SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side.
Our most recent polls asked SwimSwam readers what the top storylines are as we head into the Olympic year:
Question: Which men’s storyline is most interesting heading into the Olympic year?
RESULTS
- The Return(?): Caeleb Dressel – 31.8%
- Loaded & Unpredictable: The distance scene – 29.5%
- Under Pressure: Leon Marchand‘s home Olympics – 19.7%
- Qin Haiyang: Will he fend off Peaty/ZSC? – 10.9%
- Euro bounce-backs: Milak & Popovici – 6.3%
- Other – 1.7%
Question: Which women’s storyline is most interesting heading into the Olympic year?
RESULTS
- McIntosh’s pursuit of first Olympic title(s) – 37.7%
- 100 FLY – 5 fastest ever go to battle – 14.8%
- McKeown’s BK reign – can Smith dethrone her? – 12.2%
- Aussie freestyle dominance – 12.2%
- Sjostrom’s pursuit of (more) Olympic glory – 11.6%
- Ledecky’s legacy – 9.8%
- BR – Can anyone challenge Meilutyte & Schoenmaker? – 1.0%
- Other – 0.5%
Superstars dominate the sports world, and the results of our most recent polls show us just that.
We asked readers what the top storyline was for both men and women as we head into the Olympic year, and the path of two of the sport’s biggest stars came out on top.
THE MEN’S POLL
In the men’s poll, the return of Caeleb Dressel led the way with 31.8 percent of votes, with fans eager to see if swimming’s poster boy of the Tokyo Games can get back to the top of the sport after an extended hiatus and subsequent rebuilding year in 2023.
If Dressel is at the peak of his powers, he has a realistic chance of defending the three individual Olympic titles he won in 2021, though the 100 fly is the only one of the events where he would be the clear favorite if at his best.
In the 50 free, Australian Cameron McEvoy dropped a time of 21.06 at the 2023 World Championships to fall just shy of Dressel’s textile world record (21.04), while in the 100 free, he’s got reigning world champion Kyle Chalmers, world record holder David Popovici and Chinese stud Pan Zhanle to deal with it, not to mention American teammate Jack Alexy who had a breakout 2023.
It was interesting to see the distance freestyle scene place a close second in the poll, with fans anticipating the must-see battles on deck in the 800 and 1500.
In last year’s World Championship final, Ahmed Hafnaoui (7:37.00), Sam Short (7:37.76), Bobby Finke (7:38.67), Daniel Wiffen (7:39.19) and Lukas Märtens (7:39.48) all improved their ranking in the top-11 of all-time in the 800 free, a list that doesn’t even include likely Paris contenders Gregorio Paltrinieri, Florian Wellbrock and Mykhailo Romanchuk.
It’s a similar story in the 1500 free, though Hafnaoui and Finke were dominant at the World Championships and narrowly missed Sun Yang‘s longstanding world record. Still, a battle between those two, and potentially Paltrinieri (14:32.80 best time) and Wiffen and Wellbrock (both 14:34-high) will be circled on the calendar.
Leon Marchand‘s performance at his home Olympics garnered nearly 20 percent of votes, as the Frenchman enters 2024 as the slam-dunk favorite in the 400 IM, while his chances in the 200 IM and 200 fly are more up in the air with defending champions Wang Shun and Kristof Milak possible challengers.
The pressure will be on all French athletes to perform at the Games, but especially those who have established themselves as the world’s best in the year or two leading up, like Marchand has.
Picking up nearly 11 percent of votes, Qin Haiyang‘s shot at sweeping the 100 and 200 breast is something everyone will have an eye on after he pulled off the treble in Fukuoka. Similar to Marchand, Qin’s biggest challengers figure to be the defending Olympic champions: Zac Stubblety-Cook in the 200, and, if he can return to form, Adam Peaty in the 100 breast.
The bounce-backs of Popovici and Milak trailed with six percent of votes—after the two Europeans had dominant 2022s, they struggled in 2023. Popovici surprisingly missed the podium at the World Championships, while Milak withdrew from the meet due to mental and physical fatigue.
THE WOMEN’S POLL
The results of the women’s poll were much more lopsided.
The pursuit of Olympic glory for Summer McIntosh, the Canadian teenager who broke onto the international scene at the Tokyo Games and has quickly blossomed into the world’s best all-around female swimmer, came out on top by a wide margin with nearly 38 percent of votes.
McIntosh will be vying for her first Olympic medals in Paris, having accumulated four LC World Championship titles and eight total medals over the last two years. The reigning two-time world champion in the women’s 200 fly and 400 IM, McIntosh will be the odds-on favorite in both races, though the 200 fly will be loaded with defending Olympic champion Zhang Yufei and 2023’s fastest swimmer Regan Smith.
McIntosh will also be vying for gold in the 400 free, where she’ll battle Ariarne Titmus and Katie Ledecky, while the new Olympic schedule likely means McIntosh opts to race the 200 IM (after she dropped it at Worlds) and not the 200 free (which she won bronze in at Worlds). In Paris, the 200 free final will fall on the same night as the 400 IM.
Taking second in the poll was the 100 fly, where the five fastest swimmers of all-time could go to battle.
Swimmers #2-5 will surely be in the mix: Maggie MacNeil, Zhang, Torri Huske and Emma McKeon.
The world record holder and 2016 Olympic champion Sarah Sjostrom hasn’t been focusing on the event over the last few years, and might end up going all-in on the 50 free, but nonetheless, the 100 fly should be one of the marquee events on the schedule.
Tying for third was the intrigue surrounding the women’s freestyle and backstroke events.
On the freestyle side, it’s the Australian dominance: Mollie O’Callaghan swept the 100 and 200 in Fukuoka, breaking the super-suited world record in the latter, and Ariarne Titmus broke the 400 free world record and handily beat Ledecky and McIntosh.
Can the Aussie teammates win the 100/400 again, and then have another epic clash in the 200?
In backstroke, it’s been all Kaylee McKeown in recent years, having gone undefeated in the 100 and 200 on the major international stage dating back to her Olympic sweep in 2021, with Regan Smith only winning the 2022 world title in the 100 when McKeown dropped the event.
Smith did, however, beat McKeown head-to-head on the lead-off leg of the women’s 400 medley relay at the end of the 2023 World Championships. Can the American upend the Aussie, and win her first individual Olympic title?
For Sjostrom, who will turn 31 shortly after the Games, she warranted votes in her pursuit of (more) Olympic glory, having won just one Olympic gold medal, the 2016 title in the 100 fly, to go along with 12 individual LC world titles.
If she could return to the top step of the Olympic podium eight years later, it would be something.
Ledecky’s legacy also picked up some votes as she aims for a fourth straight Olympic crown in the 800 free, a second consecutive in the 1500 free, and a shot at returning to the top in the 400 free after winning in 2016.
Ledecky needs just one gold medal to tie Jenny Thompson (8) for the most Olympic titles among female swimmers in history, and two medals of any color to match Thompson and Dara Torres (12) for the most all-time. One individual medal would place Ledecky second all-time behind Michael Phelps in terms of swimming medalists.
It’s safe to say there are no shortage of storylines to watch for this year, so buckle up.
Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Poll, which asks: What was the best Phelps/Lochte battle?
Before you vote, go and watch the 2006 Pan Pac final, which was an amazing, underrated race.
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ABOUT A3 PERFORMANCE
The A3 Performance Poll is courtesy of A3 Performance, a SwimSwam partner.
2012 2 IM, if only because Lochte would have absolutely won that if not for the 2 back double.
Obviously these polls will be dictated by demographics. Don’t agree with either result but they were always going to win, plus some of the options conflict the non-US demographics.
But the biggest storyline overall is whether the US can win the overall gold tally, as things currently stand they are due for their first legit medal tally loss in the pool since 1956, (1980 boycott, 1988 GDR were even more doped than 1976).
With that said, like the last time they lost, it will only be a blip in their overall dominance in the history of the competition. They are primed to dominate LA with the wave of new superstars they have coming through the ranks.
I… Read more »
200 IM in 2011 World Championship is hands down the best Phelps – Lochte showdown. It was wire-to-wire from start to finish
Lochte’s 200 IM WR is so underrated, it even withstood the onslaught of Leon Marchand who pulverized Phelps 400 IM WR earlier.
Not sure if it’s underrated, although it’s a crazy record. People have been talking forever about how far ahead of their time Michael and Ryan were in that event, going 1:54 lows when we’re only just now starting to catch up to that.
Btw it just hit me that the record has stood for almost 13 years already which is nuts, and by this point, Lochte has held it for far longer than Phelps had.
Also a 1:54.00 in a textile is wild. Men’s 2 IM was one of the first super suited records to go down too after 09
It’s underrated primarily because the Phelps 400 record was long considered superior, which was ridiculous. I always said that if you switched the two names the proper focus would have been on 200 as the better mark
The results aren’t really too surprising, considering it’s mostly an American audience.
On the mens results, not convinced at all that Dressel’s return will be the storyline of the Olympics. I don’t even think it’s a storyline that’s sure to materialize, given that he still needs to get through trials and make the team in the 3 events. And then he would still face stiff competition in Paris.
Mens distance will surely be a big storyline. Whoever could sweep the distance events and set a WR will make it their meet.
Qin and Marchand both have a chance to create their own storyline at the Olympics. However, neither are 100Fr specialists so they will have to share… Read more »
Half of your grievances are just about NBC, and no one complains more about NBC than US swim fans. The other half seem to be a grudge against Lily King; even if I don’t share your impression of her, she is a divisive figure, I’ll give you that.
I’ve never understood finding more enjoyment in someone from another country losing than your favorite swimmers swimming well. I agree that you aren’t alone is feeling that way as I’ve seen other here endorse a similar point of view. But in my experience cheering for someone’s downfall instead of cheering for someone to succeed falls in line with arrogance and a superiority complex.
It is usually a cascading cycle, when fans of particular swimmers start throwing vitriol at any competitors they have, fans of those athletes will naturally want them to underperform if only for the fans of said swimmer to show humility.
I will never wish any swimmer to lose, only for the swimmers I like to win.
If they get beaten, it was by the better swimmer, nothing else.
But the fans who do the opposite, you are only placing a burden on who you support, especially when claiming certain results as inevitable when they are extraordinarily hard to achieve is extreme arrogance and only leads to unnecessary pressure.
It’s got nothing to do with finding enjoyment in a team losing or not. And it certainly has nothing to do with just one television broadcaster. It’s something the US does across numerous sports not just swimming. When I watch an Olympic sport, I want to learn about the rules, the state of the competition on the screen, the competitors and their history. I don’t want to hear the commentators make derogatory comments about athletes. If they can learn to stop saying these things and be more fair without losing, I’d definitely prefer that. But they’ve been on top in so many things in recent history that all they know how to do is look at athletes from other countries… Read more »
Except it doesn’t work like that. We don’t find enjoyment in a US athlete losing, we are simply (usually) rooting for someone else in the race.
Lilly King has been quite distasteful in her comment about her competitors, the only reason Americans don’t get the dislike for her is because she is a well performing American athlete. Ryan Murphy has also been a sore loser numerous times – there is nothing wrong with hating to lose, but making open accusations publicly is another matter. Nobody but a few Americans do this, because they think they can get away with it on account of their superiority or something. It’s nice seeing them struggle a little bit.
Interesting results. I thought men’s distance would win but otherwise all seems pretty much as expected.
My way too early predictions:
Dressel will make the team in multiple events but won’t be back to his Tokyo best. He might win one individual event but will contribute to relays and help US men defend the medley from a close challenge by China.
Men’s distance: Short wins the 400, Hafnaoui wins the 800 and Wiffen upsets with a WR in the 1500.
Marchand: Wins the 400IM and 200 fly, silver the Wang Shun in the 200IM.
Qin Haiyang: Wins the 100 handily, is a close battle in the 200 but out touches ZSC to take the double.
Euro bounce backs: Milak… Read more »
With the number of distance swimmers at historical barriers, it feels inevitable that we’ll see an outlier performance (or a significant time drop) in one or two of the events.
Has Sweden’s roster been announced? Sweden might be able to win the women’s 4×1 free and 4×1 medley.
True. I know they’ve won SCM relays before but have they ever won an LCM relay?
Best the Swedish women have managed is silver in the medley relay @ Kazan 2015. If Australia can’t retain the 4×1 free title I’d love for it to go to Sweden.
Doubt McIntosh will win 3 gold medals- just too much depth and talent out there, and her program is tough. Much more likely 2 golds….
We’ll see. Some are predicting 5. I split the difference. I think she’ll end up with either 2 or 3. Will be surprised if she gets more or less than that
I think defending her world titles in the 200 fly and 400IM is a great goal to aim for. Any golds beyond that are bonuses
More likely one gold medal.