The USA Today has released the latest incarnation of their computer-driven Olympic predictions, that span every event of every sport to come from the 2012 Summer Olympics. This update was as of September 7th, 2011, which means that these predictions are the first to incorporate the results from the 2011 World Championships.
The results are compiled without subjective human intervention and are much improved from the first rankings (when they had the retired Larsen Jensen finaling in the 400 free, for example). There are now no “terrible” misses, though there can certainly be strong arguments made against some of their picks. Notably, swimmers who made their first major international impacts in Shanghai (Missy Franklin, James Magnussen, Sun Yang) are moderately under-valued, as all three are picked as silver in their breakout events – Franklin in the 200 back, Magnussen in the 100 free, Sun in the 1500 free. The methodology also seems to have not taken into account relay leadoffs, which might explain why they don’t even expect Missy Franklin to qualify in the 200 free.
Despite its shortcomings, it’s still an interesting list, and should become more-and-more accurate as we approach the games (it’s updated once a month). The rankings are able to pick up on some subtleties that wouldn’t be obvious based strictly on this year’s World Rankings. For example, they’ve picked Matt Grevers to join Nick Thoman in the 100 back for the US, though they don’t expect either to place higher than 6th.
In the men’s 200 fly, it plugs Nick D’Arcy of Australia back into the lineup (he missed Australia’s World Championships Trials with an illness), and leaves Michael Phelps as the champion – and only American A-finalist.
I do really like some of their picks – for example, Eric Shanteau to medal in the 200 breaststroke, as he seems to have been coming on strong the past few months since moving to Los Angeles.
On the relays, the USA Today stats show the USA as sweeping all three men’s relays. In the 400 medley and 800 free, this is a good pick. In the 400 free relay, however, the Americans took bronze at Worlds, though they didn’t have a great swim. Still, the Americans had the world’s best time in 2010, so the pick isn’t completely out of the question.
In the women’s relay, the pick is the Dutch in the 400 free relay (makes sense), the Americans in the 800 free relay (makes sense), but picks the Australians to win the women’s 400 medley relay (they were only 3rd in Shanghai). Of course, the Australians will return Libby Trickett between now and then, so maybe there’s some life there.
As for the overall, Games-wide medal count, the Chinese have moved into equal position with the Americans in the projections with 89, though the Americans are still well out in front in golds, with a projected 40. Click here to check out all of the results predictions for yourself.
I’m a canadian and i don’t think Brent Hayden will win the 100 free… okaaaay whoever made these predictions was smoking crack.
Yeah, the formula could use a touch of tweaking…would be interested to see how it was developed. It tends to reward past performance more than the most recently-done swims, which is probably more true in other sports (especially team sports) than it is in swimming.
although I do think the overall medals prediction is pretty good.
Also I think the women’s 400FR will be much more competitive.
I think The Netherlands will get much stiffer competition from USA and Australia (remember, Trickett will return plus a healthy Seebohm which will make Coutts-Seebohm-Trickett plus if Campbell can return to her best thay will be formidable).
and Franklin will sweep both 200 free/back.
Yup, the funniest is Ryan Cochrane beating Sun Yang and Mellouli getting bronze.
Too funny.
If cseh beats phelps in the 200 IM, I’ll run around my neighborhood naked. Barring any injuries, freak accidents, or God raining down fireballs from the sky, it ain’t gonna happen.
I just screenshotted that comment, and will consider as a legallyl binding contract.
But no, I don’t see it happening either. Though, I do think we’ll get a much better showing from Cseh that we did in Shanghai, as he was battling some pretty bad asthma it sounds like.
did i see that sun yang was not going to win the 1500?
a little farsical in some sports especially in team sports where some countries were already eliminated. the swimming version isnt too bad, but even phelps and lochte are not on the team yet.
I would like to see Shanteau medal in the 200, and being only fourth at worlds it feels like he should be able to, but Gyurta and especially Vom Lehn are still young and improving, and it’s hard to see him (or anyone in the 200) beating an Olympic form Kitajima.