H/T to Barry Revzin for noticing.
There’s a saying that is popular among the old heads in swimming that “it is harder to make the US Olympic Team than it is to win a medal at the Olympics.” And while there have been times in history where that’s true, it simply isn’t anymore. If we’ve learned anything this week in Fukuoka, it’s that the US is no longer a singular superpower in swimming. The world has gotten too good.
But, that doesn’t mean that, occasionally, the Patriots don’t get a little boost of confidence.
That’s what happened in the women’s 200 back on Friday in Fukuoka, where the time to qualify for the final at the World Championships was slower than the time to qualify for the final at the US National Championships.
- time to make 200m back final at worlds: 2:09.74
- time to make 200m back final at US trials: 2:09.69
This took a pretty unique set of circumstances to happen. It required simultaneously for the US to have a very deep 200 backstroke group at a moment when the world does not. As the world catches up to, and in some ways surpasses, the US, the women’s backstrokes seem to always be a spot where the Americans have an embarrassment of riches.
Coming into the semifinals of the race, Americans ranked 2nd through 6th in the world this year in the event.
World Rankings, Women’s 200 Back, 2022-2023 Season, Pre-Worlds
- Kaylee McKeown, Australia – 2:03.14
- Regan Smith, USA – 2:03.80
- Rhyan White, USA – 2:05.77
- Claire Curzan, USA – 2:06.35
- Kennedy Noble, USA – 2:06.54
- Phoebe Bacon, USA – 2:06.59
- Anastasiya Shkurdai, Belarus – 2:06.95
Updated Through Semi-Finals (Which Hasn’t Changed):
2022-2023 LCM Women 200 Back
McKeown
WR 2:03.14
| 2 | Regan SMITH | USA | 2:03.80 | 06/28 |
| 3 | Rhyan White | USA | 2:05.77 | 06/28 |
| 4 | Claire Curzan | USA | 2:06.35 | 06/28 |
| 5 | Kennedy Noble | USA | 2:06.54 | 06/28 |
| 6 | Phoebe Bacon | USA | 2:06.59 | 06/28 |
| 7 | Peng Xuwei | CHN | 2:06.74 | 07/29 |
| 8 | Anastasiya Shkurdai | BLR | 2:06.95 | 04/08 |
This was arguably the weakest event at last year’s World Championships. As I discussed in the event preview, it’s one of the least-complicated events to pick, as the top two, McKeown and Smith, are miles away from the world.
The event regressed massively after the Olympics. In Tokyo, it took 2:08.76 to make the final. At the 2019 World Championships, it took 2:09.40.
At the 2022 World Championships, that number fell all the way to 2:10.07. The time to make it out of prelims was just 2:16.38 – as compared to 2:11.24 at the Olympics.
In Table Format:
| 2017 Worlds | 2019 Worlds | 2020(1) Olympics | 2022 Worlds | 2023 Worlds | |
| Top 16 in Prelims | 2:11.67 | 2:11.08 | 2:11.24 | 2:16.38 | 2:11.94 |
| Top 8 in Semis | 2:07.64 | 2:09.40 | 2:08.76 | 2:10.07 | 2:09.74 |
| Medal in Finals | 2:06.48 | 2:06.62 | 2:06.17 | 2:06.96 | TBD |
So why did the world regress? Some of it is just situational. Some of the swimmers who should be in the final are not. Anastasiya Shkurdai is from Belarus, which isn’t allowed to swim. Taylor Ruck is injured. Liu Yaxin from China is not having a good meet. Emily Seebohm is pregnant.
Swimming as a free market has a funny way of rebalancing. American women will look at the 200 back and think ‘that’s a tough event’ and choose others to focus on (maybe Claire Curzan, for example, the world #4). Meanwhile, international swimmers will look at a 2:10.07 and say “I think I can get to 2:09, I’ll chase that.” It can be a delayed effect, but it is a market that moves pretty efficiently anyway.
But again, I’ll reiterate: this is unusual. The world has caught up. I realize that by writing this article, I’ve stoked the flames of yesteryore and the belief that it is often true, when it is not.
But it is still a fun, and impressive, novelty. And something for the USA to hang their hat on coming out of a disappointing meet – though it might brush by the real problems: the US is not having trouble with depth, they’re winning lots of medals. They’re just not gold medals. So the next challenge for Colorado Springs will be to figure out how to take this amazing depth in the women’s 200 back and figure out how to turn it into (or overcome it for) a Regan Smith gold medal next summer.
USA’s biggest strength is its depth. It has the most swimmers of any nation by far, so usually you can rely on SOMEONE to produce a winning time even if one or two of the stars are off.
Australia has always had the ability to top the medal table, it just hasn’t worked out because it relied on every single one of its stars being on form, and it’s very rare that’s going to happen. Australia came very close to topping the medal table in Tokyo. Only down by 2 golds, and that’s with Winnington flubbing his race, Kyle losing to Dressel by 0.08, Smith losing to Kalisz when his heat time would have won gold, Emma missing the 100… Read more »
Who cares if no American woman wins the gold tomorrow?
I wish that Regan wins tomorrow but it’s very unlikely to happen.
The medal table at worlds and olympics is based on gold medals.
US swimming has suddenly a problem of big lack of golds.
They struggle to win.
Where has gone that hatred of losing?
I like Regan but her post-race comments of yesterday were really disturbing.
She said each time after her bronze in the 200 fly in 2.06.68 and her silver in the 50 back that she was pleased with the results. I couldn’t believe it! She swam 2.03.87 in Arizona in early June! So either it’s a taper problem… Read more »
100% respect for Bobo from this American. I wish Swimswam could find a way to draft him into writing for them.
Bobo: have you seen the Arnold documentary on Netflix? It embodies Arnold’s hatred of losing exactly like you said above.
In fairness to Smith, the 50 and 100 back winning times were faster than her PBs. It’s hard to criticise her for losing when matching or even beating her PB would have lost anyway.
The 200 fly is really the only race where she was well of where she could have been.
It’s more difficult to qualify for the U. S. Team than the World or Olym pp ic finals because many of the world’s best are shut out by the current process. Why not take the 16 the best time at World’s or the Olympics and anyone who makes the cut, swims. In other words, guarantee an entrant by performance, not limit.
I agree and have said this for years. Like track currently with 3 per country and a weighted world ranking system, swimming used to have the 3 per country entries. That was eliminated in the 80s due to US men and East German women sweeps of multiple events. That won’t happen today with quality and breadth of world swimming, and if it did on occasion, ie US women 200IM the only 1-2 so far, the good for them!
For professionalism of swimming to grow we should see the BEST at the world champs. Many ways to do it without eliminating spots from other countries. My #1 suggestion is a 3rd FINA standard at approx top 8 so that if you… Read more »
We could use the Japanese Olympic A cut as the qualifying time for a country to bring a 3rd swimmer to an event. I think it is normally the faster of the World Aquatic A-cut and the 8th place time in prelim/Semifinals at the World Championships (Ex. Men’s 50 Free for the 2024 Olympics would be 21.88 or faster for the 3rd fastest person from a country).
well what do you expect? you have smith, white, bacon, stadden, curzan. They all would final and honestly Stadden and or Curzan could medal
I’m taking credit for the existence of this article with my premonition during prelims: https://staging.swimswam.com/2023-world-championships-day-6-prelims-live-recap/#comment-1244160
I’d like to thank my family, World Aquatics, and Barry and Braden (for actually writing the article). I’ve used my comment juju for the year, I think.
Ha! That’s pretty good. Well done.
This is amazing….great article….Ya gotta feel bad for Curzan-Noble-Bacon…..
In Fukuoka, the waters did churn,
As swimmers sought glory to earn.
In the women’s 200 back,
The US Trials left a track,
With times faster than Worlds, they discerned.
Can we barter this statistic in exchange for 5 Gold medals?
nope they are only allowing us silver and bronze this year