World champion and World record holder Regan Smith started the Olympic year with a bang at the Pro Swim in Knoxville, Tennessee, dropping a 58.2 in the 100 meters backstroke and 2:05.9 in the 200 meters backstroke. Those were the best performances of the competition. Add to them her 2:08.7 200m fly and 57.86 100m fly, both silver medal efforts, and Regan is clearly in elite training rhythm to deliver in June at the U.S. Olympic Trials in Omaha. Based on her January swims, I think she’s capable of breaking her own 100 meter backstroke world record (57.57) before the U.S. Olympic Trials. That’s a tall order, but why not?
Let’s play the prediction game.
After Regan’s 58.2 100m back in Knoxville, I’d love to see anything under a 58 flat in season, HOWEVER, I think she surprises us. Regan drops right at a 57.5, in season, in the 100m backstroke edging her own world record.
But who cares what I think? What do you think?
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This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com, a Swimming News website.
More likely she is in very heavy training until OTs and OGs building her base so she can break WRs on the big stage? Or do you see her like Adam Peaty toying with the WR on her way to a sub 57 this summer?
FWIW: RS’s job is to qualify in what she entered, regardless of time achieved. Factor in, she probably will be pretty well rested (one less thing to distract her and provide some confidence). I, for one, would love to see a WR or near WR at OTs…plays with the minds of rest of the world, and helpful for relays, as it is one more factor all relay team finalists and coaches to consider. Being young she should recover well and quickly. At the same time, qualifying is her #1 job, and she needs to do everything she can to qualify. The 1back will be pretty loaded with some very experiended pros and Nats Team members that can race and get… Read more »
We’re looking at places to set up an HQ. The place we’ve been at the last two times is now like a wedding venue – they shut down the restaurant altogether.
Hard to peel places away from the baseball crowd. Can’t say I blame them – baseball comes every year, swimming only once every 4 years.
This January Regan Smith was pretty much at same shape she was last summer before World Championships. And I think she wasn’t tapered then. This last meet gave me actually no new messages about possible results at this Olympic season. People quickly forget how outstanding were her records. It could be same story as with Ledecky, who said immediately after Rio that her records are very tough. For her first of all.
True….and wise to use the Ledecky lens. I was actually think Ledecky, wondering if Regan might do a small rest, a small speed training cycle in-season. That might give her enough pop to get under 58 flat in the 100m back. Again, it is a tall oder.
Ledecky was not fully rested in 2016. Rio results pretty much point that out.
…..but she had 2012 Olympics under her belt. Regan did attend 2016 OTs. She has that OTs experience, but I don’t think you hold back on OTs tapers AT ALL until you have one OG under your belt…. AGAIN, I think a lot of elites DO A FULL REST for OTs, but bc they have so much base work, their 2nd taper is always faster.
How does the second quick taper work? Do they train hard for a few weeks at training camp and then taper back down? Or do they just keep a light workload to stay in shape but not push it too much?
most elites go back up (somewhat, not too much) and then come back down….
World records are extremely hard to get in-season. I don’t think Regan will do that. She could get close, though.
But her training focus right now seems to be the 200 free. Her best time in that event is a 1:58.
What will she be able to swim in Omaha? 1:55.7 for a relay spot.
I think she’s capable of a 1:55.7. That would be a big swim, another eye-popping performance. I think that makes Team USA…
1:55.7 for a relay spot is way too fast – I think 6th is going to be somewhere around 1:56 high or 1:57 low, but even then that would be a fast final.
Smith also has a shot at the 200 fly behind Flickinger. The semi final of the 2 Fly is the same night, but after the 2 Free final. She could easily go for both, and only has the 2 Back for the rest of the meet
We really don’t know who Regan Smith is. Just before WC she was a good swimmer, possible contender for the place on Olympic team. Possible.. And then boommmm!!! – 2:03. Twice! It was shocking. Still being with the 2019 mentality I would like to see her with 5 gold Olympic medals without risking that with extra three races in 200fly. But
this girl can be a monster. At least her 3sec drop in personal best smashing with that 7 years old outstanding world record looks monstrous.
Huh, not that I count for much, but I definitely saw her as far more than a “possible” Olympic team member prior to last summer. Wasn’t she generally considered the gold fav in the 2 back at Worlds last summer? Not that I saw her smashing the WR, but I think many expected she would win that race.
6th place will be around 156.7, and RS will not be that fast. People tend to overestimate how fast Trials will be, thinking that a majority of swimmers will do LTBs. It just doesn’t work out that way. Also, 156 mid is a really fast time for women’s 200 free and RS just hasn’t demonstrated anything close to that.
….we want 6th to be fast, but, 1:57 low will make it…. I really hope 1:56 “something” is 6th….but also true that we (I) tend to predict fast swims at OTs and OGs.
6th place was 1:57.65 at 2016 trial – it is getting faster but I think Mel is right that it maybe 1:57 low for 6th place this time.
will we really see the interesting coincident? 2012 4th place was 1:57.75 and that is close to 6th place in 2016… 4th place in 2016 was 1:56.72 and would that be roughly 6th place time??
Should RS swim 200FR during last WC I think we would see 1:57 flat if not better. At last meet she just repeated her pre-WC time not being for sure at peak form. The question is if she really wants to do so. No announcements were maid. On the other hand nothing was said about targeting world records at last WC. She is very reserved person.
RS doesn’t set goal times….. No kidding. She just goes out there and does it. See here: https://staging.swimswam.com/regan-smith-does-not-set-goal-times-gmm-presented-by-swimoutlet-com/
I think Cate Campbell in 2016 would be a good example of what you would not want..
If she swims the 800 free relay what about the 200 fly??? I hope she can handle both In one session
Will she need to full rest at OTs? She could be someone who doesn’t. Dressel probably does if he wants an individual swim in the 100 free.
Good question. A full rest is probably not needed, but I cannot think of anyone who doesn’t do a full rest for US OTs. It’s too risky NOT to do a full rest. US OTs is the more pressure-packed event on earth, arguably more nerve-racking the OGs. Also, all coaches know some swimmers tank at UT OTs and some deliver eye-popping performances…. I think the safe path is DOING THE WORK, INVESTING IN SUCH A BIG BASE that you do a full rest for OTs, but know your BASE is so BIG, you can probably extend the taper out further for front-end speed with backend pain coming home. From my experience, you can have a very long rest. Your easy… Read more »
it seems that 2016 Katie Ledecky did not do a full rest for US OT 🙂 She may be the only one don’t do a full rest at OT this year again… maybe she will rest more for the 200m free spot?
Ledecky and Dressel don’t need to fully rest, but — to be safe, if I were them – go ahead and do a 90-95% taper to be safe.
Dressel will definitely need a good amount of rest. Maybe not the 50 free or 100 fly, but he’ll need to be close to his best in the 100 free to secure an individual spot.
200 will be the only race where her hard training in-season times have to be bettered in order to have first or second place. 1:55 may needed for that purpose. For her it will be one race meet with training exercises in other events. American middle-long distance swimming is actually pretty weak behind Ledecky. I’m not even sure she will race 100. At OT 2016 she was 7th at 100 and nevertheless was given the place in final relay.
Depends what times the top 4 in the 100 swim.
I doubt that Ledecky did a full rest in 2012.
It’s event dependent I think. For the Women’s 100 backstroke? The average time at OT finals will probably be faster than the finals of the OG. But for events like Dressel’s 100 Fly? Your OG competitors will be faster than OT finals for sure.
Dressel doesn’t need to fully rest for 100 free.
doesn’t need to, but I would…. If you’re off a little on a taper, things can go sideways, especially for sprinters. (Has anyone ever been “halfway” through taper and felt slower?)
Sure, but Troy knows how to double taper Dressel really well with a partial and then full rest. The 100 free will be deep but I don’t see there being two guys who are going to be able to beat Dressel on the finals even at 90%. Troy’s swimmers have a history of peaking at OG, not OT.
But on the Regan front, I like your predictions. I think they might be a tad optimistic, but with younger swimmers, I’d err on that side of things with predictions any day.
Regan Smith unrested most likely will be just a tad under 58, remember at the councilman meet she went 58.45 than went 9 tenths faster at worlds… so unrested she will most likely baring any Catastrophes sure be a shoe in for both backstrokes, but if she keeps improving her fly up to any close level as her backstroke she could challenge for the gold in those as well