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Rio Hypothetical 200 Free: Hagino Vs. ‘Insert American Swimmer Here’

During the 3rd finals session of the 2016 Japanese Olympic Trials, 21-year-old multi-event threat Kosuke Hagino showed the world he is back to form. Hagino missed the 2015 FINA World Championships due to a bike incident, which left him with an injured elbow and out of Kazan, but the stud has been throwing down fast times in his pet 200m IM, 400m IM and 200m free events since his return to competition earlier this year.

Specifically while competing in Tokyo at the Japanese Trials, Hagino scorched the field with a 1:45.50 200m freestyle, scoring the world’s new top-ranked time, just tenths off his own national record.

The fact that the Japanese squad has such a stand-out 200m freestyler in Hagino paired with the collective sigh of French relief when the FFN announced recently that Yannick Agnel would be able to defend his 200m freestyle gold medal from London should he choose to do so, simply put a spotlight on the fact that America lacks a stand-alone 200m freestyle stud.

Yes, America no doubt has freestyle talent that can compete on the worldwide stage in terms of depth and in fielding a dangerous 800m freestyle relay, but the squad of the stars and stripes has yet to render a true favorite, like a Hagino or Agnel, who stands out among the rest.

Options for a possible 200m freestyle break-out at U.S. Trials:

Michael Phelps

America’s go-to 200m freestyler in the past, Michael Phelps, has left the individual event off of his most likely schedule for Rio. In an interview back in January, Phelps’ Coach Bob Bowman was quoted as stating “ probably not” when asked if the 18-time gold medalist would indeed target the race individually for the 2016 Olympic Games. Bowman said  “He’s probably going to be doing enough to show that he should be in the relays.”

Since his comeback Phelps’ most notable times include the 1:48.20 he clocked at the Arena Pro Swim Series in Santa Clara in 2014 along with the 1:48.87 he registered at the Austin stop earlier this year. The event is obviously not a priority on an individual level.

Conor Dwyer

Dwyer was a member of the American 800m freestyle relay whose gold medal-winning streak at every World Championships since 2005 was snapped by a surprise win by the Great Britain squad in Kazan. GBR had a break-out star of its own at the Worlds meet in the form of 200m freestyle World Champion, James Guy, who somewhat surprisingly took the individual gold over Chinese powerhouse Sun Yang. In the American 800m freestyle relay, Dwyer split a solid 1:45.33, but a time that sits just .17 faster than Hagino’s flat start today at Japanese Trials.

Individually in Kazan, Dwyer scored a mark of 1:46.64 to finish 9th and out of the finals at Worlds. He earned essentially the same result last December at the U.S. Nationals meet, touching in 1:46.62.

Maxime Rooney

Young champion Maxime Rooney shows promise, but at just 17 years of age, Rooney’s best time is the 1:47.10 he scored at U.S. Nationals, a far cry from the 1:45’s of the world. Rooney’s time from Winter Nationals was 1:48.00, so the teenager has yet to delve into the 1:46 territory, let alone the 1:45-and-below territory most likely needed to even get into the semi-finals in Rio.

But, there’s no denying Rooney is a rising star that continues to improve. A high-pressure, yet hugely rewarding meet such as U.S. Olympic Trials may be just the environment Rooney needs to knock out the 200m freestyle swim of his life.

Townley Haas

Exploding in a big way at the NCAA Championships was Texas freshman Townley Haas, scored individual wins in the 500y and 200y freestyle events. After setting the pool on fire with a 1:30.52 for the fastest 800 free relay split in history on day 1 of the NCAA meet, Haas cranked out a new NCAA record in the individual version of the 200m freestyle event, wow-ing the college world with an eye-popping 1:30.46.

In an Olympic year, the gears start grinding as to what this could translate to in terms of a 200 freestyle meters swim for Haas, a young gun whose fastest 200m freestyle up to this point was the 1:47.55 he earned last summer. Riding the momentum of an unbelievable freshman year at Texas, could Haas be the one to establish himself as a worldwide threat in the 200m freestyle at U.S. Trials?

These are just a few of the male swimmers who enter the America 200m freestyle event conversation. Discuss who you think has a shot in the comments.

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SWIMMER
8 years ago

Matt Mclean is someone everyone is forgetting about… was on the gold medal relay in 2012…

skipper
8 years ago

No American better than 5th- they will step up to achieve that as well. McEnvoy, Higano, Yang(with the obvious *) too good along with guy and co. Full focus should be on the 4×200. Looking at times on the table currently and not predicted trials/olympics step ups(phelps, who knows really what he will do)- Americans will need everything to defend the title. Gotta love Olympic year

thomaslurzfan
8 years ago

What a ridiculous title …
No Biedermann, Guy or McEvoy BUT Agnel and some american guy? You cant be serious about this prediction!

thomaslurzfan
Reply to  thomaslurzfan
8 years ago

I forgot Yang …
I think sub 1:47 will easily be enough to make the semifinal and 1:46 low for the final. I think Biedermann, Guy, Yang and Hagino are sure to make the final. The other 4 spots will go to 4 out of the 2 americans, the 2 australians, the 2 french, Le Clos, Stjepanovic and maybe a second brit.

Daz
8 years ago

You forgot the two Aussies that after our Nationals are currently joint second behind the Japanese swimmer. Americans may well easily miss out entirely on a medal let alone the Gold!

bobo gigi
8 years ago

Even if I don’t think Lochte would medal if he qualified for Rio in that event, he deserves at least a little mention.
He’s the most consistent US 200 free swimmer in the last few years.
Now what are his intentions about his individual olympic swims? No idea right now. 400 IM yes or not? 200 free yes or not? 200 back? I think he has wisely given up that idea. 200 IM looks like his only sure individual event for the moment.

MP has only relay ambitions. But I repeat that the men’s 4X200 free final will be 40/50 minutes after a grueling 200 fly final. Not the best way to be efficient in a relay which… Read more »

BayArea Swim
Reply to  bobo gigi
8 years ago

You are questioning that 3 months of specific training won’t be enough for Townley Haas?

Brittany MacLean and countless other NCAA swimmers have proven that less than a month training in LCM is enough to translate their SCY performances to LCM. Is Haas less a man than MacLean?

BayArea Swim
Reply to  bobo gigi
8 years ago

If you look closely at the Canadian trials, you will see that those swimmers who red-shirted actually swam worse relatively compared to non red-shirted NCAA swimmers.

Team Rwanda
Reply to  bobo gigi
8 years ago

Based on the times of the latest tapered meet, Lochte is the best US 200 freestyler. I don’t understand why everyone is ignoring him. If there is going to be an American on the podium in this event (which lis far from certain), It will be Lochte

BayArea Swim
Reply to  Team Rwanda
8 years ago

I agree.

This is Swimswam throwing shades against Lochte.

dmswim
Reply to  bobo gigi
8 years ago

Three months of LCM training can potentially make a huge difference for Haas as he has never trained LCM before. His club team, NOVA, only has a SCY pool so even the limited LCM training (3 months) he is getting at Texas is the most he’s ever done.

MG
Reply to  dmswim
8 years ago

I was just about to say the same thing. It makes what Haas has done in LC all the more impressive, but could hurt him in the conversions that everybody is throwing out there since he has only trained SCY so much. I think he’ll get an individual spot and go 1:45 high most likely. So my predictions are Dwyer, Haas for individual and then Lochte, Phelps, Rooney, Conger for relay spots.

Team Rwanda
8 years ago

Ryan Lochte is not even mentioned?

BayArea Swim
Reply to  Team Rwanda
8 years ago

I know, right?!

BayArea Swim
Reply to  Team Rwanda
8 years ago

I’ll take Lochte over Phelps, Dwyer, Rooney and Haas.

carlo
8 years ago

folks are always trying to convert SCY into LCM. Ridiculous. Why hasn’t Missy Franklin,s 1:39 in SCY turned into a 1:52 in LCM?

OntarioSwimming
Reply to  carlo
8 years ago

Correct. Franklin swam 1:54 LC when she was swimming 1:41 SCY.

So, since her SCY has gone faster to 1:39, according to these people, Franklin should swim 1:52 now.

STephen
Reply to  OntarioSwimming
8 years ago

Id be shocked if Franklin swam a 1:54. Ive also heard Adrian is going to do a 46 in the 100m …hmmm
But wait there’s more. I’m sure the Yanks have a 56 male Breaststroker out there…right.
Oh America

Hank
8 years ago

Haas is “the man”.

About Braden Keith

Braden Keith

Braden Keith is the Editor-in-Chief and a co-founder/co-owner of SwimSwam.com. He first got his feet wet by building The Swimmers' Circle beginning in January 2010, and now comes to SwimSwam to use that experience and help build a new leader in the sport of swimming. Aside from his life on the InterWet, …

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