SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side, or you can find the poll embedded at the bottom of this post.
Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers to decide which NCAA swimmer was most likely to repeat their 2016 event title double:
RESULTS
Question: Which swimmer is most likely to repeat their 2016 NCAA double?
- Caeleb Dressel (50 free, 100 free) – 19.5%
- Ryan Murphy (100 back, 200 back) – 68.1%
- Joseph Schooling (100 fly, 200 fly) – 9.1%
- Will Licon (200 IM, 200 breast) – 1.8%
- Townley Haas (200 free, 500 free) – 1.6%
Cal senior Ryan Murphy was the runaway favorite in our latest poll, earning more than 1000 of the 1500-some votes cast. That’s not terribly surprising. Murphy has a deadly combination of factors that makes him one of the heaviest event favorites of either men’s or women’s NCAAs. He’s coming off an outstanding summer in which he broke a world record and won Olympic gold. He had massive winning margins last year (1.83 seconds in the 100 back and 2.77 seconds in the 200). He’s also facing much less competition in his events than several others on this list, especially with 2016 NCAA 200 back runner-up and fellow Olympian Jacob Pebley graduated and stud backstroker Michael Taylor still finishing his senior year of high school.
Florida’s Caeleb Dressel was the second-highest vote-getter at just under 20%. Dressel, too, is coming off an Olympic appearance and relay gold, plus had pretty sizable margins of victory in 2016 (0.64 in the 50 and .52 seconds in the 100). Dressel also benefits from runner-up Simonas Bilis graduating and third-place Kristian Gkolomeev, a former NCAA champ in both the 50 and 100, not swimming college this year. However, Dressel still has to contend with Ryan Held, the NC State star who was Dressel’s relay teammate on the gold medal-winning 4×100 free relay at the Olympics this past summer. And though he hasn’t looked great yet this year, USC’s Santo Condorelli could also be a factor given his long course improvements lately.
None of the Texas trio pulled many votes at all. Joseph Schooling led his teammates with just 138 total votes, Will Licon had only 27 and Townley Haas pulled a scant 24.
Don’t take that as an expression of doubt on the Longhorns, though. It’s more a factor of all three facing bigger threats than the others in the poll. Schooling was an Olympic champ in Rio, but might not turn out to be the best butterflyer on his own college team. Jack Conger has been chomping at the bit for an NCAA title, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Conger at least split fly titles with Schooling. Licon will face off with Muprhy in the 200 IM, plus Cal sophomore Andrew Seliskar, who seems to really be gaining steam late in the year. And Haas has the enigmatic threat of another teammate: Olympian Clark Smith, who has been dynamite when he’s on, but has misfired about as often as he’s exploded in his college career. Haas also has to fend off finishers #2-#7 from last year’s NCAA 500 free final, including Florida’s Mitch D’Arrigo, who was just nine tenths out of the win.
Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Poll, which asks voters to pick the hardest event:
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C’mon guys, we couldn’t get .9% more for Murphy?
The SwimSwam community really let me down today.
Licon will win at least 2 events again for the 3rd year in a row, will score the most points in the meet again for the 3rd year in a row, and not be considered for the swimmer of the meet for the 3rd year in a row. The church of latter day saints will still be proud of him.
I think the interesting question with Licon is could he win two events for the 3rd straight year… but different event combinations each year? As a sophomore he won 400 IM/200 breast, last year was 200 IM/200 breast and this year he maybe has a shot at 100 breast/200 breast if he gives up the 400 IM.
He will win 3 events this year if he swims the 100 breast. He also broke Kevin Cordez’s American Record that everybody said was going to stay for a long time when Kevin first went 148.
I think Murphy or Kalisz will win the 200IM this year
You seem to not recall that Joseph Schooling, Ryan Murphy, and Caeleb Dressel set NCAA records and and in some instances American records (not Schooling) in 2 of their individual events. Sadly, winning events at NCAAs is not enough for swimmer of the meet. They definitely deserved this award.
Will Licon is not concerned with things of this world. His eyes are fixed on awards in heaven
Will Licon is not concerned with treasures here on earth. His eyes are fixed on rewards in heaven
I vote that Henry Cambell will double up in the 500 and mile! UNC is a factory of fast swimming right now.
What’s your deal with trolling specific swimmers? I know you’re an NC State fan and all that, but I figured you would have at least a little bit of class.
If Clark Smith is on, nobody will touch him. We’re talking 4:06.
If he’s on.
Irrelevant comment. This article is talking about who is most likely to repeat their NCAA double. Read a book. #STATEment
I know this must be a big leap of logic for someone of your prowess, but would Clark Smith winning the 500 not prevent Townley Haas from winning the 500, a la the topic of this article? They gotta teach you better than that in Raleigh.
Don’t know who you are. But probably know a degree from NC State is worth more than wherever you’re from.
With grammar like that, I certainly don’t doubt it.
Hahaha please tell me this is a joke. He needs AT LEAST four hours of sleep to break 4:20. To go 4:06 he probably needs like 20 hours of sleep the night before. Imagine all that sleep. Anton will beat him this year #STATEment
It is a long shot, but Shane Ryan is quick at 100 back, and returned to Penn state.
Joseph Schooling has not swam a fast 200 fly since before Rio – his speed is impressive, but he does not seem to be focused on the 2 fly
I bet Conger will beat Schooling in the 200 fly at Big 12s and the prelims of NCAA’s. But Schooling will out-touch him in the final just because that’s Conger’s luck.
Or maybe because of Schooling’s underwater kick on the last 25.
I’m really hoping that Conger can pull out a win in at least one of the two events. It’s his last chance. He’s a senior. ?
I’m looking forward to the next article about the time machine that takes Aaron Piersol back for his 3rd season at Texas.
It’s all about the 68%.
I sometimes think it’s boring to watch Murphy race SCY backstroke. You know he’s going to win. You know he’s going to totally outclass his competition. The best start, the best underwaters, the strongest kick, the quickest tempo, the fastest turns. In theory, there’s no excitement there.
And then you watch him race, and you realize exactly how wrong you are.
Murphy doesn’t have the best underwaters at Cal, let alone the NCAA…
OK I really want to hear your argument. How do you think he does not have the best underwater’s at cal
Murphy really does have amazing underwaters; it’s what helps him in short course. He also put them to good use in Rio in the 100, where he popped up ahead of everybody.
But, in Cal, Tom Shields takes the cake. He is simply insane. I won’t be surprised if he has the best in the world. Maybe Grevers can challenge him, but I don’t know.
Hoffer, Schooling, and Cody Miller all also have next level dolphin kicks.
Especially Miller 🙂
He is the King of it
You’re messy. Lol?
Comment of the year.
I don’t know if they’re better than Murphy’s but Seliskar all has phenomenal underwaters.
*also
Ricky Berens has amazing ones !!! LOL
I cannot remember an NCAA 100 back race where Murphy did not have a huge lead 15 m into the race
LOL. Hennesey (sp?) over at NC State has awesome underwaters. Probably the best backstroke dolphin kicks in the NCAA, right? But Murphy still beats him on every turn, and pushes ahead every breakout.. So what does that really mean?
Really amazed it was only 60% Caeleb Dressel could lose just on the fact that he’s not the only person who can go a 18 in the 50, one slight mistake and it’s over for him. But Murphy is more than a second faster than any swimmer currently in the NCAA and swimming backstroke in both the 100 and 200. Correct me if I am wrong but wasn’t Murphy the only swimmer to even crack 45 last year? Do I think Dressel will repeat? Yes but no one is even close to Murphy in dominance
Caeleb Dressel could sprint a 50 free with his eyes closed. The first 25 to the wall is the same number of strokes each time. He only increases his tempo the last 15 yards into the wall. And his 18.73 this year is already faster than anyone swam last year tapered. Furthermore, the is no one left in the field that is even near his 40:46 in the 100 free.
I bet there will be 2 maybe 3 guys this year that are 41.2 and under (not named Dressel). I am pretty sure he will win both but at least the 100 will be closer(ish) than last year.
Murphy on the other hand is the best backstroker on the planet. LCM SCM SCY open water, bathtub, public park, diving well, there is no length he wouldn’t be the best in
I think Larkin can take him down in the 200m. His PB is better than Murphy’s and he didn’t perform well at Rio. Not denying Murphy’s ability, just saying he still has some sizeable competition.
Larkin swam the best time of his season in rio.
True. I’m just saying he wasn’t in top form for Rio. He’ll challenge Murphy this summer.
His pb is only better cause Murphy agreed with Dave to only break one world record in Rio
I’m pretty sure the main goal was to win medals, not break world records. Records were a secondary concern.
Who are these 2 or 3 swimmers that you are predicting will be 41.2 or under in the 100 free? I’m just curious?
Held can do it, Santo should definitely be able to, Ringgold could also possibly do it
Chadwick too.