A big thanks to Price Fishback, who compiles all this data for us as the meet goes on. Stay tuned for ongoing similar analysis form the men’s NCAA meet thisweek.
2016 WOMEN’S NCAA CHAMPIONSHIPS
- Wednesday, March 16 – Saturday, March 19
- McAuley Aquatic Center – Atlanta, GA
- Prelims 10AM/Finals 6PM (Eastern Time)
- Defending Champion: Cal – Results
- Championships Central
- Live stream: All prelims, Wednesday finals, & Thursday finals (Other sessions will be on ESPN3)
- Live results
Now that the women’s NCAA Championships are wrapped up, it’s time to look back at our daily tallying of psych sheet scores and projected scores to see which teams outperformed their seeds.
It’s no surprise that Georgia was one of the bigger movers and shakers of the meet, gaining 121 swimming points from seeds to jump from a distant fourth to the national title.
We’ve got the full numbers below, but here’s a look at the biggest risers and fallers of the meet, compared to seeds. (Note: these figures don’t include diving).
Most Points Scored Above Seeds
- Georgia +121
- Missouri +64
- Texas A&M +40
- T-4 Arizona +39
- T-4 Wisconsin +39
- Indiana +27
- Minnesota +26
- Penn State +17
- Kentucky +15
- T-10 Harvard +11
- T-10 Kansas +11
Interestingly, 4 teams on that list came out of the SEC, and 4 out of the Big Ten.
Biggest Drop From Seeds To Final Score
- Texas -63
- Tennessee -50
- Virginia – 49
- California -40
- NC State -37
- Stanford -35
- Florida -32.5
- UNC -24
- Purdue -22
- Boise State -20
This list is much more spread out by conference. A few of these teams are also pretty drastically affected by one or two major happenings. Stanford’s 200 free relay DQ is one example – the Cardinal would be at +5 had they kept that relay legal. Texas also lost some big points from seeds with Tasija Karosas scratching out of the 100 back and swimming a bit rough in prelims of the 200 back.
Here’s the full chart comparing psych sheet scores to actual final scores.
The “+/-” category on the end tracks swimming points compared to the psych sheet scores, which only include swimming events. The column in the middle tracks pure scoring from psych sheet to final scores, including diving.
| Rank | TEAM | Final Team Score | Psych Sheet Prediction | Change From Psych Scores (including diving) | Diving Score | +/- Swimming Points Only |
| 1 | Georgia | 414 | 279 | 135 | 14 | 121 |
| 2 | Stanford | 395 | 374 | 21 | 56 | -35 |
| 3 | California | 358 | 398 | -40 | -40 | |
| 4 | Texas A&M | 309 | 262 | 47 | 7 | 40 |
| 5 | Virginia | 264 | 313 | -49 | -49 | |
| 6 | USC | 244.5 | 264 | -19.5 | -19.5 | |
| 7 | Indiana | 228 | 190 | 38 | 11 | 27 |
| 8 | Louisville | 220 | 227 | -7 | -7 | |
| 9 | NC State | 155 | 192 | -37 | -37 | |
| 10 | Michigan | 150 | 157 | -7 | -7 | |
| 11 | Missouri | 139 | 63 | 76 | 12 | 64 |
| 12 | Arizona | 120 | 81 | 39 | 39 | |
| 13 | Tennessee | 111 | 158 | -47 | 3 | -50 |
| 14 | Ohio State | 84 | 94 | -10 | -10 | |
| 15 | Texas | 79 | 142 | -63 | -63 | |
| 16 | Minnesota | 70 | 4 | 66 | 40 | 26 |
| 17 | UCLA | 68 | 20 | 48 | 55 | -7 |
| 18 | UNC | 66 | 72 | -6 | 18 | -24 |
| 19 | Florida | 63.5 | 67 | -3.5 | 29 | -32.5 |
| 20 | Nevada | 56 | 0 | 56 | 56 | 0 |
| 21 | Wisconsin | 49 | 10 | 39 | 39 | |
| 22 | Kentucky | 40 | 14 | 26 | 11 | 15 |
| 23 | Purdue | 35 | 39 | -4 | 18 | -22 |
| 24 | Miami (OH) | 33 | 0 | 33 | 33 | 0 |
| 25 | Penn State | 23 | 6 | 17 | 17 | |
| 25 | Virginia Tech | 23 | 20 | 3 | 3 | |
| 27 | LSU | 21 | 15 | 6 | 17 | -11 |
| 28 | Alabama | 20 | 14 | 6 | 6 | |
| 29 | UMBC | 18 | 17 | 1 | 1 | |
| 29 | South Carolina | 18 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 0 |
| 31 | Arizona State | 16 | 0 | 16 | 16 | 0 |
| 32 | Northwestern | 15 | 0 | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| 33 | Auburn | 14 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |
| 34 | Harvard | 11 | 0 | 11 | 11 | |
| 34 | Kansas | 11 | 0 | 11 | 11 | |
| 34 | Air Force | 11 | 9 | 2 | 2 | |
| 37 | Denver | 10 | 3 | 7 | 7 | |
| 38 | Ioa | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 39 | Nebraska | 7 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| 40 | Miami (FL) | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| 40 | SMU | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| 42 | Hawaii | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| 42 | Pittsburgh | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| 44 | Eastern Michigan | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 44 | Wyoming | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 46 | Cincinnatti | 2 | 12 | 2 | -10 | |
| 47 | Rutgers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 47 | Florida Gulf Coast | 1 | 3 | -2 | -2 | |
| 49 | Oregon State | 0 | 1 | -1 | -1 | |
| 49 | Boise State | 0 | 20 | -20 | -20 |
Anyone know what was up with Pelton this season??
Congrats to Georgia
The Texas women dropped time from seed in just two relays and TWO individual races. They were 0.2 faster in the 800 free relay the first day and 0.84 faster in the 400 free relay the last day. Madisyn Cox dropped 0.18 in the 2IM, and Joanna Evans was 0.69 faster in the 2Free. That’s not being drastically affected by 1 or 2 things, that’s failure to perform across the entire length of the meet.
Bottom line is it’s about getting it done during THIS meet no matter what process the team went through for conference. Much like recruiting class rankings, where 5 of the top 12 ranked classes of 2015 and 4 of the 6 honorable mentions failed… Read more »
It’s interesting that the top 3 best performing (relative to the psych sheet) teams are all SEC teams who had a closely contested conference meet while Texas who had the easiest conference meet performed the worst. One would think the close conference meet would have worn out Georgia, Mizzou, and Texas A&M. I think in the ACC, which had three teams in the bottom ten, the conference meet is very important due to some strong, long standing rivalries within the conference (UVA v. UNC, UNC v. NC State), and coming off of that the athletes are tired and less hyped for NCAAs. Since Mizzou and Texas A&M are relatively new to the SEC and geographical rivalries in the conference aren’t… Read more »
Missouri Tigers are getting it done! They are doing some very impressive things over there in Columbia, MO.
Some though not all of the +/- movement is probably a direct result of how much a team did/didn’t rest for their conference meets. Although, if you believe the hype during said conference meets, many people did not rest/shave etc. and still got their NCAA berths.
Thanks Jared. Very interesting. This is proof why you swim the meet and not give out trophies for psych sheet points!
Ditto
And thanks to Prof Fishback! He is a wonderful teacher. I was not aware of his interest in swimming.