SwimSwam’s Top 100 For 2024: Men’s #40-31

After the record-setting year that was 2023, we’re gearing up for another exciting year over here at SwimSwam, and part of that is releasing our fourth annual Top 100 list—check out last year’s rankings here.

Similar to 2023, we’ve taken a statistically driven approach reliant primarily upon world rankings and World Championship medals. We’ve also taken into account things such as potential, Olympic medal opportunities, injuries, and versatility. Long course is weighted more than short course, though performance potential in both formats is factored in.

We’ve also moved Russian and Belarusian swimmers way down this list because of their likely absence from the Olympics or either World Championship meet. While that doesn’t preclude them from swimming fast at domestic meets (including whatever Russia comes up with to replace the Olympics), those swims just won’t mean quite as much without the international spotlight.

We’ll be breaking down the top 100 into multiple installments, so keep an eye out as they’re released.

These lists are, by nature, subjective. If you disagree, leave your thoughts/ranks in the comments.

Braden Keith, Sophie Kaufman, Anya Pelshaw and Mark Wild contributed to this report.

Men’s Rankings:

• #100 – #91
• #90 – #81
• #80 – 71
• #70 – 61
• #60 – 51
• #50 – #41
• #40 – #31
• #30 – #21
• #20 – #11
• #10 – #1

#40: Arno Kamminga, Netherlands – When Adam Peaty took time off from the sport it looked like Kamminga was set to take over the breaststroke crown. For a variety of reasons, that hasn’t panned out. So, where does that leave the Dutchman? After a career of racing both the 100/200 breaststroke, the 28-year-old seems to have more focused on the 100 breast; he’s been opting out of the 200, and didn’t make the event final at the 2023 World Championships. He’s still at the top of the field in the 100 breast, as evidenced by his three-way tie for silver in Fukuoka with Nic Fink and Nicolo Martinenghi. Those two have caught up to him and Qin Haiyang has blown past everyone which makes it more challenging for Kamminga to get on the podium than perhaps it once was. But he’s shown that he’s still capable, which is what keeps him in the top half of these rankings.

#39: Roman Mityukov, Switzerland – In the semis of the men’s 200 back at the 2023 World Championships, Mityukov set a Swiss Record of 1:55.85, his first time sub-1:56, en route to qualifying for the final in the top spot. He lowered that record to 1:55.34 in the final and earned bronze. With a host of swimmers who have been 1:55-mid, it’s tough to predict how the 200 back is going to shake out in Paris. But Mityukov backed up his summer swims by clocking 1:55.99 in January—a very solid swim for this time of year. Consistently being in the 1:55 range is a positive sign for Mityukov as he aims to defend (or improve) his podium position. His 1:55.34 showing also ranked #3 in the world last year, and at 23, probably has more time to chop off.

#38: Dare Rose, USA – Rose began to drop time in the long course pool in 2022, but in 2023 he fully broke through and arrived as one of the best male butterfliers the U.S. has to offer. He broke 51 seconds for the first time in the 100 fly at U.S. Nationals to make his first senior international team. Then, he continued to drop time at Worlds, swimming 50.46 to earn bronze. Rose’s rise was especially well-timed for the United States when you add in the context of Caeleb Dressel‘s build back to form. When it looked like the American men would be without a serious butterfly contender (50/100) both for individual and relay events, Rose stepped up and performed well. If Dressel is back on form, the path to an Olympic roster spot gets more difficult but for now, Rose looks like the next man up for the U.S. in the 100 fly. Only three swimmers were faster than him last year and Shaine Casas was the only other American sub-51.

#37: Krzysztof Chmielewski, Poland – In 2023, Chmielewski successfully transitioned from winning junior titles to the senior international stage, though he did make the Olympic final in Tokyo at the age of 17. The Polish native followed up his 2022 World Junior title in the 200 fly with a silver at the World Championships in Fukuoka. Chmielewski wasn’t on many people’s radars heading into the meet, but he made the most of Kristof Milak‘s absence, charging on the final 50 meters to move from 4th to 2nd with a personal best of 1:53.62. Since then, Chmielewski started his collegiate career at USC and has been putting up fast times in yards for the Trojans. His underwaters need work, and with competing in the NCAA fine-tuning that skill, he’ll be even better equipped for the impending rematch with fellow rising stars Ilya Kharun and Thomas Heilman, along with Japan’s Tomoru Honda. The four of them were separated by just two-tenths in last year’s Worlds final. It’s also possible we see Chmielewski, who will turn 20 prior to the Games, push for a spot in the Olympic final in the 1500 free, though the event is so stacked he would need to lop off 20 seconds to be in medal contention.

#36: Shaine Casas, USA – There are maybe three swimmers in this entire list who are more difficult to place than Shaine Casas. Over the last quad and despite a World Championship bronze medal in the 200 back in 2022, Casas has built up a reputation of putting up his fastest swims in low-pressure environments, such as the 2022 U.S. Summer Nationals or the ‘B’ final of the U.S. Open, having set some meet records from the latter late last year. After a tough week of misses at the 2023 U.S. Nationals, Casas made his 2nd Worlds team in the 200 IM on the last day of the meet. He was in the silver medal position at the final turn in the Fukuoka final (from Lane 8 no less) but was unable to hold off the charging Brits Duncan Scott and Tom Dean and wound up off the podium in 4th. Casas’ times (wherever they came from) and his versatility keep him ranked highly, but 2024 will be a critical year for Casas to show that he can be at his best when it counts most. He was 4th in the world last year in the 200 IM (1:56.06), 6th in the 100 fly (50.80), and has the pedigree to make the U.S. Olympic team in both backstrokes.

#35: Daiya Seto, Japan – It’s been an up-and-down quad for Seto. After a disappointing home Olympics in 2021, he’s managed to rebound and earn medals at the last two World Championships—bronze in 2022 in the 200 IM and bronze in 2023 in the 400 IM. Those are both encouraging swims for the 29-year-old, as he’s showing that he still has what it takes to compete at the highest level. The veteran will need to fight to earn a spot on either IM podium in Paris, but the 400 IM is probably where he has a better chance. Though he was 4:09.41 in the Fukuoka final, Seto went 4:07.92 at the Japan Open. Getting back under 4:08 was a huge step for him and should be a confidence booster as he heads into the Olympic year. On the SC front, he could become the first person to seven-peat at Worlds. In 2022, he became the first person to six-peat at SC Worlds in the 400 IM.

#34: Matthew Temple, Australia – Temple is a bit of a wildcard heading into Paris. Not that he’s been inconsistent on the major international stage, but occasionally he’s shown flashes that he could challenge for the gold medal in the 100 fly. At the 2021 Australian Olympic Trials, he went 50.45, ranking him #8 all-time, but then fell just short of the Olympic podium in 4th (50.81). He then took 5th at the 2022 World Championships (51.15) and tied for 5th in 2023 (50.92). However, the 24-year-old is coming off blasting a Commonwealth Record of 50.25 in December, ranking him #6 all-time. Whether or not he can find that peak 50-low swim when the pressure is at its highest remains the question.

#33: Nicolo Martinenghi, Italy – After Martinenghi had a breakout year in 2022, he had a quieter 2023. Part of that is a function of Qin Haiyang‘s breaststroke dominance, but Martinenghi was also about a half second off his 2022 times in the 50/100 breaststroke (26.33/58.26), the latter of which won him his first individual world title. In 2023, he was part of a three-way tie for silver with Nic Fink and Arno Kamminga who are his primary competition—along with maybe Adam Peaty—as he looks to return to the Olympic podium. Martinenghi is slated to race in Donha as well, providing him with ample opportunities to shine this year, especially if he gets back to his 2022 form.

#32: Ben Proud, Great Britain – Proud is expected to race in Doha, which will give him a chance to medal in the 50 fly, but we expect that the 50 free is going to take up the majority of the pure sprinter’s focus this season. Proud owns a personal best of 21.11 which would put him right in the mix with Cameron McEvoy, but he hasn’t been that fast since 2018. Proud claimed bronze at the 2023 World Championships in 21.58, .01 shy of tying for silver. The 29-year-old ended the year by winning 50 free gold at SC Euros in a European record of 20.18, just .02 back of Caeleb Dressel‘s world record. Like McEvoy, Proud is certainly one of the older contenders in the field but if he can maintain or better his 2023 form then he’ll be in a good position to earn his first Olympic medal. He’s been on fire the last two years, winning every title major title in the 50 free, and there’s only one left.

#31: Hwang Sunwoo, South Korea – Hwang finished 7th in 200 free in Tokyo, memorably breaking the World Junior Record in the prelims (1:44.62) and leading the final by a wide margin through the 150, putting his raw ability and fearlessness on full display. Since then, he’s established himself as a true gold medal threat each time out. The South Korean star followed up his 2022 World Championship silver with bronze in 2023, then won gold at the Asian Games in a personal best of 1:44.40. The 20-year-old has plenty of opportunities to rack up hardware over this year, starting in Doha and continuing through SC Worlds. In 2022, he scared Paul Biedermann‘s short course 200 free world record in 1:39.72 en route to the world title. He’s been at the core of building South Korea’s rapidly improving 800 freestyle relay and has also been 47.56 in the 100 free. While he’s capable of the 100 free final, the path to the podium is much more difficult for him than in the 200 freestyle where we expect him to be at the front of the pack.