The Biggest Locks & Most Wide Open Events At The 2022 World Championships

2022 FINA WORLD AQUATICS CHAMPIONSHIPS

• June 18-25, 2022 (pool swimming)
• Budapest, Hungary
• Duna Arena
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The myriad of absences at the 2022 World Championships can do one of two things to an event: make it completely wide open or advance the current favorite into near-lock status for the victory.

Such is the case with plenty of races in Budapest, but there are also some races (hello Katie Ledecky) where it doesn’t matter who’s not racing, the event is a lock regardless.

Below find a list of the eight biggest locks of the meet, followed by some of the most wide-open races at the World Championships:

BIGGEST LOCKS

Women’s 1500 Freestyle – Katie Ledecky (USA)

Ledecky is more than 18 seconds faster than any other swimmer in history, and over 20 clear of the next-fastest swimmer in the field. She was forced to pull out of this race at the 2019 World Championships, and things got a little close last summer in Tokyo (if you consider four seconds close), so expect her to stamp her authority on this race once again with a monster swim.

Women’s 800 Freestyle – Katie Ledecky (USA)

Same story as the mile. Ledecky edged out Ariarne Titmus by just over a second for the win in the 800 free in Tokyo, and Titmus won’t be in Budapest. Despite being relatively off form, Ledecky beat the next-fastest finisher (Simona Quadarella) by nearly six seconds, and she also won over Quadarella despite being ill in 2019. Ledecky has already been sub-8:10 this year, and we can expect her to be at least a few seconds quicker at Worlds.

Men’s 200 Butterfly – Kristof Milak (HUN)

Milak breaking Michael Phelps‘ decade-old world record in the men’s 200 fly was nothing short of extraordinary at the 2019 Worlds, and the Hungarian has made the event his own over the past few years. There are just 20 swims in history sub-1:53, and Milak owns nine of them. Since the beginning of 2020, among swimmers who will be in the field next week, the next fastest is Japan’s Tomoru Honda at 1:53.73—exactly three seconds shy of Milak’s personal best.

Women’s 400 Freestyle – Katie Ledecky (USA)

After falling to Titmus at both the 2019 World Championships and 2021 Olympic Games, Ledecky is now the huge favorite to reclaim the world title in the 400 free with the Australian absent. Ledecky was over three and a half seconds quicker than the next-fastest swimmer in Tokyo (Li Bingjie), and holds a two-second gap this year on Summer McIntosh. McIntosh joining the sub-4:00 club wouldn’t be a shock given the progress she’s made of late, but it’s hard to imagine the 15-year-old wrestling this one away from Ledecky.

Men’s 200 Breaststroke – Zac Stubblety-Cook (AUS)

After Russia’s Anton Chupkov was dominant en route to breaking and re-breaking the world record in this event while winning back-to-back world titles, the men’s 200 breaststroke was seemingly anyone’s race coming into last summer’s Olympics. In Tokyo, it was Australia’s Zac Stubblety-Cook who took control and roared home to the win in 2:06.38, and just last month, he broke Chupkov’s world record with the first sub-2:06 swim in history (2:05.95). Now, with Chupkov absent, Stubblety-Cook’s biggest challenger in Budapest will be Dutchman Arno Kamminga, who has cracked 2:07 just once and holds a best time nine-tenths slower than the Aussie.

Women’s 50 Butterfly – Sarah Sjostrom (SWE)

Sjostrom is the only woman who has broken 25 seconds in the 50 fly, and she’s done so 12 times. Even in an ‘off’ swim, she should win comfortably. Her world-leading time this season, 25.05, is also faster than anyone has ever been in history.

Men’s 400 Medley Relay – United States

Great Britain’s key weapon that led them to winning the men’s 400 medley relay over the United States at the 2019 World Championships and making things somewhat close in Tokyo was Adam Peaty, who picked up two seconds on the U.S. breaststroker at the Games and almost 1.5 in Gwangju. Without Peaty, the Americans appear virtually unbeatable, barring a disqualification. Coming in they’ve got the two fastest swimmers in the world in the 100 back, the two fastest in the 100 breast, and the fastest in the 100 fly.

Men’s 50 Free – Caeleb Dressel (USA)

Of course, it’s hard to put the shortest event on the entire program on the list given that anything can happen. But Dressel has shown he’s a step ahead of everyone consistently over the last number of years, and now has seven swims sub-21.3. The only men in the field who have ever been under that mark are Ben Proud (twice in 2018) and Florent Manaudou (once in 2015).

Honorable Mention: Women’s 200 fly, Zhang Yufei (CHN) – Zhang dominated the field in Tokyo last summer, ripping the third-fastest swim ever in 2:03.86. Having only been sub-2:05 one other time, this race doesn’t crack the list, with Hali Flickinger, Regan Smith and Summer McIntosh all not far behind.

MOST WIDE OPEN

Note: “Most wide open” is meant to include events where any number of swimmers could conceivably pull out the win, at least four or more. In an instance where we know it will come down to two or three, we haven’t included it.

Women’s 100 Free

There have generally been several swimmers with a shot at gold in the women’s 100 free, but that seems to have only escalated this year without Olympic champion Emma McKeon in the field. Sarah Sjostrom, Siobhan Haughey, Mollie O’Callaghan and Shayna Jack are all primary contenders, as is Penny Oleksiak.

Women’s 200 Free

No Ariarne Titmus blows this event wide open (also no Katie Ledecky), though many would pencil in Haughey as the new favorite. However, an ankle injury has thrown her status into enough doubt that this race is certainly ripe for the taking, with China’s Tang Muhan and Yang Junxuan coming in on unknown form after clocking 1:54s back in September. O’Callaghan was 1:54.9 last month as well, and Oleksiak was 1:54.7 to win bronze in Tokyo. We also can’t overlook Taylor Ruck, who won the NCAA title this year and appears back on form.

Men’s 200 Free

The men’s 200 free was an absolute shootout at the Tokyo Games, with four men finishing within .46 of one another for gold. In addition to those four in the final, we also saw two others break 1:45 either in an earlier round of the individual event or on a relay lead-off. With silver medalist Duncan Scott out, things are pretty open with gold medalist Tom Dean, bronze medalist Fernando Scheffer, young stars David Popovici and Hwang Sunwoo, and American Kieran Smith all capable of pulling out the victory.

Men’s 400 IM

Scott’s withdrawal makes China’s Wang Shun the clear favorite in the men’s 200 IM, but the 400 IM just got a lot more interesting. Daiya Seto and Carson Foster have both been 4:09 this year, but Seto is coming off a disastrous Olympics while Foster has yet to prove himself on a stage as big as this (though U.S. Trials answered a lot of questions). Then there’s the veteran Chase Kalisz and the rising star Leon Marchand lurking behind, and it feels like someone in this field will get this event back on track and be in the 4:07 range. We just don’t know who.

South Africa’s Matt Sates should not be slept on in either the 200 free or 400 IM, though we do know he’s been dealing with an illness in the lead-up.

Men’s Distance Freestyle

The men’s 400, 800 and 1500 freestyle all kind of toe the line of being wide open. The 400 free ended up being incredibly open in Tokyo, evidenced by the stunning upset victory from Ahmed Hafnaoui, but has a clear favorite this year in Germany’s Lukas Märtens. While Märtens is unproven relative to some of his competitors, only Australian Elijah Winnington—who was in a very similar position to Märtens (in this event specifically) coming into the Olympics before falling out of the medals—has been within two seconds of the German this season. If someone else is going to win this, it’s probably Winnington.

The 800 and 1500 are a different story. Any one of four swimmers could’ve won in Tokyo: Bobby Finke, Florian Wellbrock, Gregorio Paltrinieri and Mykhailo Romanchuk. Now throw Märtens into that mix, as he currently leads the world rankings in both. How Märtens fares in the 400 free, which is on the opening day of the meet, will tell us a lot about what he might do in the 800 and 1500 later, but right now any one of these five could win either race.

If we had to pick one, the 800 is probably more open, given that Paltrinieri fell off the pace in the 1500 in Tokyo, and that the longer event is on the last day of the meet, which works against Märtens. The 20-year-old is also scheduled to race the 200 free, meaning there’s a strong possibility he’ll have raced 4500 meters in individual events in seven days when he steps onto the blocks for the 1500 final.