2020 TOKYO SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES
- When: Pool swimming: Saturday, July 24 – Sunday, August 1, 2021
- Open Water swimming: Wednesday, August 4 – Thursday, August 5, 2021
- Where: Olympic Aquatics Centre / Tokyo, Japan
- Heats: 7 PM / Semifinals & Finals: 10:30 AM (Local time)
- Full aquatics schedule
- SwimSwam Event Previews
- Entry Lists – all events
- Start Lists & Results
As we did with the entry lists for the men’s events prior, we have converted the women’s entries for Tokyo 2020 into a set of presumptive psych sheets for the Olympics Games.
The only differences between these psych sheets and the entry lists that we had access to last week are the withdrawal by Kaylee McKeown from the 200 IM and Mariama Toure from the women’s 100 breaststroke. McKeown has decided not to race the 200 IM despite her 2nd seed in the event to Hungary’s Katinka Hosszu. The decision to not swim the IM will allow McKeown to focus on the 100 and 200 backstrokes in which she is top seed.
Mariama Toure on the other hand was seeded in 46th in the women’s 100 breaststroke for Guinea but the country made a last-minute decision not to send their athletes to the Olympics due to COVID-19 concerns.
The women’s 50 freestyle holds the highest number of entries of any event, men’s or women’s, at 82. The event will be an absolute bloodbath and swimmers will need to bring their A-game from the very beginning if they want to advance past the first round.
As we’ve previously reported, the women’s 200 butterfly is the least populated event and has only 17 entrants at this point. That means that the only requirement to qualify for semi-finals is not getting disqualified in the prelims and not coming in absolute last place. Further, it has been speculated that Katinka Hosszu could drop the event at the last moment to focus on her signature IM events, leaving the event with only 16 swimmers.
| EVENT | # OF ENTRIES |
| 50 freestyle | 82 |
| 100 freestyle | 52 |
| 200 freestyle | 30 |
| 400 freestyle | 29 |
| 800 freestyle | 32 |
| 1500 freestyle | 32 |
| 100 backstroke | 43 |
| 200 backstroke | 27 |
| 100 breaststroke | 45 |
| 200 breaststroke | 33 |
| 100 butterfly | 33 |
| 200 butterfly | 17 |
| 200 individual medley | 27 |
| 400 individual medley | 19 |
Australia leads the way in terms of individual top seeds at the Games and holds 5 overall courtesy of Cate Campbell, Ariarne Titmus, and Kaylee McKeown. Campbell is the top seed in the 100 freestyle with a 52.12 while Titmus has the 200 and 400 free taken care of with her 1:53.09 and 3:56.90. Kaylee McKeown will bring the Aussie total up to 5 with her top times in the 100 backstroke and 200 backstroke which sit at a 57.45 world record and a 2:04.28, respectively.
The USA is next top seed-wise as distance legend Katie Ledecky will try to fend off the field in the 800 and 1500 freestyles. Ledecky has collected gold in the 800 at both of the last 2 Olympics and will be looking to add a third to her resume in Tokyo while also on the hunt for the first-ever Olympic gold in the women’s 1500 free. The only other top seed for the USA is world record holder Lilly King in the 100 breaststroke who, Like Ledecky, will be hoping to defend her 2016 title.
After the USA, China and Hungary each hold 2 top seeds thanks to Zhang Yufei in the 100/200 butterfly and defending Olympic champion Katinka Hosszu in the 200/400 IM, respectively. Rounding out the list, Sweden’s Sarah Sjostrom and South Africa’s Tatjana Schoenmaker hold their respective country’s sole top seeds in the 50 free and 200 breast, respectively.
Number of Top Seeds by Country
| COUNTRY | TOP SEEDS |
| Australia | 5 |
| USA | 3 |
| China | 2 |
| Hungary | 2 |
| Sweden | 1 |
| South Africa | 1 |
Number of Top Seeds by Individual
| SWIMMER | TOP SEEDS |
| Ariarne Titmus (AUS) | 2 (200 free, 400 free) |
| Katie Ledecky (USA) | 2 (800 free, 1500 free) |
| Kaylee McKeown (AUS) | 2 (100 back, 200 back) |
| Zhang Yufei (CHN) | 2 (100 fly, 200 fly) |
| Katinka Hosszu (HUN) | 2 (200 IM, 400 IM) |
| Lilly King (USA) | 1 (100 breast) |
| Tatjana Schoenmaker (RSA) | 1 (200 breast) |
| Sarah Sjostrom (SWE) | 1 (50 free) |
| Cate Campbell (AUS) | 1 (100 free) |
Psyche sheets aren’t everything but it certainly was ambitious of lily king to claim the US women would win every event …
I can’t believe that the Australian media takes her words so seriously. 😆
Not sure if you wanted to do an article on this but Sjostrom has officially told Swedish media she will race the 100 fly. She says she is curious about how much faster she can go and believes she can break 57.
It will be interesting to see if Titmus has improved her walls and underwaters. As good as she is, those aspects have always been markedly subpar. It cost her the worlds 200 in 2019 when Pelligrini dominated the walls. First time I paid full attention to Titmus was 2018 worlds short course 200. Comerford was so superior on walls and underwaters it was like she was stealing a half meter from adjacent Titmus every time. But Titmus hung in there and then found a different gear on the final 25, surging past Comerford for gold. Titmus was so shocked she took forever to turn around and look at the board for verification. Once she saw the result she said, “Oh… Read more »
100 fly heats we have McNeil v Curzan, Huske v Sjoestrom and Zhang v McKeon
Furry Curmudgeon read on AUS Gold prospects
Prohibitive favourite W4X100, W4X200 – will need to torpedo themselves in order to lose these
Clear favourite: W200FS, W200BK – should bat at least 1/2 from these
Narrow/equal favourite: W100BK, W400FS, W100FS – 1/3 is not unreasonable
Realistic gold chance but not favourite: M400FS, W50FS – gold here would be a bonus rather than expected
Outside gold chance: M4X200, M200BRS, W4XMED – golds not out of question but major bonus.
Bottom line: 2 gold
Reasonable expectation 4 gold
Anything above 6 would be a major success.
My call: 4-5 gold, my absolute top line would be 8 but that requires a lot of tight races to fall… Read more »
Chalmers ?
Maybe I could’ve added an extra category “Very outside gold chance” ie possible but distinctly unlikely for that’s where I’d put Chalmers in the 100. Very solid medal chance but I really can’t see him beating Dressel, much as I might like to see it.
These calls are on what I see as the likely outcomes, rather than what I would like to happen.
Fair enough. I’d give Chalmers a 40% chance of winning. Just depends on the shoulder rehab.
As per usual CW, I take you on.
W4X100 & W4x200 – 2 golds.
W200FS W200BK – 1 gold
W100BK, W400FS, W100FS – 1 gold from 2 of first 2, last one 2 favs are Australian, so 1 gold = 2 golds.
M400FS W50FS – Now if you batting 1/2 from clear favs, we should also be batting 1/2 here = 1 gold
Outside chance M4x200, M200BRS W4X100MED, M100FS, W800FS WMixedRelay W100Fly – Australia got 2 outside chance in RIO in Chalmers & Horton, happy for 1 – 1 gold
7 golds, outside chance for 8.
Your propositions are certainly defensible and I’d like to see happen however my list is put forward under the premise of what I think will be the most likely outcomes rather than what I may want to see.
The line of W100BK, W400FS, W100FS are tricky in that you could make very sound cases for all 3 but the reality is that W400FS is most likely line-ball; Masse and Smith are still mighty close to McKeown and I suspect W100FS may be one that goes with meet momentum. Hence I’ve erred on the side of caution.
I do not see either W50FR or M400FS as clear favourites. Realistic chances yes. McKeon & C1 are both up against 50 specialists. If… Read more »
Yeah how did those top seeds go for them last time around…
Top seeds don’t mean anything, USA will easily beat the Australians just like they did in 2012 and 2016 where they flopped, big time
What was the point of this comment? Like, what does it add to the conversation other than making people dislike America? You already have enough people doing that.
I think the Australians are giving the Americans some very good competition as the most country people dislike the most.
This aged poorly 😂😂
I’m drooling over this psych sheet. I can’t wait to watch these hard core women go balls to the wall fast!