2023 WOMEN’S NCAA SWIMMING AND DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS
- March 15-18, 2023
- Allan Jones Aquatic Center–Knoxville, Tennessee
- SCY (25 yards)
- Meet Central
- Pre-Scratch Psych Sheets
- Projecting The Cut Line
Data compiled by Andrew Mering.
With Tuesday’s release of the pre-selection psych sheets for the 2023 Women’s NCAA Championships, we’re now able to both project the individual cut line and score out the psych sheets for the event.
In the scored psych sheets, the two-time national champion Virginia Cavaliers come out on top by a considerable margin, projecting to put 464.5 points on the board, 76.75 clear of second-place Texas (387.75).
Note that there is a three-way tie (for 16th in 100 fly) and a four-way tie (for 15th in 50 free) on the psych sheets, causing some abnormal decimal points in certain team scores. Louisville happens to factor into both ties, giving them a projected 246.583 points.
Stanford ranks third with 325 points, NC State is fourth at 301.5, and Ohio State (note: updated now that Ohio State has actually entered their relays) rounds out the top five.
The projections are, of course, just projections, and every season teams vary significantly from their psych sheet points to their actual scored points. But the numbers do give us a starting point to start previewing how the team race will unfold at the meet.
Note: these projections do not include diving, where athletes will be selected via NCAA Zone meets in March.
2023 NCAAs – Projected Team Standings
| Total | Individual | Relay | |
| Virginia, University of | 464.5 | 270.5 | 194 |
| Texas, University of | 387.75 | 245.75 | 142 |
| Stanford University | 325 | 173 | 152 |
| North Carolina State University | 301.5 | 163.5 | 138 |
| Ohio State University | 252.5 | 126.5 | 126 |
| Louisville, University of | 242.583 | 112.583 | 130 |
| University of Tennessee | 212.5 | 150.5 | 62 |
| Florida, University of | 169.5 | 61.5 | 108 |
| University of Alabama | 158 | 82 | 76 |
| California, University of, Berkeley | 129 | 69 | 60 |
| Indiana University | 128 | 55 | 73 |
| Louisiana State University | 119 | 63 | 56 |
| Georgia, University of | 102.75 | 78.75 | 24 |
| University of Southern California | 80 | 42 | 38 |
| North Carolina, University of, Chapel Hill | 75.333 | 21.333 | 54 |
| Michigan, University of | 64 | 22 | 42 |
| Wisconsin, University of, Madison | 60 | 54 | 6 |
| Duke University | 39 | 34 | 5 |
| Auburn University | 34 | 20 | 14 |
| Kentucky, University of | 31 | 31 | 0 |
| VA Tech | 29 | 13 | 16 |
| Texas A&M University | 28 | 28 | 0 |
| Arizona State University | 25 | 23 | 2 |
| Georgia Institute of Technology | 25 | 25 | 0 |
| University of Hawaii | 19.5 | 1.5 | 18 |
| University of Pennsylvania | 19 | 19 | 0 |
| University of Arkansas | 15.5 | 1.5 | 14 |
| University of Minnesota | 13 | 13 | 0 |
| University of California, Los Angeles | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri, University of | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| University of Miami (Florida) | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Cincinnati, University of | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pittsburgh, University of | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0 |
| Northwestern University | 0.333 | 0.333 | 0 |
The Cavaliers’ gap over the field is considerably smaller than it was in last season’s projections, as they were up by 123.5 points over Stanford on the 2022 psych sheets, 479 to 355.5.
Of course, Virginia ultimately performed well above that projection, putting 551.5 points on the board to win the national title, while Texas outscored their seeds by a whopping 84 points (swimming only) to jump up from a projected sixth into second.
Stanford outscored their projections but still fell one spot to third, while NC State dropped two spots down to fifth and Tennessee fell from fourth on the psych sheets to 10th when all was said and done.
2022 Women’s NCAAs – Psych Sheets vs Actual Scoring (Top 10)
| Actual Finish | School | Psych Sheet Points | Actual Points* | Difference |
| 1 | Virginia | 479 | 551.5 | +72.5 |
| 2 | Texas | 232.5 | 316 | +84 |
| 3 | Stanford | 355.5 | 387.5 | +32 |
| 4 | Alabama | 256 | 288 | +32 |
| 5 | NC State | 304 | 279 | -25 |
| 6 | Louisville | 127.5 | 189.5 | +62 |
| 7 | Michigan | 198 | 184.5 | -13.5 |
| 8 | California | 184 | 180 | -4 |
| 9 | Ohio State | 226.5 | 165 | -61.5 |
| 10 | Tennessee | 288.5 | 127 | -161.5 |
*Diving points not included
University of Virginia senior Kate Douglass is the only swimmer seeded to score the maximum of 60 individual points, as she holds the top seed in the 200 IM, 100 fly and 200 breast.
She’s followed by teammate Gretchen Walsh (57), LSU’s Maggie MacNeil (54) and Stanford’s Claire Curzan (50).
Last year, Douglass tied with Alex Walsh for the meet lead with 60 points. This year, Walsh is only seeded to score 32 points, given that she’s the 30th seed in the 200 fly, though she comes in as the defending champion and simply has yet to race the event at a tapered meet this season.
2023 NCAAs – Projected Individual Scoring
| Last | First | School | Seeded Points |
| Douglass, | Kate | Virginia, University of | 60 |
| Walsh, | Gretchen | Virginia, University of | 57 |
| MacNeil, | Maggie | Louisiana State University | 54 |
| Curzan, | Claire | Stanford University | 50 |
| Huske, | Torri | Stanford University | 48 |
| Pash, | Kelly | Texas, University of | 46 |
| McSharry, | Mona | University of Tennessee | 44.5 |
| Albiero, | Gabi | Louisville, University of | 44 |
| Berkoff, | Katharine | North Carolina State University | 43.5 |
| Bray, | Olivia | Texas, University of | 43 |
| Nelson, | Ella | Virginia, University of | 43 |
| Sticklen, | Emma | Texas, University of | 42 |
| Fuller, | Josephine | University of Tennessee | 37 |
| Hartman, | Zoie | Georgia, University of | 37 |
| Sullivan, | Erica | Texas, University of | 36 |
| Fulmer, | Amy | Ohio State University | 35.5 |
| Jacoby, | Lydia | Texas, University of | 33 |
| Stadden, | Isabelle | California, University of, Berkeley | 32 |
| Dobler, | Kaitlyn | University of Southern California | 32 |
| Walsh, | Alex | Virginia, University of | 32 |
| Weyant, | Emma | Florida, University of | 31 |
| Stege, | Kristen | University of Tennessee | 30 |
| Elendt, | Anna | Texas, University of | 29 |
| Arens, | Abby | North Carolina State University | 29 |
| Regenauer, | Christiana | Louisville, University of | 28.5 |
| Ruck, | Taylor | Stanford University | 28 |
| White, | Rhyan | University of Alabama | 26.5 |
| Tiltmann, | Reilly | Virginia, University of | 25 |
| ERTAN, | DENIZ | Georgia Institute of Technology | 25 |
| Hay, | Abby | Louisville, University of | 25 |
| Zenick, | Katherine | Ohio State University | 23.5 |
| Looney, | Lindsay | Arizona State University | 23 |
| Bacon, | Phoebe | Wisconsin, University of, Madison | 21 |
| Stege, | Rachel | Georgia, University of | 21 |
| Polonsky, | Leah | California, University of, Berkeley | 21 |
| Antoniou, | Kalia | University of Alabama | 20.5 |
| Douthwright, | Brooklyn | University of Tennessee | 20 |
| McKenna, | Paige | Wisconsin, University of, Madison | 20 |
| Foley, | Sally | Duke University | 20 |
| Noble, | Kennedy | North Carolina State University | 19 |
| Peplowski, | Anna | Indiana University | 19 |
| Panitz, | Josie | Ohio State University | 19 |
| Kalandadze, | Anna | University of Pennsylvania | 19 |
| Pasadyn, | Felicia | Ohio State University | 18.5 |
| Wiseman, | Avery | University of Alabama | 17 |
| Canny, | Aimee | Virginia, University of | 17 |
| McMahon, | Kensey | University of Alabama | 17 |
| Countie, | Grace | North Carolina, University of, Chapel Hill | 16 |
| Luther, | Dakota | Texas, University of | 16 |
| Stepanek, | Chloe | Texas A&M University | 16 |
| Gan, Ching | Hwee | Indiana University | 16 |
| Podmanikova, | Andrea | North Carolina State University | 15 |
| Breslin, | Aly | University of Tennessee | 15 |
| Hook, | Charlotte | Stanford University | 15 |
| Poole, | Lauren | Kentucky, University of | 15 |
| Maccausland, | Heather | North Carolina State University | 14 |
| Muzzy, | Emma | North Carolina State University | 13 |
| Bach, | Hannah | Ohio State University | 13 |
| Peplowski, | Noelle | Indiana University | 13 |
| Carlson, | Abby | Wisconsin, University of, Madison | 13 |
| Atkinson, | Emma | VA Tech | 13 |
| Van Berkom, | Megan | University of Minnesota | 13 |
| Alons, | Kylee | North Carolina State University | 12 |
| Sheble, | Grace | North Carolina State University | 12 |
| Klinker, | Rachel | California, University of, Berkeley | 11 |
| Crom, | Katelyn | Michigan, University of | 11 |
| Gati, | Izzy | Kentucky, University of | 11 |
| Odgers, | Isabelle | University of Southern California | 10 |
| Tankersley, | Morgan | Stanford University | 10 |
| McCarty, | Eboni | Georgia, University of | 9.75 |
| Lee, | Meghan | Auburn University | 9 |
| Weber, | Emma | Virginia, University of | 9 |
| Harter, | Abby | Virginia, University of | 9 |
| Wilson, | Kayla | Stanford University | 9 |
| Ivan, | Teresa | Ohio State University | 9 |
| McCulloh, | Abby | Georgia, University of | 9 |
| Peroni, | Martina | Duke University | 9 |
| Cuomo, | Lexi | Virginia, University of | 7.5 |
| Platts, | Daisy | Auburn University | 7 |
| Cronk, | Micayla | Florida, University of | 7 |
| Denigan, | Mariah | Indiana University | 7 |
| Goerigk, | Giulia | Texas A&M University | 7 |
| Nordmann, | Lillie | Stanford University | 7 |
| Funderburke, | Nyah | Ohio State University | 6 |
| Flynn, | Lindsay | Michigan, University of | 6 |
| Dennis, | Julia | Louisville, University of | 6 |
| Webb, | Abbey | North Carolina State University | 6 |
| Miller, | Hayden | Florida, University of | 6 |
| Hetrick, | Paige | Louisville, University of | 6 |
| Maceachern, | Paige | University of California, Los Angeles | 6 |
| Nikonova, | Ekaterina | Florida, University of | 5.5 |
| Vannote, | Ellie | North Carolina, University of, Chapel Hill | 5.333 |
| Varga, | Ella | Louisiana State University | 5 |
| Sim, | Letitia | Michigan, University of | 5 |
| Gridley, | Kaelyn | Duke University | 5 |
| Theall, | Olivia | Texas A&M University | 5 |
| Donohoe, | Madelyn | Virginia, University of | 5 |
| Motekaitis, | Mia | California, University of, Berkeley | 5 |
| Dixon, | Zoe | Florida, University of | 5 |
| Rees, | Meredith | Missouri, University of | 4 |
| Bridges, | Jenna | Louisiana State University | 4 |
| Parker, | Maxine | Virginia, University of | 4 |
| McCarville, | Kate | University of Tennessee | 4 |
| Hanlon, | Lydia | Kentucky, University of | 3 |
| Vovk, | Tara | University of Miami (Florida) | 3 |
| Bates, | Talia | Florida, University of | 3 |
| Roghair, | Aurora | Stanford University | 3 |
| Bell, | Lucy | Stanford University | 3 |
| Kraus, | Morgan | Ohio State University | 2 |
| Makarova, | Stasya | Auburn University | 2 |
| Keating, | Anna | Virginia, University of | 2 |
| Coetzee, | Dune | Georgia, University of | 2 |
| Mathieu, | Tylor | Florida, University of | 2 |
| Ulett, | Rye | Louisville, University of | 2 |
| Zavaros, | Mabel | Florida, University of | 2 |
| Davey, | Gillian | Kentucky, University of | 2 |
| Wizard, | Betsy | University of Arkansas | 1.5 |
| Waldrep, | Ellie | Auburn University | 1 |
| Crye, | Joleigh | Cincinnati, University of | 1 |
| Wright, | Cat | University of Alabama | 1 |
| Hetzer, | Emily | Auburn University | 1 |
| Yendell, | Sophie | Pittsburgh, University of | 0.75 |
| Welch, | Ella | Louisville, University of | 0.75 |
| Cooper, | Grace | Texas, University of | 0.75 |
| Guevara, | Miriam | Northwestern University | 0.333 |
| Ulett, | Tristen | Louisville, University of | 0.333 |
Carol Capitani should get more press with turnaround she has done.
Given Durden’s success with the mens program and hitting their taper at. NCAAs, I’m excited to see how the Cal women do with Dave.
161 under seed for Tennessee last year is wild. Hope they can actually follow through on the greater focus on NCs, particularly since their hosting.
*They’re
50 Free: Walsh
100 Free: Walsh
200 Free: Canney
500 Free: Sullivan
1650 Free: Sullivan
100 Back: Walsh
200 Back: Curzan
100 Breast: Jacoby
200 Breast: Douglass
100 Fly: Douglass
200 Fly: Luther
200 IM: Walsh
400 IM Walsh:
4×50 FR: UVA
4×100 FR: UVA
4×200 FR: STAN
4×50 Medley: NC State
4×100 Medley: UVA
it’s so weird to think that neither one of macneil & Huske end up winning a title but it’s not that unrealistic. those sprint fly/free events are so loaded.
I think the psych sheets are missing Ohio State’s 200Medley relay 1:33.95 at Big tens, and 800FR relay 7:02 at big tens. Both would score if they maintain
Didn’t Ohio State get any relays in? They won 4 of 5 at Big 10’s, but there are no entries listed here on the psych sheet?
I was thinking the same
I believe I counted all five on the psych sheet linked above – four have A cuts, 800 is seeded 11th.
Ohio State didn’t enter their relays initially, but a revised psych sheet has been released that now includes them. The scores above have been updated. Ohio State is up to 5th.
UVA’s weakness is distance free right now. With no Tuggle on the psych sheets, Donohoe is the only one who could possibly score points in the distance free category. Texas has Sullivan (my favorite to win the 500/1650), McMurray (potential A or B finalist in the 500 free), and Pfiefer (potential top 16 in the 1650).
Also Bray in the 500
Lucky for them they get Cavan Gormsen next year
good point. i’m mostly talking about this year’s NC’s. Without Tuggle, no Nelson in the 500, and Weyant no longer a Cav, there really isn’t much chance that they are gonna score top 8 in the 500/1650
Donahoe finaled in the 1650 and consoled in the 500 last year, in each case dropping significantly from ACC’s – she is swimming better this year so expect here to score in both and be a top three contender in the 1650.
In virtually every event – the gap between the 6th place qualifier and the 38/39th place qualifier is incredibly tight – a lot of points depend on how well those swimmers perform – hitting the taper vs missing the taper will be key.