The 2011 Men’s SEC Swimming Championships will begin on Wednesday in Gainesville, Florida, with the Auburn Tigers men looking to extend their streak of SEC Championships to 15 in a row.
At the beginning of the season, it looked like a strong possibility that this wouldn’t happen, with the Florida men and Conor Dwyer showing huge performances. But based on more recent results, including a dominant win over #4 Texas, the #3 Auburn Tigers look poised to win another one.
Diving
The SEC held their diving competition last weekend, which gave the Tigers a head start over their competition before even setting foot on the blocks. Early results after diving hold the Auburn men in first place with 136 points, thanks in no small part to a 1-2 finish in the platform competition from senior Dan Mazzaferro and freshman John Santeiu IV. The Tennessee men are nipping right at their heals, with 133.5 points, before a huge drop-off to the Florida Gators in third at 49 points. LSU (47.5 points) and Alabama (43 points) round out the top 5 after the first three scoring events.
Live free video for the event is available through GatorVision, check out this link for details. Psych sheets are available here.
Races to Watch
In a conference as deep as the SEC, every race becomes a race to watch. But there are a few that stand out even above the massively deep levels of talent across the board.
400 IM
We still don’t know which races Conor Dwyer will swim at SEC’s, and they may not even match up with the races that he will swim at NCAA’s, but if he’s entered in the 400 IM, this automatically becomes the race of the meet. Bill Cregar of Georgia will almost definitely be in this race, and those two represent two of the best in the race in the country. With the way he’s been swimming, I’d have to give the edge to Dwyer, but Cregar, along with a slew of other talented Bulldogs, will force him to battle all the way until the end.
50 free
The dreaded Auburn sprint crew is back in action, and nowhere will that be more obvious than in the men’s 50 free. Depending on who they decide to enter, the Tigers currently have 7 out of the top 10 best 50 freestylers in the conference. The three spoilers in this race will be LSU’s Andrei Tuomola, Georgia’s Michael Arnold, and the darkhorse: Florida’s Brett Fraser. I’m going to give the nod in this race to Auburn’s Karl Krug over his much more experienced teammate Adam Brown, as I think that Brown is going to be looking ahead to NCAA’s.
200 free
Another race that we’re hoping to see out of Florida’s Dwyer (well really, we’d love to see him swim everything) is the 200 free. He’s got the fourth overall time in the country in the event (1:34.33). Even though he’s the defending NCAA champion in the event, he won’t be alone at the top. He will be run up and down the pool by two young and unheralded, but highly motivated swimmers. Sophomore Michael Flach, who last year grabbed more SEC Freshman of the Year honors (four) than any other swimmer, is out to prove that there will be no freshman slump. He’s already bettered his career-best time in the 200 by over a second this season (1:35.53), and is carrying the South Carolina program to some level of National relevance. Also in this race will be Georgia’s Jameson Hill. Only a freshman, he is already nipping at the heels of Peter Benner’s all-time school record in this event of 1:35.31. Hill’s best time this season is a 1:35.97, and he is already being discussed among the greatest swimmers in the history of the vaunted Bulldog program.
The Outcome
Auburn is just too loaded in the sprints this year for anyone to touch them in the SEC. Besides their strength in the sprint freestyles, they also have a very good chance at winning the 100 breaststroke and backstroke, 200 breaststroke, and are heavy favorites in the four shorter relays.
There is certainly a dichotomy in the SEC this year, however. Florida’s strengths and depth lie largely in the longer (200 yards+) events, whereas Auburn’s lie (mostly) in the 100 yard distances. The caveat here is that Auburn will be largely unchallenged in the sprints, whereas Florida will have to fight Georgia tooth-and-nail in their primary distances. Though the Bulldogs are unlikely to compete for the overall crown, consider them the “Green Party” of the SEC: They probably won’t take the whole enchilada, but they just might be able to steal enough points to keep the Gators from winning it all. By the same token, Georgia also has to be careful not to let Tennessee slip by them, especially given the roughly 100 point edge the Volunteers have after diving.
South Carolina and Alabama will be an interesting finish for that 5th spot. These are the two rising programs of the conference, and are both battling to break into that upper echelon with a lot of young talent, but not much experience. LSU and Kentucky, on the other hand, are programs that are rebuilding after big losses the past few seasons. I give the edge to the Crimson Tide because of their depth in the sprint events that will pay off in relays.
Expected Finish Order:
1. #3 Auburn Tigers
2. #5 Florida Gators
3. #10 Georgia Bulldogs
4. #8 Tennessee Volunteers
5. #17 Alabama Crimson Tide
6. #23 South Carolina Gamecocks
7. #21 LSU Tigers
8. Kentucky Wildcats
If it’s just a “year off,” Georgia probably prefers it that way. I’d imagine they’d rather have his eligibility for an extra year later on (assuming he can still redshirt)…they aren’t winning any titles now, and will be losing a lot of points to graduation. If he’s turning pro, then that program has some serious recruiting to do. Jameson Hill and Will Hamilton out of next year’s class are certainly a good start though…
It makes sense that Gemmell take the year off with Open Water having their Trials for Worlds and Olympics in early June. It is all or nothing for OW swimmers this summer and they need to be on the top of their game then so not tapering for conference, NCAA’s, finals, etc makes sense.
Andrew Gemmell no longer swimming for UGA. According to Katie Hoff (today’s Morning Swim Show), he is out with Urbanchek at FAST. I guess it can’t be shocking – awesome to train with Chip Peterson, meaning the two best open water swimmers in the country are in the same program – but still odd. Could hurt them, if not at SECs against Tennessee, then certainly against Michigan at NCAAs in the race for top-ten spots.
Every team does things a little bit differently, though certain teams have reputations for being more rested than others. It also depends on specific swimmers…if someone is trying to qualify for NCAA’s in an individual (and won’t be the part of a qualifying relay), they’ll probably rest more for Conference. If a team is concerned about a relay’s ability to qualify, then they might rest a little more. If all of your potential NCAA scorers are already qualified, and you think you can get all 5 relays in no problem, you might not hardly rest at all.
Which stage of training most team are in right now? I would guess they are still far from entering taper as NCAA is more than a month from now. Is that correct?
@Caio, I spoke with Brett Hawk last week, and am posting our Swim Talk interview today. He goes into a little more detail though not giving away the shop. Hope you have the chance to read!