Returning Conference Points: 3 Clear-Cut Front-runners In Men’s Big Ten

The 2020 NCAA Championships were canceled in the coronavirus pandemic – but the virus can’t stop our pre-season coverage for the 2021 campaign. We’re running through a comprehensive preview of each of the Power-5 conferences in Division I, compiling returning conference points and tracking transfers and incoming recruits.

2020 Lookback

A huge Michigan senior class dominated a top-heavy Big Ten, ending a three-year Indiana run atop the conference. Michigan was untouchable over the longer distances. Senior Felix Auboeck won the 500 free and 1650 free and senior Charlie Swanson the 400 IM. Michigan also took the 800 free relay, 200 breast (senior Tommy Cope) and 100 fly (senior Miles Smachlo).

Ohio State nipped Indiana for second, getting two 1-2 finishes from Andrew Loy and Paul DeLakis in the 200 IM and 200 free. IU had the top-end talent, though, winning a meet-high nine events, including a sprint sweep from junior Bruno Blaskovic (50 free, 100 free), a backstroke sweep from junior Gabriel Fantoni (100 back, 200 back), and a 200 fly title for rookie Brendan Burns. IU also won both medley relays and the 200/400 free relays for 4/5 relay titles.

There was a massive dropoff from those three teams to the rest of the field. The only event winner outside of those three programs was Minnesota sophomore Max McHugh, who won the 100 breast. Wisconsin was 4th as a team, besting a resurgent Northwestern group.

Returning Points for 2021

The top three remain well ahead of the rest of the conference – but they directly reversed their 2020 finish order when you stack up returning points.

Indiana returns a whopping 89% of its individual points, losing just three scorers and only three Mohamed Samy relay legs. Both Ohio State (11/20 returning) and Michigan (12/20 returning) cleared out almost half their relay legs, and Michigan only returns a little more than half of its individual points.

Further back, Northwestern and Purdue both return huge points. Neither program graduated a single relay leg, and both graduated just one single individual point-scorer apiece.

Scorers By Team

Teams are listed in their 2020 conference finish order. Athletes are listed with their year as of the current 2019-2020 season, not their year for the 2020-2021 season.

Michigan (705)

Ohio State (820)

Indiana (898.5)

Wisconsin (371)

Northwestern (432)

Iowa (307)

Purdue (317)

Minnesota (214)

Penn State (275)

Michigan State (78)

New Additions

Michigan’s incoming class is the clear-cut best in the conference – it’s just how much that can eat into the other two teams’ superior returning points. (Some redshirt returners are going to make that task even harder, too). The Wolverines graduated a boatload of points, but they do get elite backstroker Wyatt Davis (45.8/1:40.8) and fast-rising distance man Jake Mitchell (14:57/4:14.6/1:34.0 free), both top-10 domestic recruits. Long course 22.8/50.4 sprinter James LeBuke should also help the relays.

Ohio State gets impact sprinter Ruslan Gaziev (19.3/42.5/1:34.8) back from an Olympic redshirt season, and also pulled Hunter Armstrong (19.7/42.7/1:35.8) as a sophomore transfer from WVU. That helps offset the loss of Loy and Matthew Abeysinghe off the free relays, plus the news that star transfer Cameron Craig will not compete for Ohio State moving forward. The Buckeyes also add 3:46.0 IMer Owen Conley and a big, well-rounded freshman class.

The Indiana recruiting class is a clear tier below those two, but still has elite international flyer Tomer Frankel, a 51.9 long course butterfly who is also 1:47.1 in the 200-meter free. Recall that this is a program that returns 17 of 20 relay legs already and won four of five relays last season. IU also got a bunch of solid freshman breaststrokers. And the team expects NCAA runner-up miler Michael Brinegar (14:27/4:16.4) to return from an Olympic redshirt along with NCAA champion diver Andrew Capobianco.

The Wisconsin Badgers return a conference-low 63% of their individual points and only half their relay legs. But their recruiting class is solid, with NCAA qualifying miler Josh Dannhauser (14:52/4:16.7) coming in on a transfer from Auburn and 53.6 breaststroker and 20.0/44.0 freestyler Andrew Benson joining as a freshman.

A few other standout recruiting classes:

• Minnesota‘s class is huge, and includes 15:05 miler Sawyer Grimes and 20.0/44.2 sprinter Lucas Farrar, a redshirt freshman.
• Iowa gets 54.0 breaststroker Kyle Adams and 47.7 backstroker Aidan Lohr.
• Northwestern recruited a solid sprinter in Michael Linnihan (20.6/44.8) and a good distance guy in Jacob Rosner (4:21.3/1:38.1).

2021 Outlook

With Indiana’s incredible recruiting run the past few years, this roster is loaded with talent. Adding in Frankel and returning Brinegar and Capobianco is just too much to bet against. We’ll take IU to return to the top of the conference, though Ohio State could make a sneaky run if they can knock Indiana off the top of some of these relays.

The Gaziev/Armstrong pairing is a great start. And OSU also has one of the nation’s top young divers in Lyle Yost to compete with Capobianco.

Michigan could surge back into contention if this recruiting class gets up to speed quickly. The relays aren’t in as bad of shape as it looks – Smachlo is a big loss on the fly legs of the medley, but River Wright went 46.1 as a freshman last year, and Davis is probably an instant upgrade on the backstroke leg. It’s just matching the returning redshirts that’s going to be difficult for Michigan against the top two teams.

Northwestern should have a lot of continuity… but head coach Jeremy Kipp also moved on to USC and we don’t know who is leading that Wildcat program yet. They’ve stockpiled a lot of young talent, and their freshman (185.5 individual points) and sophomore (180.5) classes easily outscored their upperclassmen (83 combined junior/senior points) last year.

Wisconsin returns about 60 fewer points than Northwestern, so the question is how much we can expect the Badger newcomers to outscore Northwestern’s recruiting class. Our read is that Dannhauser alone probably projects to score 50+, so we’ll back Wisconsin to hold 4th.

Last year, the Iowa/Purdue/Minnesota/Penn State bloc were all within 40 points of one another, and returning points would suggest a similarly even matchup this year. Of that group, Purdue has the clear edge in returners (losing just one scorer and zero relay legs) and gets conference champion diver Brandon Loschiavo back from a redshirt year, along with school record-holding 500 freestyler Batuhan Hakan.

From there, we’ll take Minnesota on the strength of their recruiting class, but only narrowly over strong returning Iowa and Penn State groups.

Way-Too-Early Conference Picks

1. Indiana
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin
5. Northwestern
6. Purdue
7. Minnesota
8. Iowa
9. Penn State
10. Michigan State