SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side, or you can find the poll embedded at the bottom of this post.
Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers
RESULTS
Question: What time will win Olympic gold in the men’s 400 IM?
- A sub-4:07 – 62.6%
- A 4:08 – 32.9%
- A 4:09 – 3.1%
- A 4:10 or slower – 1.4%
62.6% of SwimSwam voters predicted that it would take a 4:07 or faster to win the Olympic gold medal in the men’s 400 IM.
This event has had some wild swings in gold-medal times at the world level. Here’s a look at the Olympic and World champions in the men’s 400 IM over the past two Olympic cycles:
| Meet | Winner | Time |
| 2019 Worlds | Daiya Seto | 4:08.95 |
| 2017 Worlds | Chase Kalisz | 4:05.90 |
| 2016 Olympics | Kosuke Hagino | 4:06.05 |
| 2015 Worlds | Daiya Seto | 4:08.50 |
| 2013 Worlds | Daiya Seto | 4:08.69 |
| 2012 Olympics | Ryan Lochte | 4:05.18 |
The trend is an odd one – Daiya Seto has pretty consistently won with times in the 4:08s. But in the years he won minor medals, the gold medalist dropped a huge 4:05 or 4:06. Tactically, perhaps it’s the field overswimming while trying to keep up with Seto’s world-class butterfly.
Seto currently leads the world ranks for the season at 4:09.02. But Chase Kalisz has been 4:09.09 and three other men (Hungary’s David Verraszto, France’s Leon Marchand, and New Zealand’s Lewis Clareburt) have been sub-4:10 already this year.
In a tactical race like the 400 IM, though, world ranks don’t mean a lot for how fast the contenders will actually go in the Olympic final.
About 32.9% of voters predicted a 4:08 to win the Olympics – that’s Seto’s winning time from 2019, 2015 and 2013 Worlds.
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Phelps’ record is safe, but the world’s getting closer.
This is going to be a tremendous race to start off the Olympic swimming.
Kalisz has beaten most of the field before and has the best PB.
Seto will be under a lot of pressure to win the gold in his home country.
Just needs to show that his 400 performance at worlds won’t happen again lmao
I think Seto is going to be surprisingly fast, 4:05 maybe.
I think the opposite. It’s very likely he doesn’t win it.
Bro did lose support from out swimming federation because of a scandal, which caused him to compete as a solo rather than in a team which could’ve caused some loss in motivation, But he has a wife and kid and knows what he needs to do. The field at the games will be tight for sure but I can’t really imagine anyone that hasn’t gone under 4:10 before to produce a major upset.
I don’t think Kalisz winning it will be a huge upset. Historically he dropped more time from trials to the major summer meet than Seto.
And we now have many other swimmers who have gone under 4:10 this year: Clareburt, Merchand, Verraszto etc.
i think it will be between kalisz, seto, clareburt, smith and litherland for the top spots, but i cant imagine kalisz or seto losing out on a medal unless a miracle happens. verraszto went 4:12 at europeans and marchand went 4:14:9 in march but dns at europeans so cant see them contending for a medal. but the names i mentioned at the start are all withing 1.5 seconds so it will definitely be a good race. I mean the worlds wasn’t it for kalisz was it tho, kind of fell off after pan pacs 2018
It you watch the tape from the 2012 Olympics, it seemed Lochte could easily have definitely been 4:04 or maybe even 4:03 if he hadn’t shut it down on the free leg. the last 15 meters seemed very slow.
He clearly died at the end of the race if you look at how exhausted he was afterwards. That being said, if he was swimming that race right next to the 4:03 version of Phelps, I think he would’ve been able to dig deeper and push through the pain for a 4:04 (a la the 200 IM in 2011).
He also could’ve paced it a bit better and not step on the gas as much the first 300.
might have gotten the wr in 2011 if the 400 im was on day 1 like at the olympics
I think that’s probably not true. Lochte had a serious history of trying too hard to swim with Phelps and costing himself places. If he’d been swimming next to 4:03 Phelps, I think he would have pushed the breast even harder and died worse. I think a 4:07 is more likely than a 4:04 if he doesn’t have that big lead.
He was a great, great racer but he just could not help himself from allowing Michael to dictate how they were gonna swim most of those big IM battles, and he almost always paid for it.
Magic suits really helped guys maintain their stroke length and body position at the end of a 400
You could say that about virtually all of his London races. Lochte blasted out the fly almost as fast as Phelps’ wr, blew the breaststroke leg out of the water and was .5 under pace. He just died hard on the free leg, especially the last 50. He died on the last 50 of the 200 free and 200 back as well.
If the world record were held by anybody else they would agree with you. Since it’s Phelps it means Lochte simply collapsed
Lochte didn’t “shut it down”, his body was shutting down on him after swimming an insanely fast 300.
I was today years old when I realized that 400im LCM times are basically equivalent to 500fr SCY times.
10-15 years ago, sub 4:10 was considered the ultimate elite barrier and all but guaranteed a podium finish at OG’s/NCAA’s, but recently we’re seeing more and more lesser-known swimmers getting under the mark. Of course Phelps’ 4:03 is an extreme outlier, but aside from him and 2012 Lochte, most podium times in the two events have mirrored each other.
Imagine the meltdown a 4:03 500 would’ve caused in ’08
The thing that trips me out is that the first time he broke the WR, Phelps did it in a 4:11 low. I wanna say he was the second person under 4:12, and he took it to 4:03 in like 5 or 6 years.
If sub 4:07 doesnt get gold this means the 400 im field has regressed in time. Phelps also probably gets a few extra years before that world record gets broken too.
With the form Seto had at the start of 2020, had the Olympics been held last year I think he would’ve scared Phelps’s mark. I would’ve been almost disappointed if he didn’t clip Lochte’s textile mark and go 4:04.
Even still, I think Seto can go 4:06 on his home soil which should be good for gold. I know he hasn’t had the best outings time-wise at WC’s in the 400 IM, but I think that is more a result of the race being after 3 rounds of the 200 fly and 200 IM.
I think men’s 400 IM and maybe a few other events (men’s 200 fly, women’s 200 fly, women’s 400 IM) actually hasn’t really improved (in terms of the time it takes to make the final) over the last years (2012 olympics: 4:13.33 -> 2013 worlds: 4:15.81 -> 2015 worlds: 4:15.57 -> 2016 olympics: 4:13.55, 2017 worlds: 4:15.69 -> 2019 worlds: 4:15.49), but i think it might change this year. Litherland has the 8th fastest time this year of all the guys who will compete in Tokyo with 4:10.33. I think it will take at least 4:12 to final. Not sure how the winning time getting slower means that the field has regressed. I think the field can progress despite the… Read more »
I think people are sleeping on the potential for an upset here. The extra year has really helped Clareburt, Marchand and Borodin, and I wouldn’t be at all shocked if one of them dropped enough to win it. The real sleeper is Alberto Razzetti though; to go 4.11 in what was effectively his first 400IM in 3 years was mightily impressive. He could turn up and do just about anything.
I have a good feeling about Borodin, I think he will upset at least one of Seto or Kalisz. Marchand went full taper to qualify, so I think he’ll be around the same times, maybe slightly slower. Clareburt has some potential too. I think the podium is Borodin, Seto, and Kalisz, but in what order – I don’t know. If Brendon Smith has another big drop, he’ll certainly be in the mix as well.
Borodin or Razzetti for me too.
Clareburt said at the podcast that he didn’t do a full taper at the trials.
How does sub 4:07 mean 4:07 or faster?
Also: Don’t think it will take sub 4:07 to win, i would predict 4:07.50 to 4:08.00 for gold.
shouldnt options have been “sub 4:07”, “4:07”, “4:08”, “4:09 +”
That’s the reason I didn’t vote. There was a missing category