Men’s 4×200 Freestyle
- 2012 Olympic Champ: United States,6:59.70
- 2015 World Champ: Great Britain, 7:04.33
- World record: United States, 6:58.55
Up until last summer, the United States had owned the men’s 4×200 free relay ever since their upset of Australia at the 2004 Olympics. Every summer from 2004-2015, Team USA came away victorious at their top international meet, often by huge margins. However, in a perfect storm of poor preparation, a year-in-advance selection process, Michael Phelps not making the trip to Kazan, and strong competition, the U.S. saw their historic run come to an end.
Last summer, it was Great Britain who managed to pulled off the stunner, thanks to a 1:44.74 anchor leg from 20-year-old star James Guy. Three of the four legs from that relay–Guy, Dan Wallace, and Robbie Renwick–will be competing in Rio, but their finals squad participants remains to be seen. Guy and Renwick are virtually shoe-ins, though Wallace finished in seventh place at British Trials in 1:48.50 after a 1:47.04 leadoff leg last summer. Stephen Milne, traditionally more of a distance swimmer, back-halfed his way to the second place slot at Trials in 1:47.15, but won’t be competing in the individual 200 in Rio. Rising star Duncan Scott finished fourth at Trials (1:47.31), but is not on the “official” Rio entry list to compete. Fifth-place finisher Cameron Kurle (1:47.82) will be Britain’s second individual Olympic representative.
This British quest for gold in Rio will be a steeper one than 2015. Not necessarily because their squad is worse; their primarily competition is just better. Even with their dismal performance in Kazan, the United States are the favorites. Four Americans have been under 1:45.8 in the past year, while Australia is the only other country with more than one swimmer under 1:46.4. Remarkably, that doesn’t include Michael Phelps, who’s a shoe-in for a sub-1:46 split, even on an off day. The new-found hope in American middle distance swimming is attributed to Longhorn training partners Townley Haas and Jack Conger hitting their stride at the right time. Add in stalwarts Ryan Lochte and Conor Dwyer, and the U.S. is tracking to once again challenge the 7:00-barrier.
Australia–bronze medalists in Kazan–is still on the a rebound from a five-year lull where they didn’t win a medal at a World Championships or Olympics, though with the ascendance of Cam McEvoy alongside the experienced trio of Thomas Fraser-Holmes, David McKeon, and Daniel Smith, they’ll give the British squad all it can handle.
Russia would have been in the medal mix, but may be stuck on the outside looking in following the recent inelibility penalties levied by FINA. While Danila Izotov and Alexander Krasnyikh (arguably their two fastest) are still on the squad, now-banned Mikhail Dovgalyuk and Nikita Lobintsev were both expected to compete on this relay. Russia will have to rely on their 5th and 6th place finishers from Trials: Vyacheslav Andrusenko and Alexander Sukhorukov.
Japan missed the Worlds championship final in 2015, but with the ever-versatile Kosuke Hagino back in full form from an elbow injury that kept him out of Kazan (he was 1:45.50 in April), expect them to make the top 8 with ease, and be in the running for a medal. Yuki Kobori, Daiya Seto, and the seemingly-ageless Takeshi Matsuda will all battle with Naito Ehara, who put together a breakthrough 1:46.66 at the KONAMI Open in February, for the final three relay spots.
One big unknown: China. While the Chinese delegation is not sending any “relay only” 4×200 participants to Rio, they have the talent to put together a solid team. In addition to Sun Yang, Wang Shun (1:47.3 earlier this season), Shang Keyuan (#2 qualifier in the individual 200), and Qiu Zhao (3:47.99 in the 400 free) will all be competing individually in Rio. Should the Chinese choose to put a relay together that includes Sun Yang (he didn’t swim the 4×200 in Kazan), they should push for a finals slot. For now, though, we will leave them out of our rankings.
And then there’s the French. Back in 2011, with a young Yannick Agnel and Jeremy Stravius at the helm, France appeared to be the only team who could legitimately give the U.S. a run over the next five years in the 800 free relay. The French finished a distant second in London, but their 7:02.77 was one of the top non-U.S. times in history, and given Agnel was just 20 years old at the time, there was no question the future looked bright. Since then, however, France has struck out, failing to medal at 2013 Worlds and 2014 Euros, and completely missing the championship final last summer. Agnel and Stravius are still around, and while a finals appearance is in play, the outlook in Rio isn’t what fans may have expected coming out of the previous Olympic Games.
Four other European teams will be in the hunt positions in the championship final:
- The Netherlands: Sebastiaan Verschuren and Dion Dreesens gives the Dutch a great 1-2 punch, and the improvement of Maarten Brzoskowski (1:47.17 in April) provides some much-needed depth.
- Germany: Paul Biedermann has been one of the world’s best for nearly a decade, and he has a solid group around him. Florian Vogel earned himself a spot on the relay with a big time drop at the German Championships in May (1:46.44), and Christoph Fildebrandt is peaking at the right time.
- Belgium: The Belgians have been sneaky-good this Olympiad, finaling or medaling in all three of their major international meets since London. Veteran Pieter Timmers has been the linchpin, but Glenn Surgeloose, who recently dropped a 1:46.91 after a three-year plateau, could be the difference-maker
- Poland: We’re familiar with Jan Switkowski’s work at the University of Florida, but watch for Kacper Marjchrzak (1:46.46 at Polish Nationals), as well
| Place | Country | Best Time (Since 2012 Olympics) | Predicted Time in Rio |
| 1 | USA | 7:01.72 | 7:00.85 |
| 2 | Australia | 7:05.34 | 7:03.15 |
| 3 | Great Britain | 7:04.33 | 7:03.50 |
| 4 | Japan | 7:04.95 | 7:03.85 |
| 5 | Russia | 7:03.92 | 7:05:10 |
| 6 | France | 7:04.71 | 7:05.75 |
| 7 | Germany | 7:09.00 | 7:07.90 |
| 8 | Netherlands | 7:09.64 | 7:08.00 |
I don’t think Phelps should skip this event. Even if Phelps goes 1:46, USA will win this race and Phelps should not give up on this chance of winning 1 easy gold medal. Conor Dwyer and Townley Haas are sure locks for this race. Michael Phelps should also participate and that makes it 3 guys.
Lochte will earn a gold medal if he swims in prelims. Lochte, Conger, Gunnar Bentz and Clark Smith should swim the prelims and either Conger or Lochte should progress to the final.
Finals Prediction
Haas- 1:45
Lochte/Conger- 1:45.3
Phelps- 1:44.7
Dwyer- 1:44.5
Final Time- 6:59.5 Gold for USA
Could any one check for me who is the last US guy to split 1:44 at 4×200?
Just out of curious, I can only recall Phelps 4 years ago.
Lochte in Barcelona
Sun 1:43 split in Barcelona
Sorry I didn’t know you meant US
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m pretty sure it was indicated by Phelps that he would pass on the 4×200. Not sure that the turnaround after 200fly gives him enough recovery time either. Plus I think the U.S. can win this one without him. If Lochte is back in 1:45.mid form that he has been in recent years, then all of the flying starts on the U.S. team could potentially be sub 1:45. No other country can challenge that.
Just use 3-6 from trials (Conger, Lochte, Bentz, Smith) in prelims, and the 2 fastest (which I’m sure will be Conger and Lochte) get to swim finals with Haas and Dwyer.
Still the same mystery. Will MP swim or not that event?
The only thing which could prevent USA from winning the gold would be MP in big trouble just after swimming a very intense 200 fly final.
That’s one of the many reasons why I didn’t want to see him swim the 200 fly. I just fear that he dies just after a grueling 200 fly.
But once again I just hope he will make me wrong and will win the gold in both events. 😎
2 possible line-ups for USA:
MP/Lochte or Conger/Haas/Dwyer
Haas/Lochte/Conger/Dwyer
France has 3 very solid legs with Agnel, Stravius and Pothain. But it lacks a decent 4th guy and… Read more »
The Netherlands won the 2016 European championship in a time of 7:07.82 (Dion Dreesens: 1:47.92, Maarten Brzoskowski: 1:46.55, Kyle Stolk: 1:47.88, Sebastiaan Verschuren: 1:45.47). While I don’t see them winning a medal, I think they can definitely go faster than 7:08:00 as written in this article. I also think Italy have a good chance of making the final
Many dutch swimmers seemed to peak for the european championships, the same is true for many greek/ukrainian/italian swimmers, i am not sure that they will be (much) faster in Rio. Most of them knew that they had no chance to win a medal in Rio, so they gave everything to win a medal at the european championships. Many dutch athletes did the same at the athletics european championships in Amsterdam this year. The dutch medal contenders (Hassan and Schippers) on the other hand didnt bother to peak for their home european championships, in order to be at their best in Rio.
And Dreesens swam a full second faster (1:46.93) on first in the heats
Before making predictions it’s good to look at the times form European Championships form this year
It’s annoying that Swimswam always forgets about many european countries which will surely make the final
Which are European countries not listed in Swimswam prediction which surely make the final?
Belgium, Poland, Italy
So which of the 8 countries that Belgium, Poland and Italy will replace?
USA ?
Australia?
Great Britain?
Japan?
Russia?
France?
Germany?
Netherland?
This relay is all dependent on Phelps potential performance on the 4 x100 free relay. If prelims swimmers are going 48 lows for splits (or 47 highs for that matter), that will not be enough to justify taking Phelps off the relay. So I think Phelps swims in finals and splits a 47.4. A 47.4 will convince the coaches that not only is his freestyle the real deal but also that he is capable of dropping a 1:45.00 flat start for the 200 crawl relay. That makes the relay Phelps, Haas, dwyer and either Lochte or conger. I think Lochte will throw out of 1:45.5-.75 split and that will fall short of Congers 1:45 low, so conger gets that final… Read more »
Maybe not the greatest vintage USA M4X200 of all time, but they will not need to be to win this comprehensively. Being “rolled” in Kazan will have registered loud & clear and they aren’t going to allow a repeat. Furthermore, there isn’t any other team that can remotely challenge them.
GBR took full advantage of the rare opportunity to hit USA when they were out of tune but the odds of a repeat are astronomic. Furthermore, they look distinctly weaker than they were last year and are no sure bets to even podium.
In fact, the bottom 2 steps of the podium could go any number of ways between the likes of GBR, AUS, JAP, GER & FRA. All possess… Read more »
I think you will find that the Aussies are pretty clear 2nd favourites. As a matter of fact, if you see the time trials above in Iain’s post, the Aussies are further from 3rd then they are to the US who is the clear favourite.
Now clearly understand, the US can throw in Phelps & Lochte, which will further their favouritism, but the Aussies have the depth in Chalmers, Hansford & Horton, who swam a 1.45 relay leg in the junior WC a couple of years ago.
You have two solid legs; TFH & Smith. Looking at a 1.45split & a 1.46mid-low
McEvoy is at/near the top of the tree when it comes to the 100fr relay but in this one, he’s very inconsistent. Maybe he will deliver something here but he’s yet to split below 1.46 on this relay, even at meets where he’s in sub48 100fr shape.
Who’s your 4th leg ? Sorry but I wouldn’t trust Mr Tourist outside the kiddie’s paddling pool even with water wings. Horton DID swim a 1.45 split ….. 3 years ago but since then his 200 has been meh. Would be surprised if he’s below 1.47. Hansford is a recipient of inexplicable charity on the part of the… Read more »
Mr Tourist was poor 2012 Olympics & 2013 WC.
However, he had a flying start 1.45.8 in the 2014 commonwealth games & a 1.47.05 flat start last year. I would accept either of those as my 4th swimmer.
As for McEvoy, he will be swimming one 200 free in RIO, the 4×200 & I expect that to be amongst the top 5 in the whole race.
Add the other 2 safe bets, you have your silver medalist. You still have depth in Horton, who can go 1.45, Chalmers & Hansford, both solid 1.47 low swimmers. Outside of US, I do not see any other country with a low 1.47 4th swimmer.
Italy swam 7:08 at the Euros this year. Why aren’t they even expected to be in the final?
Beacuse swimswam underestimate all european countries
Or because it would be crazy to expect the USA and Australia not to make it, Japan has two 1:45 studs, and there are only 5 spots left to choose 10+ potential countries from Europe.