Taking a Closer Look at Rising Stars’ Santa Clara Pro Series Entries

A couple months ago, Mel Stewart highlighted five swimmers in his Gold Medal Minute episode The New Swim Stars of 2016.  All of those guys had a great NCAA championship meet this year, and there’s been a lot of speculation on how they’d fair in long course this season.  Three of those five will be swimming at the Santa Clara Pro Series this week, and for those of who are interested, here’s a rundown of what each will be swimming at this event, along with a few thoughts/speculation on some of the more interesting entries.  Feel free to share your own in the comments.

Full psych sheets here.

Caeleb Dressel

Event/Seed/Entry Time (* denotes event where 100 seed times are used)

200 free/19th/1:48.64
100 fly/22nd/53.31
50 free/8th/22.22
100 back/59th/58.15
50 fly/17th/*
200 IM/44th/2:05.83
50 breast/62nd/*
100 free/13th/48.97

Dressel has only swam one long course meet all year, and that was the previous Pro Series stop in Charlotte.  He seemed to be pretty beat up from heavy training, and swam in only a brief, resulting in only making finals in one event, the 50 free (and that was a D final).  This is not out of line with what we’ve seen from other Florida swimmers in the past.  Ryan Lochte particularly comes to mind as one who performed similarly at Grand Prix events (as the Pro Series was formerly called) when he swam under Gregg Troy.

His entry lineup here is fairly similar to what he swam there, except for the addition of the 100 back and 50 breast.  The freestyle events certainly aren’t that surprising, as the 50/100/200 are Dressel’s bread-and-butter events, and figure to be his best events for international competition.  The 100 fly isn’t that surprising either as he finished first at the SEC championship meet, and won the console final at NCAA’s in the short course version of the event.

It’s the 200 IM — and the back and breast events — that struck me as really interesting.  It’s quite possible (probable) that he’s just adding some variety to his lineup repertoire to stay fresh.  But you have to wonder if  swimming the 200 IM again, plus some other non-free, is a sign of something more?  His personal best in the SCY version of the event is a 1:43.86.  For what it’s worth, our time converter says that’s the equivalent of a 1:58.49 in long course, which would put him close to the top rung of 200 IM swimmers in the US.

Lochte and Conor Dwyer are both representing the US this summer in Kazan in the 200 IM and the 200 free.  They are also both slated to swim in the 4×100 free relay.  Where’d they both go to college?  Florida.

Chances are that Dressel will scratch at least one of these events, and I’m not suggesting that he’s about to forsake the sprint freestyles for a career as medley swimmer.  But it will be interesting to see what he can do in some of his off events as Troy puts him through the paces on the way to next summer.

Ryan Murphy

200 free/64th/1:51.87
50 back/3rd/*
100 fly/30th/53.52
100 back/3rd/53.20
200 back/1st/1:55.73
100 free/29th/49.88

Murphy’s entries here are pretty standard for him, but it is worthwhile to briefly mention his freestyle events.  There has been some chatter in the comments here recently about Murphy’s international potential in these events, at least for relay purposes, especially after his former Bolles School teammate Joseph Schooling dropped a 48.5 in the 100 free at the Southeast Asian Games.

Murphy’s personal best in the 100 free is 49.88.  That time is from his swim at the Austin Pro Series stop in January, and it currently has him ranked 9th in the US this year.  He is also swimming the 200 free, which is not unusual for him at Grand Prix/Pro Series meets.  He did just swim it last month at the Speedo Grand Challenge meet, and he swam two lifetime bests, clocking in at a 1:51.61.

David Nolan

200 free/22nd/1:48.87
400 IM/47th/3:46.09 (yards)
200 fly/78th/2:09.68
100 back/13th/55.07
200 IM/16th/2:00.35
100 free/19th/49.50

Four years after having one of the most legendary high school swims ever, Nolan fulfilled his destiny, so to speak, when he took down Ryan Lochte’s American Record in the 200 IM by .01 at the Pac 12 Championships.  Less than a month later at NCAA’s, he demolished his own record, becoming the first person ever under 1:40.0.  Of course, this has fans speculating what he can do in the long course version of this event, now that he can finally focus on the longer pool.

Nolan also swam in the Speedo Grand Challenge last month, where he notched a personal best in the 50 free, while also swimming the 200 free, 100 fly, and 200 IM.  He did go 2:04.41 in the 200 IM there, and he is keeping that and the 200 free, while adding several events we haven’t seen him swim in a while.

The most notable event that he is swimming is probably the 400 IM.  According to the SWIMS database, he hasn’t competed in the long course version of this event since 2010.  His best time comes 2009, when he was 16.  Although his time is now 18th all-time in the 15-16 age group, when he swam it only six swimmers ranked ahead of him.  Most likely, this is intended to be more a training swim to help his 200 IM, but it’ll be fun to see if he can set his first personal best in six years in the event, and how he stacks up against the rest of the field.

The most notable event that he is not swimming in Santa Clara is probably the 200 back.  This was Nolan’s Day 3 event at NCAA’s all four years of his Stanford career, and on the long course side, his best time is a 1:59.01 from the 2013 US Open.  The 200 back and 200 IM are back-to-back in the Pro Series lineup, so swimming both be tough, and given his absolute domination in the short course version of the 200 IM, that figures to be his stronger event in long course as well.  I’d put my money on both Lochte and Phelps representing the US in this event in Rio.  However, should one of them get injured or otherwise be unable to compete, it’s going to be wide open for the other spot, and it’d be great to see Nolan get his long course time down to where he’s in the mix.

Finally, it’s worth noting that he’s swimming in both the 100 free and the 200 free.  While Nolan’s probably best known for his 200 IM, and rightfully so, he also set the national high school record in the 100 free back in 2011, leading to lots of chatter about his international potential in the freestyle events, at least as a relay swimmer.  His best times are 49.50 and 1:48.87, both from 2013.