While the official invites for the 2016 NCAA Championships aren’t expected to come out until Wednesday, the release of the pre-selection sheets on Tuesday shares enough information (namely, top 16 seeds in each event) to come up with a first round of projected scoring for this year’s meet.
Below is a breakdown of the points awarded for each event at the NCAA Championships:
A Final Points For Individual Events
1. 20 (40 relays)
2. 17 (34 relays)
3. 16 (32 relays)
4. 15 (30 relays)
5. 14 (28 relays)
6. 13 (26 relays)
7. 12 (24 relays)
8. 11 (22 relays)
B Final Points For Individual Events
1. 9 (18 relays)
2. 7 (14 relays)
3. 6 (12 relays)
4. 5 (10 relays)
5. 4 (8 relays)
6. 3 (6 relays)
7. 2 (4 relays)
8. 1 (2 relays)
Note that these scores don’t include diving points. Among the highly-ranked swimming programs that are expected to pick up big diving points as well are #1 Texas, #7 Indiana, #12 USC, #13 Stanford,#14 Arizona, and #15 Tennessee.
Aside from that, the psych sheet scoring shows an expected Texas team on top, 30 projected points ahead of the fastest-rising team in the country from NC State. North Carolina State won’t have any divers at NCAAs, and Texas will have at least two (with chances to score big points), so the more realistic projection expands that gap to a huge 90 points.
Also keep in mind that last year, when Texas won the title by 129 points, they were only seeded to score the 2nd-most points, 3 behind USC.
Also lurking as the projected 5th-place team this year is the Cal Golden Bears, who won the 2011, 2012, and 2014 NCAA titles and have placed in the top 2 at each of the last 6 NCAA Championship meets. Last year, they were projected to finish 6th, put outscored that projection by 127.5 points to come in as runners-up.
Also rising back to the top of the rankings are the Auburn Tigers. The dominant team of the first decade of the 2000s, Auburn hasn’t finished higher than 6th place since winning the NCAA title in 2009. Despite that slide, they’ve generally performed similarly to psych sheet projections at NCAAs, and while they’ve graduated their top diver Fraser McKean from last year, they’re still projected to finish 4th (without much in the way of big-name divers lurking behind them).
See the projection below.
| Team | Projected Score | |
| 1 | Texas-ST | 407.5 |
| 2 | NC State-NC | 377 |
| 3 | Florida-FL | 319.5 |
| 4 | Auburn-SE | 283.5 |
| 5 | California-PC | 279.5 |
| 7 | Michigan-MI | 223.5 |
| 6 | Indiana-IN | 221.5 |
| 8 | Alabama-SE | 179.5 |
| 9 | Louisville-KY | 151.5 |
| 10 | Georgia-GA | 146 |
| 11 | Missouri-MV | 124.5 |
| 12 | Southern Cali-CA | 115.5 |
| 13 | Stanford-PC | 109 |
| 14 | Arizona-AZ | 79 |
| 15 | Tennessee-SE | 70.5 |
| 16 | Ohio St-OH | 60 |
| 17 | Virginia Tech-VA | 58.5 |
| 19 | Wisconsin-WI | 39.5 |
| 18 | South Carolina-SC | 39 |
| 20 | UNC-NC | 33 |
| 21 | Brigham Young-UT | 23 |
| 22 | Princeton-NJ | 21 |
| 23 | Minnesota-MN | 17.5 |
| 24 | Purdue-IN | 16 |
| 25 | Duke-NC | 15 |
| 26 | Harvard-NE | 14 |
| 27 | UNLV (M)-CA | 14 |
| 28 | Penn-MA | 14 |
| 29 | LSU-LA | 14 |
| 30 | Iowa-IA | 13 |
| 32 | Air Force (M)-CO | 13 |
| 31 | West Virginia-WV | 12.5 |
| 33 | Virginia-VA | 12 |
| 34 | Florida St-FL | 9 |
| 35 | Cornell-NI | 9 |
| 36 | Yale-CT | 7 |
| 37 | Notre Dame-IN | 6 |
| 38 | Cleveland State-LE | 6 |
| 39 | Univ of Utah-UT | 5 |
| 40 | Arizona St-AZ | 4 |
| 41 | Denver-CO | 1.5 |
| 42 | George Washington-PV | 1 |
So excite for mens’ NCAAs. Very ready to see the dominince from NC State. I think Simonis Billis is the potential to be the mens swimmer the meet
Lol
Good luck with that dominance (dominince) thing Wolfpack. Texas might have something to bring this meet!
If the University of Texas is projected to be the top scoring team, why does the list show Texas State in that position?
John – Texas State doesn’t have a swim team. The ST is actually their LSC Code – stands for South Texas. You’ll notice it after all of the team’s names.
Oh snap! I want to see Swim Fan race Matias Koski now
My friend, Colin, Matias Koski is good but remember he didn’t make the A finals in the 500 free at SEC?? Oh he did the same thing last year at NCAA too, so he is VERY UNRELIABLE…. UGA can be VERY good if all of their stars swim fast in the morning
My friends, Gunnar Bentz, Pace Clark, and the Litherlands swim for UGA. They are fast. Do not forget about Matias Koski. UGA has good swimmers. I swim for UGA. I love UGA. I think we will do well. Some people like my friends, Gunnar Bentz, Pace Clark, and the Litherlands were not shaved at SEC’s. Oh, silly me, I cannot forget about Matias Koski. He wasn’t shaved either. He is also an Olympian. I think UGA will do well. Go Dawgs! Woof!
Just think that an ACC school, NC State is projected to finish second. in swimming. The same school is ranked number two in NCAA wrestling. It has been a long time if ever that the ACC has developed a reputation in minor sports. The conference has done well in BB and FB so far this season. Watch out for this sleeping conference.
Huh? M and W Soccer, M and W Lacrosse, Field Hockey, Tennis, Baseball … just a few sports where the ACC has been elite, if not dominant for the past 2 decades.
Beat me to it. Virginia might be the best men’s tennis team of this decade. Florida State track. UNC soccer. Maryland Field Hockey and W. Lacrosse. Duke, Virginia, UNC Lacrosse. Duke women’s golf.
ACC has 120 NCAA Championships in its history, and only around 21 (depending on whom you ask) are in football and basketball.
Fair to leave out SU as they dropped swimming, but they won NCAA titles in both Field Hockey and Men’s XC in 2015. Their men’s and women’s lax teams are always in the title conversation as well.
If only IU had their divers this year! Add another 80 points easily.
but they don’t….
Duh! Which is why I said, “If only…..”.
Indiana/Michigan backwards?
Yeah cause Indiana won B1G tens
Michigan Won B1G tens…