What We Learned from the 2010 ConocoPhillips US Nationals

The 2010 National Championships were one of the stranger ones on record. Between virtual unknown David Plummer knocking off Aaron Peirsol to steal the 100 back crown, Ryan Lochte’s shoes, Josh Schneider’s DQ and subsequent appeals, and the reemergence of Amanda Beard, nothing was a given in Irvine.

Here’s the top 10 things we learned in Irvine.

1. The American Women’s Team Has a Stronger Youth Movement Than The Men’s Team

Yes, the American men have probably the two best male swimmers in the world right now, Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps. But with both of them approaching what is likely to be their last Olympics in 2012, it’s important to start looking towards the future. Apart from Nathan Adrian and Chad La Tourette (at 21 years old), the youngest gold medalist was 24 year old David Plummer, who is probably only the 4th or 5th best 100 backstroker in the US, if everyone is at the same point in their taper. Every other event winner was 25 or 26 years old and in their last Olympic cycle as multi-event super-elite swimmers, if not last Olympic cycle period.

On the women’s side of things, there were 3 different teenagers who won events–Caitlin Leverenz, Elizabeth Beisel, and Chloe Sutton. Elite female swimmers are typically younger, but with late 20’s swimmers Natalie Coughlin and Amanda Beard both qualifying for Pan Pacs, as well as the well-documented exploits of 40-something Dara Torres at the 2008 Olympics, this stigma is rapidly changing. Here’s the data on average ages of each placing at Nationals, as well as the average overall age of finalists, and average age of medalists:

I’m not a statistician, but these numbers show a pretty strong difference. I think if you were to break down the data further and pull out some of the old-age anomolies (Jason Lezak, Amanda Beard), the numbers would be even more striking.

2. Michael Phelps Is the Best Swimmer in the World, but…

Michael Phelps is not in the shape that his coaches, his fans, USA-Swimming, and frankly himself, expect him to be headed into a Championship type meet. He was taken down by Ryan Lochte in the 200 IM, and didn’t seem to feel good about most of his longer races. Yet, he still won. A lot. And set World-Best times.

So we know that Phelps is still the best swimmer in the world. But since 2009, we’ve been hearing about how Phelps was taking time off after the Olympics and World Championships, and not to worry, that he would get back to the level that he had been at. At the 2009 World Cup Series, where he failed to even final in most events, at the 2010 Maryland State Championships, and at these National Championships. We’re still waiting Phelps rediscover his work-ethic and grueling training routine that made him the greatest swimmer ever, and hopefully in time for the 2012 Olympics.

3. Ryan Lochte is Showing that He Wants to Claim that Title.

Ryan Lochte has had a slew of injuries this season. He was out for most of the winter with a torn MCL, and pulled his groin muscle in the run-up to the August Championship Series. But unlike Phelps, he still managed to show up in peak condition. That includes beating Phelps twice head-to-head (200 IM, 200 back), and putting up the only swim worth over 1000 points on the IPS scale in the World this season. Lochte managed to show up prepared for a Championship meet despite his injuries, which adds to the concern over why Phelps was not able to.

4. Amanda Beard is Still Relevant

Raise your hand if you knew that Amanda Beard was still swimming competitively. Now, keep your hand up if you pegged her to final in an event at Nationals. If you still have your hand up, you’re a liar.

At 28 years old, Amanda Beard is back on the scene, having finished second in the 200 breaststroke to qualify for the Pan-Pac team. Whereas female swimmers used to be ancient by about 24 years old, the new generation of old swimmers is showing that there is life beyond that for these women. Natalie Coughlin, who took a year-and-a-half off after the 2008 Olympics, held this up by winning the 100 back at 27, and qualifying as a member of the 400 free relay as well.

But even more interesting is how these women are doing it. They’ve scaled back their training, maintained their youth with new diets and more dryland cross-training (yoga, pilates), and are basically riding the west-coast lifestyle to extending their careers. It is an interesting study in the battle of quantity-versus-quality when it comes  to yardage.

5. Rebecca Soni Has No Equal in the Leadup to London

Rebecca Soni is untouchable in the breaststroke events right now. She can sprint, she can do the distance. In Shanghai 2011, there’s a chance that she will sweep all 3 breaststroke events (50-100-200). It’s likely that she isn’t even tapered yet, or else she would’ve put up even more impressive times. She is the swimmer that I am most excited to watch at Pan-Pacs, not in the sense that it will be a competitive race, but that she will have a chance at breaking a World Record, which is a feat that is no longer the given it once was at these major meets.

6. Despite Rowdy’s Rants, U.S. Distance Swimming Has a Bright Future

On the first night of the USA-Swimming Nationals, Rowdy Gaines roared on-and-on about how American distance swimmers are bad, with no relief in sight. With all due respect to Rowdy (I think he’s a terrific analyst and is a great promoter of the sport), I think he is way off.

The reason it appears that USA distance swimming is falling behind is that the best young distance swimmers are caught up in the fad of open water swimming, and are crossing over to the pool. On the women’s side, there is of course Chloe Sutton, who won the women’s  800 at only 18 years old.

On the men’s side, there’s a whole stable of young guns waiting to score big on the international scene. 21-year old Chad La Tourette swam almost as fast in the mile this year as he did in a rubber suit last year, and at 14:55.39 swam the best mile time in the world. Peter Vanderkay was next, at 26. But behind him, the rest of the top 8 went 17-16-18-23-21-17 years old. Sean Ryan, who is still in high school, has the 7th best time in the world. Arthur Frayler, at only 16, also cracked the top 15 with a 15:07. USA distance Swimming has a strong future.

7. Katie Hoff is Thriving at FAST

Katie Hoff was down and out of the sport after Beijing. She was at NBAC training with Bob Bowman and crew, but was not enjoying it. She stopped improving, and failed to live up to her billing as the “female Michael Phelps.” Listening to her talk about swimming told a story of one of the most heartbreaking burnouts in swimming history.

But then she moved out to California, and caught on with the FAST swim program and all that goes along with it. It was a chance to move away from home and get that “college” experience for Hoff, who never left home to swim in the NCAA. She was mentored by the great Janet Evans, and formed a close bond with teammates and coach that she had been missing. Something clicked on the West Coast, and Katie Hoff is back. She looked amazing in her 400 free, and looked darn good in everything else.

8. Something’s Not Clicking for Kathleen Hersey in Austin

After the 2010 National Championships, fans were perplexed as to what happened to Kathleen Hersey and, frankly, the entire Texas Women’s team. A squad which was on a high headed into NCAA Championship season after knocking off #1 Arizona in a dual meet bombed out at the NCAA Championships.

Most disappointing was Hersey’s performance. After scoring 3 top-3 finishes at the 2009 NCAA Championships, Hersey failed to earn a podium spot in 2010. Rumors flew debating whether or not Texas had blown their taper on dual meets, or if Hersey had simply peaked at a young age.

But at this meet, Hersey caught everybody a little off-guard with how strong she came back at Nationals after a short summer training with Eddie Reese and Kris Kubik. She repeated as USA-National Champion in the 200 fly, and also performed well in her other events. Several of her teammates (notably Karlee Bispo) had strong rebound meets as well.

It’s really starting to make me wonder what’s going on down at the University of Texas, and how the swimmers will react to Kim Brackin if the Longhorns have a repeat performance of last season. The pressure is now on Kathleen Hersey to win her marquee event, the 200 fly, at the 2011 NCAA meet.

9. Josh Schneider Can Compete Beyond College

DQ drama aside, Josh Schneider showed his NCAA performance was not a fluke, and that he is capable of  performing well in long course races as well. Despite the distractions that surrounded his swim in the 50 free, he managed to tie SwimMAC teammate Cullen Jones for second place.

Once he recovers from the broken hand he suffered in the 100 free, expect Schneider to pick his appeal back up and contest for a spot at the 2011 World Championships, if not the 2012 Olympics.

10. Missy Franklin is THE Future of American Swimming

Sure, there have been other swimmers who have been ranked in the elite category at 15. Amanda Beard at the 1996 Olympics is the most recent and memorable example. But perhaps never in the modern era of swimming has a swimmer had the physical and emotional maturity to excel in so many different events at such a young age.

Franklin nabbed her Pan-Pac spots in the 100 and 200 backstrokes (2nd  place), but she also was a contender in the 200 IM and 50/100 freestyles. From the hyperbolic-but-feasible predicions department,  by 2012, I expect her to be at a level where she will be contending for 6 or 7 medals (including relays).

If you’re looking for the next big name to carry USA-Swimming towards the 2016 Rio Games, Missy Franklin is it.