman, Steven | Ohio State |
| Gercsak, Tamas | Ohio State |
| Disalle, Michael | Ohio State |
| Hoxha, Sidni | Old Dominion |
| Swanson, Chris | Penn |
| Ryan, Shane | Penn State |
| Savoy, Nate | Penn State |
| Ankosko, Nick | Penn State |
| Dias, Lyam | Purdue |
| Blnaco, Guillermo | Purdue |
| El Kamash, Marwan | South Carolina |
| Malone, Reed | Southern California |
| Colupaev, Dimitri | Southern California |
| Carter, Dylan | Southern California |
| Quintero, Cristian | Southern California |
| Spinazzola, Luca | Southern California |
| Wright, Cary | Southern California |
| Davis, Maclin | Southern California |
| Singley, Ted | Southern California |
| Malone, Andrew | Southern California |
| Nolan, David | Stanford |
| Cosgarea, Drew | Stanford |
| Williamson, Max | Stanford |
| Umbach, Gray | Stanford |
| Thomas, Danny | Stanford |
| Black, Connor | Stanford |
| Shaw, Mason | Stanford |
| Kremer, Tom | Stanford |
| Lehane, Sean | Tennessee |
| Percy, Luke | Tennessee |
| Rairden, Sam | Tennessee |
| Prono, Renato | Tennessee |
| Slater, Tristan | Tennessee |
| Conger, Jack | Texas |
| Darmody, Kip | Texas |
| Cooper, Tripp | Texas |
| Lewis, Sam (Tex) | Texas |
| Weir, Caleb | Texas |
| Licon, Will | Texas |
| Murphy, Pat | Texas |
| Ritter, Jake | Texas |
| Youngquist, Clay | Texas |
| Ellis, Matthew | Texas |
| Glass, Will | Texas |
| Murphy, Keith | Texas |
| Munoz, Nick | Texas |
| Murray, John | Texas |
| Ganiel, Imri | Texas |
| Gustafson, Aaron | Texas |
| Troskot, Kyle | Texas A&M |
| Frank, Simon | Texas A&M |
| Bolleter, Cory | Texas A&M |
| Schweizter, Paul-Mark | Texas A&M |
| Lindau, Henrik | Texas A&M |
| Robinson, Cooper | TX Christian |
| Hoffer, Luke | U.S. Navy |
| Duvall, Thomas | U.S. Navy |
| Murphy, Sean | U.S. Navy |
| Allen, Wade | UCSB |
| Hussein, Mohamed | UMBC |
| Colley, Ben | UNC |
| Gianino, Alex | UNC |
| Lewis, Sam (UNC) | UNC |
| Myers, Patrick | UNC |
| Soedel, Nick | Univ of Utah |
| Kiraly, Bence | Univ of Utah |
| Kron, Kristian | Univ of Utah |
| Virva, Dillon | UNLV |
| Paco Pedroni, Tom | UNLV |
| Szele, David | UNLV |
| Machado, Henrique | UNLV |
| Kaeser, Yannick | Virginia |
| Papendick, Luke | Virginia |
| Dudzinwski, Kyle | Virginia |
| Phillips, Bradley | Virginia |
| Ingraham, David | Virginia Tech |
| Murfee, Jack | Virginia |
| Daniec, Jon | Virginia |
| Camp, Parker | Virginia |
| Hart, Nathan | Virginia |
| Latimer, Morgan | Virginia Tech |
| Higgins, Collin | Virginia Tech |
| Switkowski, Jan | Virginia Tech |
| Owen, Robert | Virginia Tech |
| Cefalo, Harrison | Virginia Tech |
| Fiala, Brandon | Virginia Tech |
| Bohman, Bryce | West Virginia |
| Squires, Tim | West Virginia |
| Schwingenschlogl, Fabian | Western KY |
| Teduits, Drew | Wisconsin |
| Schafer, Nick | Wisconsin |
| Caldwell, Nicholas | Wisconsin |
| Kalms, Adam | Wyoming |
| Nelson, Ryan | Wyoming |
| Hogan, Brian | Yale |
Condorelli has improved in his sprints. The sprint events are just hard for freshmen to break into. He will be a key part of the Trojan relays though. And Stumph is a mystery, he didn’t get faster.
Santo will be going to NC’s to swim several relays. Of the 235 on roster only 37 (15%)were freshman and only 3 frosh made the 50 Free cut. A lot of people got left off NC roster for individual swims at many schools this year. The 50 Free cut was particularly hard to make this year.
Condorelli didn’t improve by much… but, he’s a freshman, that happens. If he doesn’t drop next year, then worry.
Pretty interesting to see that USC had two of the top recruits in the country who couldn’t make NCAAs their freshman year in Condorelli and Stumph. Hopefully this is just a part of adjusting to college and that they are there next year. Danny Tucker not making the meet is a little bit of a shock too after how fast he was at the US Open last summer.
Speaking of USC, I am surprised Spinazzola, Luca is entered. He hasn’t swum a dual meet this semester I don’t think and didn’t go to Pac 12’s. Hope he actually is going and didn’t just take up a slot that another swimmer would love the opportunity to go to NCAA’s.
korn – Spinazzola did race against Wisconsin in January, and has been doing some time trials and stuff. The information we’ve received is that his absence was not related to academics or injury.
He also swam in the 200 medley relay against Utah.
Danny Tucker is coming off a recent injury. He may be back in shape for long course.
And where is Bobrosky this year…
Chad has had some health issues and hasn’t been swimming up to his times this year. Bummer for him and team.
correction – David Ingraham is UVA, not Va Tech
Thanks Wahooswimfan – I think when Krista and I were entering these, we must’ve been caught by Excel’s auto-fill feature.
Did your projections take into account the tie for the 29th spot in the 200 fly? If not, that’s one less line 30 qualifier.
Wahooswimfan – yes, they did, as is denoted in the chart.
This list has been cutoff – stops at the “U”s – leaves of teams like Virginia, Va Tech, UNC, Wisconsin, and others at that end of the alphabet.
Isn’t Meyer from Arizona and not ASU?
Bradley Deborde and Jack Blyzinskyj are Florida Gators not Florida State
Why is Hassaan (also 3 A’s not 4 as you have above) Abdel-Khalik listed in the 200 free position? Won’t he qualify automatically in the 500? He is 10th on the entry report in the 500, so he shouldn’t be counted in the 200 free? Or do I have the entry process wrong…
Hence the black line drawn through his name, and the no percentage given for his “tie breaker”.