2024 MEN’S NCAA SWIMMING AND DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS
- March 27-30, 2024
- IUPUI Natatorium, Indianapolis, Indiana
- Short Course Yards (25 yards)
- Meet Central
- Official Psych Sheets
- SwimSwam Preview Index
- SwimSwam Pick ‘Ems Contest
- Live Results
Last week, we mathed-out the projected scoring in swimming events for the 2024 NCAA Men’s Swimming & Diving Championships, using pre-meet seeds to count how the meet would come out if 1) divers didn’t happen, and 2) everyone went exactly their seed time.
Of course, that’s only a piece of the puzzle. Swimmers get better, swimmers get worse, DQs happen, and psych sheet scoring is a guide for expectations, but not a crystal ball.
So how do we fill in that other variable on the swimming side? One way is to be patient and wait for the meet to start. The other is to use past performance as an indicator of what we *might* see next week in Indianapolis.
In that vein, we’ve calculated out how teams generally perform at NCAAs relative to their seeds.
Unlike what we saw last year on the women’s side, men’s teams saw a fairly-high volatility to their taper execution at the NCAA Championships. The Texas men were +170.5 at the NCAA Championships, which is a huge number even by their standards, while NC State (+65.5) and Indiana (+82) also leapt up the standings.
On the flip-side of that coin, Florida had an uncharacteristic -66.5 point drop last season, Michigan was -49, Tennessee was -33, and Texas A&M was -44.
Overall, it was a rough year for SEC teams. While Alabama went +10, most of the rest of the conference was in the red last season, including a -32 from Georgia.
Cal historically has had a 100+ point performance vs. psych at the NCAA Championships, but last year they were only +25.5 points. That’s crucial because they’ll need to find about 240 points to catch Arizona State.
Given that five of their best swimmers (Jack Alexy, Bjorn Seeliger, Destin Lasco, Gabriel Jett, and Dare Rose) skipped Pac-12s to race in long course at the Westmont Pro Swim, expect them to be at least at the +100 level this year, even if it’s not a true apples-to-apples comparison.
They’ll be chasing a heavily-favored Sun Devil team that was +3.5 vs. seed last season and -41 last year. With 12 top seeds, Arizona State has limited room to move up vs. seed, but a lot of room to move down – and that’s what Cal will be counting on if they want to win a third-straight title this year.
2023 NCAA Championships Final Team Standings
| TEAM | TOTAL | INDIVIDUAL SWIMMING POINTS | RELAY POINTS | DIVING POINTS | SCORING INDIVIDUAL COUNT | SCORING RELAY COUNT | SCORING DIVING COUNT | |
| 1 | California | 482 | 321 | 158 | 3 | 26 | 5 | 1 |
| 2 | Arizona State | 430 | 270 | 160 | 0 | 26 | 5 | 0 |
| 3 | Texas | 384 | 216 | 124 | 44 | 19 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Indiana | 379 | 139 | 136 | 104 | 11 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | NC State | 373.5 | 215.5 | 158 | 0 | 21 | 5 | 0 |
| 6 | Florida | 367.5 | 173 | 180 | 14.5 | 20 | 5 | 2 |
| 7 | Tennessee | 216.5 | 78.5 | 106 | 32 | 10 | 4 | 3 |
| 8 | Stanford | 143.5 | 43.5 | 78 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 2 |
| 9 | Virginia Tech | 133 | 59 | 68 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| 10 | Auburn | 127 | 39 | 82 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 1 |
| 11 | Ohio State | 112 | 32.5 | 8 | 71.5 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Georgia | 96 | 70 | 26 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 | Louisville | 92 | 26 | 66 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 | Texas A&M | 80 | 32 | 16 | 32 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 15 | Virginia | 78 | 8 | 70 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 | Missouri | 62.5 | 34.5 | 28 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 | LSU | 62.5 | 43.5 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Notre Dame | 62 | 52 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Alabama | 57 | 21 | 36 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 | Michigan | 37 | 17 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 | Minnesota | 36 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | USC | 31 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 23 | Wisconsin | 27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 | UNC | 27 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 25 | Miami | 27 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 26 | South Carolina | 15 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 27 | Utah | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 | Princeton | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 | SIUC | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 | Kentucky | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 | Columbia | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 32 | Arizona | 11 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 33 | Pittsburgh | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 34 | Penn State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 35 | Georgia Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 | Air Force | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 37 | Towson | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 38 | Purdue | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
2023 NCAA Championship Final Day-By-Day Scoring Analysis
DAY-BY-DAY SCORES VERSUS SEED
| DAY 1 TOTAL | DAY 1 CHANGE FROM SEED | DAY 2 TOTAL | DAY 2 CHANGE FROM SEED | DAY 3 TOTAL | DAY 3 CHANGE FROM SEED | DAY 4 TOTAL | DAY 4 CHANGE FROM SEED | TOTAL POINTS |
TOTAL CHANEG FROM SEED
|
|
| California | 62 | 4 | 122 | 12 | 131 | 28.5 | 167 | -19 | 482 | 25.5 |
| Arizona State | 68 | -6 | 86 | -3 | 148 | 9.5 | 128 | 3 | 430 | 3.5 |
| Texas | 50 | 12 | 115 | 68.5 | 127 | 55 | 92 | 35 | 384 | 170.5 |
| Indiana | 58 | 24 | 41 | 10 | 160 | 35 | 120 | 13 | 379 | 82 |
| NC State | 66 | 8 | 85.5 | 14 | 95 | -6.5 | 127 | 50 | 373.5 | 65.5 |
| Florida | 60 | -6 | 85 | -33.5 | 106 | -22 | 116.5 | -5 | 367.5 | -66.5 |
| Tennessee | 26 | -14 | 61 | -3.5 | 57 | -2 | 72.5 | -13.5 | 216.5 | -33 |
| Stanford | 38 | 14 | 36 | -7.5 | 38.5 | -6 | 31 | -0.5 | 143.5 | 0 |
| Virginia Tech | 8 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 44 | 10.5 | 37 | -27 | 133 | -16.5 |
| Auburn | 40 | -4 | 17 | -7.5 | 39 | -18 | 31 | 17 | 127 | -12.5 |
| Ohio State | 2 | -18 | 29.5 | -2.5 | 23 | -10.5 | 57.5 | 4 | 112 | -27 |
| Georgia | 20 | -14 | 16 | -2 | 17 | 0 | 43 | -16 | 96 | -32 |
| Louisville | 42 | 16 | 13 | -25.5 | 16 | -12 | 21 | -12 | 92 | -33.5 |
| Texas A&M | 8 | -10 | 36 | -2 | 21 | -16 | 15 | -16 | 80 | -44 |
| Virginia | 22 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 14 | -17 | 11 | -9 | 78 | -19 |
| Missouri | 6 | -6 | 4 | -3 | 40.5 | 2 | 12 | -4 | 62.5 | -11 |
| LSU | 0 | 0 | 22 | 8 | 18 | 15 | 22.5 | 10.5 | 62.5 | 33.5 |
| Notre Dame | 10 | 10 | 7 | -2 | 17 | 15 | 28 | 24 | 62 | 47 |
| Alabama | 26 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -4 | 19 | 0 | 57 | 10 |
| Michigan | 4 | -22 | 8 | -2.5 | 12 | -15 | 13 | -9.5 | 37 | -49 |
| Minnesota | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 36 | 3 |
| USC | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 4 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 8 | -15 | 0 | -0.5 | 27 | 1.5 |
| UNC | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 3 |
| Miami | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 27 | 0 |
| South Carolina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 15 | 0 | 15 | -4 |
| Utah | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 |
| Princeton | 0 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 1 |
| SIUC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -3.5 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0.5 |
| Kentucky | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | -11 | 13 | -11 |
| Columbia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
| Arizona | 0 | -4 | 10 | -8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 11 | -14 |
| Pittsburgh | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -7 |
| Penn State | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| Georgia Tech | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -12.5 | 3 | -16.5 |
| Air Force | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -13 |
| Towson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 |
| Purdue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
The championships are in Indianapolis not Athens
A couple thoughts:
Texas is in a conference where there is very little emotional energy to win it! I think they don’t have to tighten their belt all the way and have another notch ready for NCs!
Plus the men “only” have 30 athletes invites per event vs women’s 40 so makes it tougher to get invite so many/most have to let it all out just to get the invite!
Some coaches are just better in knowing their athletes, especially how much to rest their athletes even if they don’t need a cut! They have already secured it. Some seem to bring everyone down the same for conference. (Of course we all know, no one is rested or… Read more »
So they might get top 5 instead of top 10?
Not sure who “they” are that you referred to? Cal does similar at Pac 10s. They don’t care if they win….they won’t put a lot of energy into the meet with their top end guys and save that for NCAAs. Vs UF who goes all in at SECs!
Next year is going to be so intriguing to see how different Texas and Cal approach things. Athletic Departments care about conference results. I don’t know Durden’s or new ‘Horns coach’s contract but many Power 5 coaches have decent bonuses tied to conference performance. How will they approach conf meets where victories against Florida and NC State (probably built better for ACC’s than NCAA’s) will not be easy to achieve.
The nCAA bonus is probably much better and bigger than conference!