2024 U.S. OLYMPIC TRIALS
- June 15-23, 2024
- Lucas Oil Stadium — Indianapolis, IN
- LCM (50 Meters)
- Meet Central
- Live Results
- SwimSwam Preview Index
The U.S. Olympic Trials can be wildly unpredictable, and that proved to be the case last week as an unforgettable nine days of racing in Indianapolis saw its fair share of surprises, though a lot of the big stars made good on their status as pre-race favorites.
SwimSwam’s official picks tied for 34th out of nearly 1000 entries in the Pick ’em Contest, a solid mark, though that only accounts for the top four picks in each event.
Taking a bird’s eye view of all of our picks, let’s review how the SwimSwam picks did accounting for the eight finalists in each event.
- See all of our picks at the SwimSwam Preview Index here.
On the women’s side, our best showing came in the 200 freestyle, where we correctly predicted seven of the eight finalists. We also went 6/8 in the 100 free, 100 back, 200 back, 200 breast and 100 fly.
Technically, our worst showing came in the 400 free—the second prelim on the entire schedule—where only four of the eight finalists were picked correctly. However, that doesn’t account for our 5th-place pick Katie Grimes, who qualified for the final but scratched out.
A total of 11 of our finalist selections ended up scratching from their respective events, either before the prelims or after one of the early rounds:
- Kate Douglass – 50 free
- Katie Grimes – 400 free, 800 free
- Leah Smith – 800 free
- Paige Madden – 1500 free
- Jillian Cox – 1500 free
- Lydia Jacoby – 200 breast
- Alex Shackell – 100 fly
- Torri Huske – 200 IM
- Bella Sims – 200 IM
- Phoebe Bacon – 200 IM
Below, find the swimmers ordered 1-8 based on how we predicted them to finish, with their final placing in the far right column. At the bottom of each event, “Moving In” refers to the swimmers who made the final that we didn’t predict, while the bottom right corner gives a tally of the correct finalists we picked out of eight.
50 Freestyle
PICKS | FINISH | |
1 | Kate Douglass | scratch |
2 | Gretchen Walsh | 2nd |
3 | Simone Manuel | 1st |
4 | Abbey Weitzeil | 3rd |
5 | Torri Huske | 4th |
6 | Olivia Smoliga | 10th |
7 | Catie DeLoof | 7th |
8 | Anna Moesch | 23rd |
Moving In: |
Rylee Erisman (5th), Erika Connolly (6th), Maxine Parker (8th)
|
5/8 |
Note: In the preview, we noted that if Douglass scratched, Maxine Parker would be our pick for the next finalist. Douglass did scratch and Parker cracked the final, placing 8th.
100 Freestyle
PICKS | FINISH | |
1 | Kate Douglass | 1st |
2 | Torri Huske | 2nd |
3 | Abbey Weitzeil | 5th |
4 | Gretchen Walsh | 3rd |
5 | Simone Manuel | 4th |
6 | Maxine Parker | 17th |
7 | Bella Sims | 31st |
8 | Catie DeLoof | 6th |
Moving In: |
Erika Connolly (t-6th), Beata Nelson (8th)
|
6/8 |
200 Freestyle
PICKS | FINISH | |
1 | Katie Ledecky | 1st |
2 | Bella Sims | 17th |
3 | Erin Gemmell | 4th |
4 | Claire Weinstein | 2nd |
5 | Anna Peplowski | 5th |
6 | Paige Madden | 3rd |
7 | Simone Manuel | 7th |
8 | Alex Shackell | 6th |
Moving In: | Katie Grimes (8th) | 7/8 |
400 Freestyle
PICKS | FINISH | |
1 | Katie Ledecky | 1st |
2 | Paige Madden | 2nd |
3 | Bella Sims | 20th |
4 | Claire Weinstein | 30th |
5 | Katie Grimes |
7th prelims/scratch final
|
6 | Jillian Cox | 3rd |
7 | Madi Mintenko | 8th |
8 | Rachel Stege | 13th |
Moving In: |
|
4/8* |
*not including Grimes, who made the final and scratched.
800 Freestyle
PICKS | FINISH | |
1 | Katie Ledecky | 1st |
2 | Jillian Cox | 3rd |
3 | Katie Grimes | scratch |
4 | Claire Weinstein | 7th |
5 | Leah Smith | scratch |
6 | Aurora Roghair | 4th |
7 | Kayla Han | 28th |
8 | Paige Madden | 2nd |
Moving In: |
Rachel Stege (5th), Kate Hurst (6th), Ashley Twichell (8th)
|
5/8 |
1500 Freestyle
PICKS | FINISH | |
1 | Katie Ledecky | 1st |
2 | Katie Grimes | 2nd |
3 | Kate Hurst | 4th |
4 | Kayla Han | 27th |
5 | Paige Madden | scratch |
6 | Jillian Cox | scratch |
7 | Erica Sullivan | 7th |
8 | Rachel Stege | 6th |
Moving In: |
Ashley Twichell (3rd), Aurora Roghair (5th), Mariah Denigan (8th)
|
5/8 |
100 Backstroke
PICKS | FINISH | |
1 | Regan Smith | 1st |
2 | Katharine Berkoff | 2nd |
3 | Claire Curzan | 8th |
4 | Isabelle Stadden | 9th |
5 | Rhyan White | 5th |
6 | Kennedy Noble | 3rd |
7 | Erika Pelaez | 13th |
8 | Phoebe Bacon | 6th |
Moving In: |
Josephine Fuller (4th), Leah Shackley (7th)
|
6/8 |
200 Backstroke
PICKS | FINISH | |
1 | Regan Smith | 1st |
2 | Claire Curzan | 3rd |
3 | Phoebe Bacon | 2nd |
4 | Kennedy Noble | 4th |
5 | Rhyan White | 5th |
6 | Isabelle Stadden | 7th |
7 | Leah Shackley | 17th |
8 | Josephine Fuller | 16th |
Moving In: |
Katie Grimes (6th), Teagan O’Dell (8th)
|
6/8 |
100 Breaststroke
PICKS | FINISH | |
1 | Lilly King | 1st |
2 | Lydia Jacoby | 3rd |
3 | Kaitlyn Dobler | 4th |
4 | Emma Weber | 2nd |
5 | Alex Walsh | 6th |
6 | Piper Enge | 14th |
7 | Skyler Smith | 9th |
8 | Hannah Bach | 13th |
Moving In: |
Kaelyn Gridley (5th), McKenzie Siroky (7th), Ella Nelson (8th)
|
5/8 |
200 Breaststroke
PICKS | FINISH | |
1 | Kate Douglass | 1st |
2 | Lilly King | 2nd |
3 | Alex Walsh | 3rd |
4 | Ella Nelson | 4th |
5 | Lydia Jacoby | scratch |
6 | Anna Keating | 6th |
7 | Kaitlyn Dobler | 9th |
8 | Isabelle Odgers | 7th |
Moving In: |
Kaelyn Gridley (5th), Raya Mellott (8th)
|
6/8 |
100 Butterfly
PICKS | FINISH | |
1 | Torri Huske | 2nd |
2 | Gretchen Walsh | 1st |
3 | Claire Curzan | 4th |
4 | Regan Smith | 3rd |
5 | Alex Shackell |
4th prelims/scratch semis
|
6 | Leah Shackley | 12th |
7 | Kelly Pash | 5th |
8 | Emma Sticklen | 8th |
Moving In: |
Beata Nelson (6th), Lillie Nordmann (7th)
|
6/8* |
*Not including Shackell, who advanced to the semis in 4th and scratched.
200 Butterfly
PICKS | FINISH | |
1 | Regan Smith | 1st |
2 | Alex Shackell | 2nd |
3 | Dakota Luther | 5th |
4 | Lindsay Looney | 3rd |
5 | Rachel Klinker | 13th |
6 | Kelly Pash | 11th |
7 | Tess Howley | 7th |
8 | Caroline Bricker | 12th |
Moving In: |
Emma Sticklen (4th), Charlotte Hook (6th), Lucy Bell (8th)
|
5/8 |
200 IM
PICKS | FINISH | |
1 | Kate Douglass | 1st |
2 | Alex Walsh | 2nd |
3 | Torri Huske |
3rd semis/scratch final
|
4 | Leah Hayes | 5th |
5 | Bella Sims | scratch |
6 | Isabel Ivey | 3rd |
7 | Phoebe Bacon | scratch |
8 | Beata Nelson | 4th |
Moving In: |
Zoe Dixon (6th), Lilla Bognar (7th), Lucy Bell (8th)
|
5/8* |
*Not including Huske, who made the final but scratched.
400 IM
PICKS | FINISH | |
1 | Katie Grimes | 1st |
2 | Emma Weyant | 2nd |
3 | Leah Hayes | 5th |
4 | Lilla Bognar | 3rd |
5 | Lucy Bell | 6th |
6 | Ella Nelson | 26th |
7 | Megan van Berkom | 9th |
8 | Kayla Han | 10th |
Moving In: |
Leah Smith (4th), Zoe Dixon (7th), Audrey Derivaux (8th)
|
5/8 |
TAKEAWAYS:
- Seven women made the final in multiple events that we didn’t predict: Erika Connolly (50/100 free), Aurora Roghair (400/1500 free), Leah Smith (400 free/400 IM), Ashley Twichell (800/1500 free), Kaelyn Gridley (100/200 breast), Beata Nelson (100 free/100 fly), and Lucy Bell (200 fly/200 IM).
- Roghair (800 free), Nelson (200 IM) and Bell (400 IM) also made the final of an additional event that we predicted.
- Connolly was the only female swimmer we didn’t pick to final to finish in an Olympic-qualifying position (tied for 6th in 100 free).
- The effect that the nine-day schedule had on swimmers is evident in cases where an athlete may have performed well in some events, but been way off in others. Kayla Han, for example, had a breakthrough swim early in the meet in the 400 free, placing 4th (after being scratched into the final) after she wasn’t picked to place in the top eight. In the 800 free, 1500 free and 400 IM, the 16-year-old was picked to be in the final but missed out, with respective finishes of 28th, 27th and 10th.
- In the case of Josephine Fuller, she was not picked to make the 100 back final but placed 4th. She was then picked to make the 200 back final but fell to 16th—perhaps a sign of fatigue late in the meet.
- It was evident that Bella Sims wasn’t at her best from the first session, and that carried through for the week. Sims was picked to make the final in four events, and she missed out in three and scratched the 200 IM.
- Picking the winners on the women’s side was fairly clear-cut, as we got all but two correct, only missing the 50 free and 100 fly.
- In the 50 free, Kate Douglass was our pick to win but she scratched out. However, we still would be wrong on that one even if the scratch was factored in, as our #2 pick, Gretchen Walsh, ended up being the runner-up to Simone Manuel (picked 3rd).
- The only other miss on picking winners was the 100 fly, where Walsh upset Torri Huske after breaking the world record in the semis.
- We picked the top two finishers (in either order) in nine of 14 events. We missed the:
- 50 free (Douglass scratch)
- 200 free (#2 pick Bella Sims missed semis, 2nd-place Claire Weinstein was picked 4th)
- 800 free (#2 pick Jillian Cox was 3rd, 2nd-place Paige Madden was picked 8th)
- 200 back (#2 pick Claire Curzan was 3rd, 2nd-place Phoebe Bacon was picked 3rd)
- 100 breast (#2 pick Lydia Jacoby was 3rd, 2nd-place Emma Weber was picked 4th)
Poor Bella, BUT, she’s good to go for 2028 and will probably win a gold medal.
What’s she gonna win a gold medal in?
I guess they can hope Titmus retires by then and the relay is winnable?
But between MOC/Summer/Ledecky I can’t see Sims winning any individual free
Synchronized swimming
what happened to Bella Sims?
In Ledecky We Trust 😎
If Lydia Jacoby continues the downward spiral at the University of Texas, the future of the women’s 100 meter breaststroke looks to be Weber and Gridley, at first glance. Since Carol Capitani already sent two females into early retirement (Luther, Sullivan) during the month of June, I don’t expect the situation to change with Lydia Jacoby.
I would rate the performance of the University of Texas women’s swimming program under Carol Capitani at the 2024 Olympic Team Trials as a freakin’ disaster. One relay only swimmer is all to show for. How she manages to keep her job is a joke.
Not many coaches will be fired for under performing when they get second at NCAAs. There may be some issues, but this criticism seems over the top.
Which doesn’t amount to a hill of beans when it comes to USA Swimming.
Does scoring a lot of diving points make her a good swim coach? A lot of girls come out of high school already fast enough to score so if you can recruit it can really hide your inability to develop your swimmers. I think thats what is happening here.
So Mary T’s coach was awesome from 1978-1981 them suddenly stopped being any good? She never dropped time from age 16 on. That’s incredibly common amongst women athletes in all sports. Ones like Titmus that drop time into their mid 20s are the exception to the rule
Ariarne Titmus turns 24 years old on 7 Sept 2024. Technically, Ariarne Titmus has not reached her mid 20s.
It’s happened more often than you think in post supersuit era.
Boyle – 27
Friis – 25
Hosszu – 27
Kohler – 27
Federica Pellegrini posted her fastest textile performance in the women’s 200 meter freestyle at the age of 30.
Please tell that to the 25 year old Paige Madden at the 2024 Olympic Team Trials.
This is so tired and I don’t understand the grief Carol gets. Most of Texas’s points came from stud swimmers who improved a lot while at Texas – Pash, Sticklen, Bray, Elendt. Key relay pieces like Cooper and Longi improved. Jacoby and Gemmell went best yards times under Carol and co. Freshmen Coe, Berglund, Stoll, Kern all went PBs already.
Yes Sullivan didn’t improve but she has had shoulder injuries. Even Desorbo has some swimmers who don’t improve.
Pash, Sticklen, Bray, Cooper have yet to qualify for a major international competition (LCM).
Who gives a damn about a swimmer’s best yards performances at the 2024 Olympic Team Trials?
Yet, Lydia Jacoby regressed in the 100 BR and 200 BR. Lydia Jacoby did not even qualify for the Championship Final in the 200 BR at the 2024 NCAA Division I Women’s Swimming & Diving Championships. Let’s sweep that under the rug.
You must have an ax to grind. Did she cut you or your daughter at some point?
I hate the narrative of “good swim good swimmer. bad swim bad coach”.
You mean when the former high school junior gold medalist fails to qualify for the 2024 Summer Olympics as a collegiate sophomore.
How else are you supposed to measure a coaches success then??
who were you expecting besides Jacoby to make the team individually? They don’t really have any of that super elite top-end talent in LCM; their butterfly trio of Bray-Pash-Sticklen never had a chance in any event they swam – Sticklen even dropped a huge lifetime PB of over a second in the 200 fly semis. Gemmell finished in the same position that she did last summer at trials, could have been better but the 200 final in general was not very fast
Jillian Cox
Please compare the times posted in the women’s 800 meter freestyle at the 2023 Phillips 66 National Championships to the 2024 Olympic Team Trials. It’s fricken’ regression!
Erin Gemmell
Please compare the times posted in the women’s 200 meter freestyle at the 2023 Phillips 66 National Championships to the 2024 Olympic Team Trials. It’s fricken’ regression!
Lydia Jacoby
Please compare the times posted in the women’s 100 meter breaststroke at the 2022 International Team Trials to the 2024 Olympic Team Trials. Lydia Jacoby was even worse in 2024 as a collegiate sophomore than in 2022 as a high school senior when she failed to qualify for the 2022 World Aquatics Championships.
Regression! Regression! Regression!
Where’s the accountability?
Jillian Cox doesn’t yet train under Carol.
Ouchies!
Shaped up to be a fantastic women’s team. So stoked for these women. Would have loved to have seen Bella make that team. That was a heartbreaking meet for her I’m sure. Good luck ladies!!!!
and Claire 💔
Gretchen Walsh is such an anomaly who will continue to cause prognosticators problems. Next one may be the 50FR in Paris, we shall see.
In Paris, I think the 50FR is Sarah’s
Very likely. The +\- on Gretchen is unpredictable. In a couple of years we’ll know more. Who would have predicted the fly time?
I certainly didn’t
Please do an analysis of SwimSwam’s Way Too Early Olympic Predictions article that was published back in early 2023!
We’re working on that right now! 😉
I promise I’ll restrain myself from any Regan Smith snark. 😇
https://staging.swimswam.com/swimswams-way-too-early-2024-u-s-olympic-team-trials-picks/ if this is the article that you’re referring to.
Truly so wild to see how Guiliano and Alexy were not on the radar at all. “Favorites” this year (Rose, Lasco) weren’t on the radar pre-Worlds either. And I know it hasn’t been that long, but wild to think that Flick wasn’t officially retired then yet either.
the overall prediction for Gretchen was actually pretty accurate if you average all 21 predictions across the 50 free, 100 free, and 100 fly, counting any event where she was unranked as the next possible spot. Across those 21 predictions, she averaged a 2.19 ranking, compared to actually having a 2.0 overall placement at trials (1 in the 100 fly, 2 in the 50 free, 3 in the 100 free)
Douglass and Regan are arguably the 2 biggest American on the women’s side besides Ledecky and they were definitely underrated (even if it might’ve been justified at the time). Douglass had a 4.57 average in the 100 free, was completely unranked in the 50 free, and 2.43 in the 200… Read more »
4/7 predictions had her winning both the 50 and 100 free and 6/7 had her winning at least one and she won neither. 0/7 had her winning the 100 fly and 2/7 had her top 2 and she won. I don’t see how you can consider those accurate.
did you stop reading after the first 8 words? Her average prediction across the 3 events (21 predictions total with 7 people) was a 2.19, which is worse than what she actually did. Given how unaccomplished she was in LCM at the point of writing that article, those predictions are pretty good
Douglass is always underrated. Not sure why–she does everything right and is incredibly predictable and clutch.
When ya’ll have recovered from these very busy two weeks, I would love to see a comparison to the early trials picks you did a couple years ago